Originally Published: April 26, 2009

Scouting update: Magic-76ers, Game 5

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By David Thorpe
Scouts Inc.
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Magic-76ers series scouting report | Series page

Incredibly, this series featured a third "walk-off shot" win in four games, and at the same time Hedo Turkoglu may have found his game. This would be a huge change to the benefit of Orlando, which had a great chance to sweep the series despite only one decent game from him. But the Magic still are not able to bury Philly in the fourth quarter.

Adjustments

Philadelphia
• Despite crushing Orlando 10-3 in offensive rebounds, this is an area that the Sixers can do better in. They averaged almost 13 offensive boards a game in the regular season, and a look at how Houston managed to grind out 16 of them against Portland can inspire the Sixers to raise their intensity level when a shot goes up. To win Game 5 road games, great 3-point shooting or a dominant performance on the backboards is typically part of the script.

• When the Sixers do get the offensive board, they should not just go right back up with it if Dwight Howard is next to them. It's too easy for him to block or alter the shot. Better to kick it out and reset.

• Getting Andre Iguodala going early and often seems key, and he's not been able to have four solid or better quarters in this series. When he's defended by Turkoglu, it's hard to post Iggy up, but when the smaller and lighter Courtney Lee is marking him, running him off screens inside into post-ups definitely puts Lee in jeopardy.

• When Philadelphia ran side pick-and-rolls for Iggy, with the screener facing up, Orlando trapped him when he used the screen to go baseline. It was an effective strategy. Better to see him refuse the screen, or have the screener put his back to the baseline and let Iggy attack middle.

• In general, the Philly guards are not coming off their ball screens hard enough. It allows Magic defenders to show and recover without too much work. This puts even more pressure on the Sixers' two playmakers, Iggy and Andre Miller, as the clock winds down, all while Orlando's base defense is still set. Attacking at angles and forcing rotations will get better looks and puncture Orlando's base, which also sets up for better offensive rebounding opportunities.

Orlando
• The Magic's best offensive looks in the ball-screen game continue to be Lee coming down the middle. Philly started having Samuel Dalembert showing more on all ball screens if they were high, and if that continues, Orlando can space out and get a kickout, swing pass and seal for Howard inside.

• Moving those screens high is the key, as it forces Dalembert to cover more ground, or if he stays back, it gives Orlando's ball handler more room to build momentum.

• The Magic just cannot accept getting only three offensive rebounds, all from Howard. It puts too much pressure on their shooters and finishers. All of their 3s and 4s have to do a better job of scrambling toward the rim and the ball after a shot is taken.

• At the same time, playing better and smarter transition defense is a priority. The Magic gave up 21 fast-break points. Miller and Iguodala are the killers, but Orlando can do a much better job of clogging the lanes as they get back. Protecting the driving lanes to the paint is the only way to slow those two horses down (and Louis Williams off the bench, too).

• Orlando is better offensively when it is moving the ball and looking at Howard the entire time. Giving him a chance to seal his guy is optimum, but the Magic's passers need to be toeing the 3-point line. If they get pushed back, the entry pass is too long and Dalembert can poke away the pass.

• Philly treats Rashard Lewis as a guard, so it will switch screens with him and the other Magic guards. But Lewis can be effective backing guys down, particularly skinnier ones like Williams. Orlando can exploit this at specific times of the game, especially when Howard is out.


X factors

Philadelphia
• The Sixers have been red-hot from 3-point range in this series, obviously a far cry from their accuracy during the season. If they suddenly grow cold but keep shooting the 3, it could be a devastating turn for them.

• When locked in, Iguodala has been a true game-changer. Considering how tough the Magic are to beat when they're at home, now is the best time for Iggy to be that player. And he knows it.

Orlando
• The Magic's fans should be a huge factor in this game, excited that their team did not return home down 3-1.

• I normally don't list 3-point shooting in this category, because it is so obviously a factor in any game. But considering how poorly the Magic have shot the ball in this series, it seems very possible that they make up for it, hugely, in this game. They have a good vibe, perhaps for the first time since Iggy's game-winner in the first game.


Prediction

Philadelphia has been impressive in taking some of what Orlando thrives on and stomping on it, but at some point all defensive teams have a bad night, just like offensive teams do. All signs point to Game 5 being that night. Prediction: Orlando wins Game 5

David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for Scouts Inc. and the executive director of the Pro Training Center in Clearwater, Fla., where he oversees the player development program for more than 40 NBA, European and D-League players. Those players include Kevin Martin, Rob Kurz, Luol Deng, Courtney Lee and Tyrus Thomas. To e-mail him, click here.