Commentary

Jemele Hill's 2009-10 Predictions

Our ESPN Page 2 columnist forecasts the regular-season outcome for the East

Originally Published: October 20, 2009
By Jemele Hill | ESPN.com

Adande | Barry | Broussard | Ford | Hill | Hollinger | Rose | Sheridan | Stein | Thorpe

Predicted Finish for Western Conference: 2009-10

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Los Angeles Lakers

 L.A. checkmated everyone by adding Ron Artest and Khloe Kardashian in the same offseason. Artest's presence guarantees Kobe will be fresh for the repeat run. L.A.'s weak link Fish, who was the man in the playoffs, returns a year older and likely a step slower.

2

San Antonio Spurs

 They get written off and then come back better than ever -- the unofficial Spurs mantra. But unlike past offseasons, the Spurs reloaded with impressive youth, adding RJ and stealing DeJuan Blair in the draft. And just for good measure, they brought in the steady Dyess. Forget the big three, it might be the big six or seven.

3

Denver Nuggets

 We saw how much Carmelo Anthony blossomed with Chauncey Billups last season, so a full season together means Melo will produce the most serious MVP campaign of his career. If J.R. Smith can stop being a knucklehead, this team can return to the conference finals or possibly go beyond.

4

Por. Trail Blazers

 If Nate McMillan starts Steve Blake over Andre Miller, he's not the coach I thought he was. That's no disrespect to Blake, but Miller could have a Billups-like effect if given the reins. Either way, the Blazers are out of excuses. Time for them to graduate from being known as that rising young team in the West.

5

Dallas Mavericks

 It's another now-or-never season for the Mavs, but they're in better shape to push for "now" with the additions of Marion and Gooden. Biggest X factor is Josh Howard, who is coming off a troublesome ankle injury and is in a contract year. Solid pieces here, but can you see the Mavs beating the Lakers, Spurs or Nuggets in the playoffs?

6

Utah Jazz

 The Boozer offseason drama aside, I suspect this will be another season when we'll wonder why the Jazz didn't go any further. Health was a big issue last season, but it still seems as if Sloan has more heart and intensity than many of his players. Millsap's pushing Boozer could be a good thing ... or it could be disastrous.

7

N.O. Hornets

 This team is poised to go backward, even though Emeka Okafor was a brilliant offseason pickup. CP3 still doesn't have a reliable backup, and without consistent scoring from the wing, the Hornets become woefully predictable.

8

Houston Rockets

 No Artest. No Yao. And no McGrady early on. As good as Ariza was in the playoffs, we'll see him return to Earth when he doesn't get all those wide-open looks that Kobe and Pau created. As much as I love Brooks, Scola and Battier, the Rockets have lost too much to compete with the superpowers.

9

Phoenix Suns

 Nash isn't getting any younger, and unfortunately for him, Steve Kerr isn't getting any wiser. The Suns are back to being the Fun 'n' Gun offense, but the results are markedly different from what they once were.

10

G.S. Warriors

 The Warriors' two best players, Jackson and Ellis, have figured out Don Nelson's approach isn't conducive to long-term success, and the organization is content to be a show pony instead of a real winner.

11

OKC Thunder

 The Thunder could be the new Trail Blazers, but not just yet. The Durant-Green-Westbrook triumvirate clearly is this team's future, but the Thunder will gain respectability only with better defense and a supporting cast.

12

L.A. Clippers

 On paper, the Clippers look as if they could do something. Griffin's hustle and work ethic should have a rub-off effect, and Camby will be even more motivated because he's in a contract year. Problem is, it's the Clips, and you can think only worst-case scenario. How long before Davis is playing like he doesn't care?

13

Memphis Grizzlies

 A.I. has a chip on his shoulder, but it would be better if he had the same explosion in his game. Not sure if it's a good idea to expose young, emerging players like Conley, Thabeet and Mayo to Randolph and A.I., who might not be a happy camper if Conley starts ahead of him.

14

Minn. Timberwolves

 It'll take a lot more than Jefferson's losing 30 pounds on the Jared Subway diet to make this team relevant. The Wolves are still under major construction with a rookie coach and a lot of new faces. Let's see how well the vaunted triangle works with Ryan Hollins and Sasha Pavlovic.

15

Sacramento Kings

 A retread coach and a bunch of young players is a bad recipe. The Kings finished near the bottom in every important NBA category last season, and it doesn't seem that will change, even if Tyreke Evans is this season's Derrick Rose.

Predicted Finish for Eastern Conference: 2009-10

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Boston Celtics

 Perfectly appropriate the Celtics and the Incredible Hulk share the color green because the East isn't going to like the Celtics now that they're angry. Age and health are concerns, but Sheed will turn back KG's odometer and Daniels was a real steal. There is nothing this team doesn't have.

2

Cleveland Cavaliers

 LeBron will add another MVP, but the Cavs won't have the best record. Shaq's arrival drew the headlines, but Moon and Parker were fantastic additions. The Cavs now have size on the wing, which will help if they face the Magic again. The question: Is the sandbox big enough for LeBron and Shaq?

3

Orlando Magic

 Howard will add years to Carter's NBA career, and Barnes and Bass give this team more toughness. The key to Orlando's season is Howard's individual improvement. With a healthy KG and Shaq standing in Howard's way, he better have something other than a putback dunk.

4

Atlanta Hawks

 The Hawks seem content to be just a flash in the pan, failing to capitalize on the momentum they created when they took Boston to seven games in 2008. Crawford gives them another weapon, but this team won't be a serious contender until Smith and Johnson can behave like superstars on a consistent basis.

5

Toronto Raptors

 Bosh, Bargnani and now Turkoglu give the Raptors troublesome size. But can Turk be what he was in Orlando without a powerful center like Dwight Howard and a bevy of 3-point shooters? Bosh's future in Toronto depends on it.

6

Wash. Wizards

 Agent Zero has promised to be less mouthy, but this still strikes me as a team that would rather talk a big game than win one. As long as Arenas' knees hold up, the Wizards are assured to double last season's win total. Going further depends on their moody superstar.

7

Chicago Bulls

 I have my doubts as to whether the Bulls are ready to stop teasing us and play up to their potential. While Deng's return is a huge plus, not having Gordon as the consummate dagger-maker will cause a significant ripple effect. Rose is good enough to replace Gordon's late-game heroics.

8

Detroit Pistons

 The Pistons got better by adding a go-to scorer in Gordon and an athletic big man in Villanueva. But that won't translate to a better postseason because the top teams improved at a more rapid rate and the jury is still out on whether Rodney Stuckey can be the point guard of the future.

9

Miami Heat

 Miami makes the playoffs only if D-Wade puts up another MVP-like season. That's entirely possible given how spectacular he was last season, but the man isn't superhuman. O'Neal is past his prime and Beasley's tumultuous offseason could be a factor. A bad season and D-Wade is house hunting in Chicago.

10

Philadelphia 76ers

 The Sixers will take a step back without Andre Miller's calm and steady influence. Not convinced Lou Williams is ready to be a pure point guard, or that Iguodala can flourish as a 2. And given Brand's track record, you can't count on him to be healthy an entire season.

11

Indiana Pacers

 Granger's a star, but the Pacers won't sniff the playoffs unless they shore up last season's gaping defensive holes. They took a step in the right direction by adding bulldog Dahntay Jones and drafting Tyler Hansbrough.

12

Charlotte Bobcats

 Just call Chandler Mr. Glass. Under normal circumstances Chandler would be an impressive addition, but he hasn't played a full season since 2007-08. Felton has flourished under Brown's direction, but the Bobcats just don't have the horses to improve on last year's surprising season.

13

Milwaukee Bucks

 The Bucks seem like they're treading water. They lost Villanueva, Ramon Sessions and Richard Jefferson, and unless young guys like Brandon Jennings and Joe Alexander do something dramatic, why should anyone believe the Bucks are more than just a basement team in the Central?

14

New York Knicks

 Can we just fast-forward to the summer of 2010, when the Knicks' real season begins? With six players in the last year of their contract, a ninth consecutive losing season is a foregone conclusion. The Knicks need to get something out of Gallinari and Eddy Curry, which lets you know how ugly things could get.

15

New Jersey Nets

 The biggest story regarding the Nets has nothing to do with the product on the floor. The Nets have a nice collection of young players, including newcomer Courtney Lee, but with the move to Brooklyn iffy at best, you wonder how much the uncertainty will impact the current players.

Click the mugs below to see our writers' predictions

J.A. Adande Jon Barry Chris Broussard Chad Ford Jemele Hill John Hollinger Jalen Rose Chris Sheridan Marc Stein David Thorpe

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Jemele Hill | email

ESPN.com, ESPN The Magazine
  • Columnist for ESPN.com
  • Columnist for Orlando Sentinel (2005-06)
  • Writer for The Detroit Free Press (1999-2005)

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