Commentary

John Hollinger's 2009-10 Predictions

Our ESPN.com NBA analyst writer forecasts the regular-season outcome for the East

Originally Published: October 20, 2009
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com

Adande | Barry | Broussard | Ford | Hill | Hollinger | Rose | Sheridan | Stein | Thorpe

Predicted Finish for Western Conference: 2009-10

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1

Los Angeles Lakers

 Scary thought: L.A.'s two best young players (Andrew Bynum and Jordan Farmar) gave them virtually nothing in title run. Throw in Ron Artest's Rottweiler D and doses of Kobe and Pau, and the only West team that can beat L.A. is L.A.

2

Por. Trail Blazers

 Playoff flop was a bummer, but young Blazers were West's second-best team at end of regular season last year and added Andre Miller and a full offseason for center Greg Oden. If anyone can challenge L.A., it's these guys.

3

San Antonio Spurs

 Decrepit supporting cast got needed upgrade with additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and second-round steal DeJuan Blair. But there's no fifth ring unless Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili regain their former mojo.

4

Denver Nuggets

 Lots of things had to go right for Nuggets' Cinderella run to conference finals, and some of them won't necessarily repeat. But clever additions (Lawson, Afflalo) around superb starting five should keep them in West's upper crust.

5

N.O. Hornets

 Addressed the bench shortcomings of a year ago with pickups of Darren Collison, Ike Diogu and Darius Songaila, and added more scoring pop with Emeka Okafor. CP3 supplies star power, but mediocre wings keep them from true contention.

6

Utah Jazz

 Boozer's future remains uncertain, so let's focus on the certainties: Deron Williams will finally make the All-Star team, the Jazz will kill at home and struggle on the road, and the wings will keep them out of West's top tier.

7

Dallas Mavericks

 As with their Texas rivals, age issues are a huge concern. The Mavs made enough moves to keep things interesting and still have a big weapon in Erick Dampier's expiring deal, but the current cast looks no better than last season's.

8

Phoenix Suns

 Retina injuries are scary business and Amare Stoudemire already had one unscheduled follow-up surgery, so I've tempered my expectations. Be fun to see Suns go back to run-and-gun style, but the talent has withered since the glory days.

9

Houston Rockets

 Rockets still have enviable depth and clever management, but what's missing is anything resembling star quality. Role players can keep them on playoff fringes, but likely need a strong comeback from T-Mac to crack West's top eight.

10

OKC Thunder

 Young Thunder are likely still a year away from breaking into West's top eight, but they're pretty close already after adding yet another strong component (James Harden) to emerging Durant-Green-Westbrook nucleus.

11

G.S. Warriors

 Team Turmoil is at it again, with Cap'n Jack already having been suspended and Monta Ellis not exuding joy either. Sad thing is the Warriors have lots of talent, but management mayhem and inattention to D will prove to be their undoing.

12

L.A. Clippers

 Could improve their standing with another trade or two, as the Clips have the deepest frontcourt in basketball but iffy depth in the backcourt. Current alignment bets on health from Baron Davis, and that's normally not a winning hand.

13

Minn. Timberwolves

 Closest I can come to a true sleeper pick is picking Wolves to win low-to-mid 30s. Sessions and Flynn offer a huge upgrade at PG and Love was last year's most underrated rookie, so if Al Jefferson comes back strong they'll surprise.

14

Memphis Grizzlies

 With Allen Iverson, Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo fighting one another for shots, this team puts the "Me" in Memphis. Griz won't be a playoff threat, but will threaten the record for fewest assists by a team in an NBA season.

15

Sacramento Kings

 Kings won't be as awful as they were a year ago, especially if Kevin Martin stays upright all year. Alas, empty seats and lack of new arena deal means most of this year's Kings news will involve words like "San Jose" and "Kansas City."

Predicted Finish for Eastern Conference: 2009-10

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Cleveland Cavaliers

 Additions of Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon addressed the matchup problems they had last year against the size of the Magic and Lakers. If they can sidestep drama surrounding the most coveted free agent, they'll win the East.

2

Orlando Magic

 With additions of Vince Carter, Brandon Bass and three other rotation players, plus the return of Jameer Nelson, the Magic are positively stacked -- four All-Stars start and they're 11 deep. Alas, matchup edge versus Cavs is likely gone.

3

Boston Celtics

 The big, obvious question is KG's knee, but it's not the only one. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce aren't kids either and Rajon Rondo's extension talks could get touchy. C's will win division regardless, but can't see them surpassing Cavs and Magic.

4

Atlanta Hawks

 Hawks filled out roster after only going eight deep a year ago, but that's really all that changed and they're no longer young enough to bank on internal improvement. Looks like another year atop East's pretender heap.

5

Philadelphia 76ers

 Don't look at who left, but rather at who's left. Andre Miller may be gone, but Elton Brand returns to join several young studs -- Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams, Marreese Speights -- on the East's most underrated squad.

6

Wash. Wizards

 I'm a big Flip Saunders believer, but I also believe Wizards have consistently overrated their talent -- who else goes all-in after wining 19 games? Look for yet another .500-type campaign from Arenas-Butler-Jamison nucleus.

7

Miami Heat

 Dwyane Wade is a monster, but an already awful supporting cast arguably got worse over summer as Heat save for 2010 free-agent splurge. Michael Beasley could break out if his head's on straight, but otherwise it's the same one-man show.

8

Detroit Pistons

 Allen Iverson wasn't the answer because "What can we get for Chauncey Billups?" was the wrong question. Pistons now left trying to split minutes among four scorers in the backcourt while patching together a quilt of mediocrity up front.

9

Chicago Bulls

 Hot bandwagon team after taking Celtics to seven a year ago, but let's chill for a year. Loss of Ben Gordon leaves a hole, Thomas-Noah frontcourt remains mismatched, and depth will be a problem if the two rooks don't deliver right away.

10

Toronto Raptors

 Colangelo's crazy hodgepodge of non-defending shooters may just work, especially if Jose Calderon's hammy holds up. But too many questions linger about defense, rebounding and bench to confidently predict such an outcome.

11

Indiana Pacers

 If this was football they'd be awesome -- Pacers have five guys who can score and five who can defend. They just aren't the same five. Weird offseason didn't help -- Dahntay Jones' four-year, $11 million deal was summer's worst.

12

Charlotte Bobcats

 Okafor-Chandler trade is a killer because Bobcats were already clawless on offense. They'll defend and Larry Brown will get them playing smart and together, but if they're in the bottom three in scoring it won't matter.

13

New York Knicks

 Good news: Knicks have gobs of cap room in 2010. Bad news: It's still 2009. Added size in Darko Milicic and Jordan Hill should help the D, but paucity of decent wings makes it tough to play Mike D'Antoni's preferred style successfully.

14

Milwaukee Bucks

 Combine bad finances with a few self-inflicted wounds and you get a pretty depressing outlook. Bogut and Redd are healthy and Skiles will get others to overachieve, but Bucks lost three productive starters and got nothing for them.

15

New Jersey Nets

 Fortunately the Nets' prospective owner is used to long, depressing winters. While the Mikhail Prokhorov purchase could revitalize the franchise, it does little for the immediate future. With VC exiled and nary a free-agent addition, the Nets are badly undermanned.

Click the mugs below to see our writers' predictions

J.A. Adande Jon Barry Chris Broussard Chad Ford Jemele Hill John Hollinger Jalen Rose Chris Sheridan Marc Stein David Thorpe


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