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Originally Published: May 22, 2009

Is the Lakers' confidence shaken?

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By J.A. Adande
ESPN.com
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Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty ImagesKobe's Lakers find themselves in a tight spot matched up with Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.

LOS ANGELES -- NBA playoff update: Momentum is overrated; confidence is underrated.

Confidence trumps momentum. Confidence allows players and teams to ride out momentum shifts against them and wait for it to take their side. Momentum is too fickle. It switches in the middle of quarters, on off days … you never know when it's going to leave. Confidence is underlying. Once it's gained, it sticks around.

Denver coach George Karl brought up the subject before Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinals and how it applied to Carmelo Anthony.

"Even though you all think it's easy to have confidence in this league, it isn't," Karl said. "Even the best of players lose their confidence for periods of time."

But now that Melo has advanced in the playoffs for the first time -- or "has gotten the cloud of not winning in the first round over to sunshine," as Karl put it -- his confidence has been at "Swagga Like Us" level. He has scored 30 points or more in five consecutive playoff games, including 34 in Denver's Game 2 victory over the Lakers Thursday night. Now it's becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy: He's scoring 30 because he expects to score 30. So even though he missed five of his first six shots and the Nuggets fell behind by 14 points on the road, his confidence never wavered. He made five of his eight shots in the second quarter, and the Nuggets were rejuvenated.

"The energy was definitely in our favor," Lakers guard Derek Fisher said. "It seemed like Carmelo got going a little bit, and it seemed like his confidence spread to the entire team. Before we knew it, they were back to life. We had some really bad offensive possessions where we didn't get anything. By halftime they were right back in the game."

Now they're back in the series, with the next game at home. Do they have momentum? No more than the Lakers did when they won Game 1 and got to play the next game at home. The question is whether the Lakers have confidence they can win on the road. You might recall that their last two road games, in the red-shirted environment of Houston's Toyota Center, didn't go so well. They lost both games by double digits to a Rockets squad that didn't have Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady. The Nuggets have Carmelo … and the difference-maker, Chauncey Billups. And they have a 15-game home winning streak.

So where do the Lakers find their confidence in that scenario?

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Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesThe Lakers hit the road, where they've struggled in the playoffs.

"We don't have to find it; it's not gone anywhere," Fisher insisted. "We go in and we play the game to win. Had we won [Game 2] we'd go in with the same mentality: Let's win this third game and try to really take control of this series. So in terms of our mentality, we're going to win. That's what our focus will be."

Normally they'd find confidence from the calming influence of Phil Jackson, who has never lost a playoff series after winning the first game. But their coach hasn't been at his best in these playoffs, and little moves like the brief "mental break" he prescribed for Kobe Bryant in the fourth quarter of Game 2 didn't work. (The Lakers went from a one-point lead to a five-point deficit in the 99 seconds Bryant sat out.) Even Andrew Bynum joined the chorus of critics, saying: "Honestly, I think we need to rethink how we are doing the defense. … They are just attacking it and swinging [the ball] to the other side. It is an easy three-on-two every time that they swing it to the other side."

Bynum is assigning blame and searching for answers wherever he can now, frustrated by a postseason of fluctuating minutes and a tenuous spot in the starting lineup. On Jackson-coached teams, the younger players tend to question the system, and the older players believe in it. That's one reason Jackson likes veterans.

Fisher pointed to the Lakers' inability to use all aspects of the triangle offense when the Nuggets repeatedly denied or disrupted the entry pass to the post.

"Overall, we didn't execute," he said. "We practice ball and player movement every day. If something is taken away, we have something to counter it. We weren't sharp and prepared to counter when they took something away from us."

But if the theme is confidence, the focal point has to be Kobe. His belief in himself never wavers. And you'll recall that the first time the Lakers went to the Pepsi Center in the regular season, he scored 14 of his 33 points in the fourth quarter to procure an L.A. victory. It was one of those Kobe-take-over-and-win-the-game-for-us nights.

Every time the Lakers took a wrong turn in these playoffs, Kobe viewed it as a challenge, not a cause for alarm.

"Who said it was going to be easy?" he said.

I didn't. I had the Lakers winning in seven. I also based that on their winning every game at home. Now they'll have to get at least one in Denver if they're going to advance, and the efforts in the first two games at home would not be good enough to get that done.

The real question is whether Bryant's teammates can regain his confidence in them. Trevor Ariza undid a solid Game 2 by missing a free throw and his only field goal attempt and by committing a killer turnover in the fourth quarter. Sasha Vujacic never made a shot. Pau Gasol missed two important free throws.

There are times I wonder whether Bryant has his doubts about this team, whether underneath the hood it's really just the same group that got mopped up by the Celtics in the Finals last year. No need to wait until June; this weekend's games will tell us whether they're any different. The Celtics aren't around anymore. Now it's an upstart Denver Nuggets team that suddenly has set the standard for the Lakers to match.

"They came here to do what they needed to do," Bryant said. "They have home-court advantage now. Now it's time to go to Denver, see if we can do the same."

Sounds like curiosity. If the Lakers are going to keep their championship quest going, they'll have to convert that to confidence.

J.A. Adande is an ESPN.com senior writer and the author of "The Best Los Angeles Sports Arguments." Click here to e-mail J.A.