Scouting Update: Mavs-Spurs, Game 3
• Mavs-Spurs series scouting report | Series page
Tony Parker went over, under, around and through the Mavericks in Game 2, and the Spurs dominated both ends of the floor and evened the series at 1-1. San Antonio controlled the boards and tempo and led from start to finish, while keeping Dirk Nowitzki and the entire Mavs offense in check.
Adjustments
Dallas
• The Mavericks should start Game 3 by taking an intentional defensive three-second call, just to prove they can get their help defenders into the lane. The Dallas help defenders were virtually nonexistent at times, as they shaded toward the 3-point shooters or just made token waves at Parker as he blew by to the basket, carving up the Mavs' defense from every angle. The Mavericks cannot get out and run if they are taking the ball out of the basket to start every possession.
Dallas defenders seemed much too intent on tagging the shooter, which was an effective strategy in Game 1, when they were able to keep Parker out of the lane in the second half. But he ran wild in Game 2, and the Mavs' effort to contain him was inconsistent, bordering on lackluster at times. Even when they did get back, Parker was able to split or drive through two and three defenders.
There should have been some ears burning in the Dallas film session, as every player on the court was responsible for their poor defensive showing. This wasn't so much a technical breakdown as it was an overall lack of intensity and effort, highlighted by various Mavericks colliding as Parker sped by.
Game 3 will hinge on the Mavericks' ability to contain Parker's penetration. Look for Dallas to double sooner, help with more aggression and live with some made 3-pointers. They absolutely cannot let Parker get to the rim. And if it takes hard fouls to send that message, it could very well lead to an ejection early because of its premeditated nature, as announced to the world by Erick Dampier. Those plays should happen in Game 1 of a series, and should be unannounced.
• The Mavericks had no running game in Game 2, as they could not get consecutive stops or force enough turnovers to increase the pace. With half-court execution being at a premium with the slower pace, Dallas had to play 5-on-5 inside the arc, which led to a 12-for-37 performance from Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry combined, and a pathetic five offensive rebounds.
In Game 3, the Mavericks must run, even after made baskets, to free up driving lanes, create space for Nowitzki and provide offensive rebound opportunities. Only four fast-break points won't lead to a win Thursday night.
• Nowitzki cannot hold the ball and allow the Spurs to crowd him and bring the double-team, as they have in every game they have played this season. In Game 3, Nowitzki must attack quickly on the catch, not allowing the defender, usually Matt Bonner, to get up in his chest and stand him up. Nowitzki must catch, rip and attack immediately on the catch.
Look for more action for Nowitzki at the top of the floor, which makes a double-team more difficult and does not allow San Antonio's defense to overload one side. Also expect more flex and backscreen action with Nowitzki as the screener. In previous games with the Spurs this season, this screening action has provided him with open looks and chances for quick flashes to the ball. But he cannot settle for jump shots and especially cannot continue to fade away from non-shot-blocking defenders. Dirk has to go like a freight train to the basket in Game 3.
• The Mavericks must also create more dribble penetration in Game 3, with either a faster pace or more assertiveness from Jose Juan Barea, Terry and Howard. It's that penetration that creates the easier baskets, which they got in Game 1 but were nonexistent in Game 2.
San Antonio
• The Spurs' offensive game plan could not have been executed more to perfection, with Parker doing his damage off the dribble, shooters spotting up and Tim Duncan providing more ball-screen action, rather than his typical post-up game. With Dallas counting on the size and strength of Dampier to wear Duncan down, the Spurs forced Dampier to be more mobile, nullifying his ability to bang on Duncan in the post.
Expect more of the same in Game 3, as the Mavericks' rotations to the roll man and to the shooters will be continually tested. The Spurs will be content to let Parker play off Duncan's screen until the Mavericks prove they can defend it. They will space and spot up their shooters around Parker's action. Their plan is pretty simple.
• A huge bright spot for the Spurs was getting Bonner back into the offensive mix, making three 3-pointers. Bonner can hit the 3 in the corners or off the pick-and-pop, which keeps the Dallas 4-man occupied on the perimeter. This provides Parker with more room to drive and Duncan with more room in the post.
• If the Mavericks go full force to focus on stopping Parker's drives, look for quick ball reversal and the extra pass for the spot-up 3, as Dallas is extremely poor in the second and third rotations after it helps.
• Defensively, the Spurs will continue their formula of crowding Nowitzki and bringing the double-team as he starts his move. Their attack is all about frustrating Dirk and enticing him into jumpers and fadeaways. With no dribble penetration from the Dallas guards, the Spurs can stay in position to trap Nowitzki and surround the defensive boards.
X factors
Dallas
• How hard and how often the Mavericks hit Parker at the rim could be the story of Game 3 from the very first possession.
• Dallas' big three of Nowitzki, Howard and Terry combined for 56 points in Game 1 and only 37 in Game 2. They need 55-60 points in Game 3.
San Antonio
• The Spurs have made 18 of 32 3-point shots in the first two games. If Parker's drives are limited, can their 3-point shooters heat up on the road?
• Bruce Bowen hasn't missed a shot in the series, going 3-for-3 from the floor (2-for-2 from 3) and 2-for-2 from the line, while continuing to be a defensive thorn in the side of the Mavericks.
Prediction
This is now a five-game series, with the Mavericks having three of the next four games at home. It is critical for the fragile psyche of this team for them to get the lead early and get the crowd rocking. The Spurs can expect a hostile environment, a faster pace and plenty of attention paid to Tony Parker, while they try to keep it a 5-on-5 half-court game.
Prediction: Mavericks win Game 3
Mike Moreau is the director of basketball for the Pro Training Center and The Basketball Academy at the IMG Academies in Bradenton, Fla. He also serves as an NBA analyst for Hoopsworld.
Synergy Sports Technology systems were used in the preparation of this report.




