PER Diem: April 29, 2009
With an aging roster and little cap space, is this the end of Spurs' decade of dominance?
Kerre Randel/NBAE/Getty ImagesTony Parker is just one of two players under the age of 27 on the Spurs' roster.
End of the season or end of an era?
It's not just that four-time champion San Antonio lost a first-round playoff series for the first time this decade Tuesday night. What's shocking is the manner in which it lost to a team that, let's face it, wasn't that good.
Perhaps the most shocking aspect of this series was the dreadful performance of the Spurs' roster, other than Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. A decade of drafting 27th will do that to you. San Antonio's supporting cast was so ineffective Dallas couldn't guard the Spurs' best player and it didn't matter.
Worse yet, two of the Spurs' three stars had physical problems this season, and one wonders how they will affect the club's fortunes going forward. Manu Ginobili missed half the season with ankle injuries. While he's still capable of playing at an extremely high level, he's no longer somebody you can pencil in for 80 games.
More worrying, perhaps, are Duncan's knee problems. With 30 points Tuesday, he showed he still can be a capable player even with the injury. The problem is, this isn't an "injury" so much as a chronic condition, and it's limiting his ability to be a defensive dominator. He blocked one shot a game over his final 20 contests this season, after averaging well more than two for his career, and his rebounding also has slipped.
One would like to think help is on the way. For the Spurs, help always has been on the way. Over the past decade, San Antonio has been far and away the best-managed organization in sports, and nobody doubts it can conjure up some magic to remain among the league's elite for a while longer.
Unfortunately, two years ago, the Spurs made a bet that the current group could last through 2010 by re-signing several veteran players to contracts that expire after next season. The Spurs already are well over next season's cap level with their commitments to Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, Fabricio Oberto, Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Kurt Thomas, Ian Mahinmi and George Hill. In fact, they're near the luxury tax threshold just with that group.
So forget about any free-agent bonanza coming to the rescue. About the best the Spurs can do is tinker around the edges by buying out the partially guaranteed deals of Bowen and Oberto and using their midlevel exception. They won't have a first-round pick to supplement the roster, either. That was traded to Oklahoma City a season ago for Thomas.
Thus, the Spurs are left with the vexing question of how to get better with a roster that's so long in the tooth. Duncan is 33 and Ginobili is 31, and around them are only more graybeards: Bowen (37), Finley (36), Thomas (36), Oberto (34) and Jacque Vaughn (34).
Even the new guys aren't exactly spring chickens. Bonner is 29, Mason is 28 and Ime Udoka is 31 (it's still debatable whether the Spurs will choose to re-sign him). Parker and Hill are the only current rotation players on the good side of 27.
In particular, it appears the Spurs need some help in the frontcourt to supplement Duncan. For much of the season, they played with only one true big man, as 3-point ace Bonner started at power forward alongside Duncan. The result was the Spurs' worst defensive season of the Duncan era, as they finished "only" sixth in defensive efficiency instead of their usual perch in the top three. And when Duncan checked out, the likes of Thomas and Oberto proved insufficient to hold down the fort in the middle.
Help might be on the way, but probably not as soon as the Spurs would like. Former first-round pick Ian Mahinmi hardly played as a result of injuries but could earn a rotation spot next season. However, he's seen as a project. A higher-level upgrade might await in Europe, where the Spurs still own the rights to Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter, but he seems unlikely to cross the pond until a year from now.
The goods news for San Antonio is that from 2010 on, it is in as strong a position as any team in the league. Duncan and Parker are the only players under contract, and the Spurs should be far enough under the cap to make a run at one of the several major free agents, such as native Texan Chris Bosh.
The issue, however, is what they can do in the meantime. The Spurs' roster issues are deep enough that it's fair to question whether they can be a serious contender in 2009-10. And if they can't, the next fair question is how much that will hurt their standing with prospective free agents a season later.
This much is clear: Without a major infusion of talent and youth at some point in the next two years, the Spurs' quasi-dynasty of the past decade will come crashing to an end. We've had it in the back of our minds for a while, but this series, and Tuesday night's game in particular, hammered that point up to the front.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.


