Originally Published: April 17, 2009

Scouting Update: Magic-Celtics, Game 3

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By Mike Moreau
Scouts Inc.
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Magic-Celtics series scouting report | Series page


The Celtics finally realized that in spite of all of the talk of the Big Three, this is Rajon Rondo's team, and they go as he goes. With increased aggressiveness at both ends, Rondo pushed and passed the Celtics to a blowout win in Game 2. Boston also attacked weaknesses in the Magic defense that will be even more exposed with Rafer Alston suspended for Game 3.

Adjustments

Boston
• Coach Doc Rivers could not have possibly imagined that Paul Pierce would be saddled with foul trouble, score only three points, and the Celtics would win in a blowout. But that's exactly the impact Rondo has on the game when he pushes and attacks. He put pressure on the Magic defense, created for everyone, and caused bewildered Orlando defenders to stand and stare at each other. Rondo was so intent on running that he literally took the ball from the Celtics' rebounders, and look for that to continue in Game 3. The best way for Boston to get a big lead and take the Orlando crowd out of the game is for Rondo to kick things into gear right from the start.

When the Celtics weren't running, cutting for layups, and making open threes, they ran their ball-screen sets to perfection in Game 2. Whomever Dwight Howard guarded became the ball screener, and as Howard slid up and over to hedge on the ball handler, Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis rolled to the basket for the return pass and score. The key for the screener is to get to the basket quickly -- using big steps and moving in a straight line. Both Celtics big men were masterful at this in Game 2, consistently beating the Magic weak-side rotation to the basket.

In Game 3, this execution will be even more important, as Orlando's help defenders will be cheating and coming faster to the lane. If they get into the paint to prevent the return pass, then Rondo or the other ball handlers must read that action and make the skip pass to the spot up shooters on the wing and in the opposite corner.

Expect a deliberate attempt by Rivers to get Pierce going early in Game 3. His three from the top of the key started off Game 2, then he was never heard from again on offense as he was in foul trouble early on. Boston will need Pierce attacking the basket, as the Magic will be expected to do a better job on the perimeter shooters. Look for him in the pinch post and the post extended, turning and facing to jab, shoot and attack.

• The Celtics have also shown confidence in feeding Perkins in the post to go one-on-one with Howard inside. Perkins showed a fearless determination to back Howard in and shoot over him in Game 2, and expect Howard to be more prepared for this in Game 3. With Howard's lane supremacy being challenged, expect him to be extra aggressive defensively. Perkins will look to draw fouls with shot fakes and body leans into Howard if he leaves the floor.

• Boston's defensive rotations were much better in Game 2, as they often both help defenders well into the lane, discouraging drives and attempting to crowd Howard. Perkins did an outstanding job keeping Howard from burying him inside. Perkins was able to dig in and push Howard two to three feet farther out than he prefers, and in post defense, this makes all the difference in the world. Howard's dunks and short jump hooks turned into shots just thrown at the rim from 10 to 12 feet away. This also kept him from rebounding his own shot.

In Game 3, the Celtics will let Perkins battle Howard one-on-one until he needs help, and his position defense without fouling will be a key for them defensively. If Perkins can hold the fort, the help defenders can shade toward the 3-point shooters, who outside of J.J. Redick, have yet to heat up.

• Boston did an excellent job of blowing up the Magic's bread and butter three-man game with Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and Howard playing a dribble handoff-ball-screen game on one side. As we anticipated, Boston sent a fourth defender into this action, and denied the corner cut to the ball. Orlando's timing was disrupted with more pressure on the ball as well, and Boston will need this kind of fight and aggression in Game 3.

Orlando
• Orlando's defense took the night off in Game 2, and this will be the focus of Orlando's coaching staff in preparation for Game 3. In their film study, the Magic won't find many bright spots -- from poor stances to slow feet, to inactive hands and just an overall lack of defensive intensity. Boston came right at them in Game 2, and the Magic just stood still. Expect much greater defensive intensity from one of the NBA's best all-around defenses as they come home for Game 3.

With better effort and intensity, the Magic should be able to prevent the numerous face cuts, backdoors, and late help that left them staring at each other and pointing after Boston scored in Game 2. Communication was poor, which meant reactions were slow. This was evident time and time again as Magic defenders got to Ray Allen, Eddie House and Brian Scalabrine late on the perimeter, and their help on the screen-and-roll in the lane was almost nonexistent.

The Magic will see in their film study how they just let Boston pass the ball around the perimeter at will -- with no denials of reversal, on the wing, or into the post. They made Boston work for nothing on offense, and their focus in Game 3 will be increased ball denial on every pass.

• As we anticipated in our Game 2 report, the Celtics used Perkins as a ball screener, forcing Howard out to help on the screen. Orlando wasn't hurt by the ball handler, but Perkins and Davis rolled to the basket for the return pass and scored repeatedly as Magic defenders were stuck to the shooters on the weak side. In Game 3, expect the Magic to go under the screen if Rondo is the driver, which will allow Howard to move back to Perkins. Also look for Orlando to sprint to the middle of the lane to deflect or discourage that pass back to Perkins. They must then close in a sprint if the ball gets swung to the shooters.

• With the expected suspension of Alston, the Magic must find a defender for Rondo in Game 3. Courtney Lee may be ready for some spot duty, but Stan Van Gundy must decide whether to play Anthony Johnson and take his chances, or play Turkoglu at the point on offense and possibly start Mickael Pietrus on Rondo. The Magic coaching staff will look for all possibilities and probably change things early and often until they find the right combination of players.

• Offensively, the Magic actually got good looks early in the game. They went inside-out and got good percentage shots -- they just missed them. When they attacked the basket, they couldn't finish drives, often missing an off-balance runner or stretching for a layup. In Game 3, Lewis and Turkoglu must finish these plays in the paint. They should stay away from the acrobatics and use a freeze fake in the lane, which will allow them to gather and shoot a short jumper over smaller defenders.

Orlando continued in Game 2 to miss Howard inside in their early offense. Howard runs the floor hard, puts his hands up, and gets looked off by Alston and Turkoglu time after time. By hitting him quickly below the foul line, he can use his quickness to attack the slower Perkins. He can't use his athletic advantage if he is being ignored. He must get the ball at least once a quarter in these situations in Game 3.

When Howard does catch the ball inside, he must attack the middle as he did in the first two games. However, Perkins is digging in and fighting him to the middle. In Game 3, Howard must force that same commitment, then spin to the baseline and seal Perkins on his back. This allows Howard to finish at the basket with Perkins on his shoulder, not directly in front of him. Howard must go to this counter early in Game 3, then he can use his quickness to beat Perkins to the middle and mix in the counter fake. Howard can't just continue to sumo wrestle with Perkins in the middle.

The Magic did attempt to run some sets for Howard to screen him into the post area. But Orlando showed no patience, with Pietrus driving from the wing directly into the spot Howard was cutting toward and having his shot blocked. Orlando must show more patience, wait for Howard to settle and call for the ball, then get him the ball and give him room to work.

Orlando's lack of recognition of matchups is also a continued source of frustration for its coaching staff, as Alston isn't allowing plays to develop and the Magic perimeter players are rushing the action. When they recognize a switch in Game 3, they must pull the ball out, space the floor and attack the mismatched defender. In Game 2, Alston rushed, pulled up to shoot quickly and threw a pass out of bounds when Lewis had Rondo isolated inside. The isolations are there if the Magic ball handlers will recognize and read the switch situations.


X factors

Boston
• The Celtics win when House has good games. They feed off of his scoring and emotion, and usually his first few shots in the first half will tell the story.

Orlando
• With Alston's suspension, Lee's availability and effectiveness in Game 3 will be a key. He is the Magic's most athletic on-ball defender, but may not be ready to mask up and do battle. For Alston to put his team in this position with such a silly show of immaturity and emotion is inexcusable for a veteran guard on a 59-win team.


Prediction

Boston found their series legs in Game 2, and they are back to following Rondo's lead. They will need more from Pierce, and a continued contribution from their bench. Alston's absence certainly makes things more difficult for the Magic, but they may be better off without the scattershot ballhandling and shooting he has displayed in the first two games. Orlando is right where they want to be with a 1-1 split. Expect Howard to have much more of an offensive impact, and the home crowd to fuel a better 3-point shooting night for the Magic in the first close game of the series.

Prediction: Magic win Game 3

Mike Moreau is the director of basketball for the Pro Training Center and The Basketball Academy at the IMG Academies in Bradenton, Fla. He also serves as an NBA analyst for Hoopsworld.

Synergy Sports Technology systems were used in the preparation of this report.