Commentary

David Thorpe's 2009-10 Predictions

Our ESPN.com NBA analyst forecasts the regular-season outcome for the East

Originally Published: October 20, 2009
By David Thorpe | ESPN.com

Adande | Barry | Broussard | Ford | Hill | Hollinger | Rose | Sheridan | Stein | Thorpe

Predicted Finish for Western Conference: 2009-10

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Los Angeles Lakers

 They are the easy pick, but I have some concerns about Artest. Will he be consumed by the media circus surrounding the team? Will he accept a well-defined role by season's end? They'll win a ton regardless, but may not be there at the end.

2

San Antonio Spurs

 Managing the health of this team is priority one, from the big three to rookie DeJuan Blair and his ACL-less knees. But this team is built for a long postseason run. It has needed some athletic energy off the bench for years, and George Hill will be a big factor here.

3

Por. Trail Blazers

 No team has a better starter/backup tandem at the point guard and center spots. Now, can Miller and Blake, and the coach, get along? Oden looks ready to be a beast. Last season's playoff loss to Houston should provide plenty of reference points for this season.

4

Denver Nuggets

 Billups arrived last year and helped the Nuggets grow up, practice and compete like pros. If his message does not wear thin, this team can be extremely dangerous in the spring. I would not be surprised to see them explode out of the blocks. Can they keep it up?

5

Dallas Mavericks

 This is a team that believes it can be great. They are loaded with veterans, and rookie Rodrigue Beaubois is an exciting blur of a guard. I also think Nowitzki is ready to enjoy life again after a tough spring.

6

N.O. Hornets

 In today's pick-and-roll world, with defenses mostly handcuffed, a point guard such as Paul can mean so much. Adding Okafor will help the front line, and I'm a fan of rooks Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. If the Hornets had a topflight 2-guard, they'd be a Finals contender.

7

Phoenix Suns

 Watching Nash run this offense is one of the best things about the NBA. Thank goodness he'll be allowed to do so. Also, I see a different Amare, perhaps both humbled and re-energized after dealing with such a grueling recovery. Those two guys alone give this team a playoff shot.

8

Utah Jazz

 Williams and his post players provide difficult matchups for any team, but the uncertainty with Boozer will play a part in many of their games. A team is either committed or not, and everything in between is pain.

9

L.A. Clippers

 Griffin will affect the entire culture on the Clippers. He "beasts it" every second he plays. Combined with Camby and Kaman, the Clippers will be tough in the paint. If B-Davis locks in, and Gordon keeps improving, this team has a real heartbeat.

10

Houston Rockets

 It brings me joy watching the Rockets on defense. Their toughness inside is tops in the league. But replacing Yao, who anchored every good rotation Houston played, is just too much. However, I see this team as a sleeper after the break, especially if T-Mac has his hops.

11

OKC Thunder

 It's easy to drool over the expected growth of Durant. But I'm also excited about Westbrook. We saw what Rondo's freakish athleticism did in Year 2, so expecting something amazing from Westbrook is fair. Management and coaching are stressing defense -- will we see it?

12

Minn. Timberwolves

 If Love was healthy, this ranking would be higher. Sessions is going to be very good for them, Jefferson will be an All-Star, Brewer looks like he found his sea legs, and Love sets the tone with his board work. Until he returns, they will be a man short, but will still be tough to beat.

13

Memphis Grizzlies

 You tell me, how's a team that finished dead last in assist rate one year going to do the next season after adding A.I. and Randolph? They will help the Griz score, but the team culture will probably remain on the lower side of the dial.

14

Sacramento Kings

 All eyes should be on how the frontcourt of Jason Thompson-Spencer Hawes fares. The lottery picks have to start measuring up for this team to have any chance of competing. Paul Westphal is a positive guy with tons of bench experience, which will be a welcome change.

15

G.S. Warriors

 This is a solid team at many spots, capable of being a playoff contender. But the drama is a difficult force to reckon with, especially when it's created by the team's best players. And it could get uglier. Young guys like Randolph and Curry need more stability to shine and develop.

Predicted Finish for Eastern Conference: 2009-10

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Boston Celtics

 Thanks to KG's injury, this team never got a fair chance to defend their crown. They were a great champion, and have some new weapons to bolster their terrific core. Most importantly, they will still defend at an elite level, which translates to a ton of wins. Wallace must be a good follower.

2

Orlando Magic

 It's possible that the additions made this offseason will push Orlando up a notch. But anyone who saw this team last year knows that the Magic were built around staunch defense first. Can they commit to defending as a group again? If so, they're good enough to win it all.

3

Cleveland Cavaliers

 I think the Parker addition was their best summer move. Even though he and Shaq have been added to an excellent team, the issues with West, plus the time it might take to digest all that "The Daddy's" world entails, could lead to enough losses to cost them one of the top two spots.

4

Atlanta Hawks

 I often wonder why no one thinks a blue-chip FA in 2010 could end up here. This athletic and dynamic team would explode with one guy to make everyone better. As it stands, they can defend and score well enough to be a solid playoff team. I'd still like to see more offensive opportunities for Horford.

5

Miami Heat

 Wade did so much to carry the Heat to the playoffs last year, and now they can look to Beasley to help with that load. Don't forget what a marvelous talent he is, and the team has a few savvy and tough veterans to help provide some glue. If O'Neal stays healthy, this should be an excellent defensive team.

6

Chicago Bulls

 No team benefited from an early playoff loss more than this one. It should help to unify what has been a somewhat disjointed collection of talent. Miller and Noah are the best combo of passing centers in the game, and one that helps makes up for their lack of paint scoring and the loss of Gordon.

7

Philadelphia 76ers

 If Miller was still their point guard, this team could play for a top-three seed. But he's not, so the lack of a veteran and capable point guard will cost the 76ers wins until Williams figures it out. Their athleticism and paint scoring will be enough to get them into the playoffs.

8

Toronto Raptors

 The Raptors know the formula for their success, thanks to Orlando's run last year. Now, they have to execute it. They also will show signs of past Suns' teams, where offense carried the defense. This is the year Bosh breaks into the MVP hunt.

9

Washington Wizards

 If there's a dark horse team, it's this one. New coaching will help on both sides of the ball and Arenas makes a difference. But if Foye and Blatche, two guys with talent and something to prove, can step forward, then all of a sudden they'll go from obscurity to the playoff hunt.

10

Detroit Pistons

 If Stuckey takes a big step forward, as so many expect, then combined with an up-tempo flavor, the Pistons should have a backcourt that can score in bunches. I'm not convinced he's ready for that, and I also worry about the spirit of their veterans, who must have trouble seeing a great near-future.

11

New Jersey Nets

 I love some of the young talent on this squad -- Yi, Lee, Roberts, Lopez, Williams. But they are scary to bank on, as of now. They could be a scary team after the break. Yi is the key: If he can outplay other 4s, it sets up everyone else.

12

Indiana Pacers

 When a driven coach is dealing with an inferior roster, he might be able to get them to catch fire and believe they can work miracles. But more likely, he'll get frustrated that the lack of talent can not prosper in his system. Such is the case here, with some quality scorers but not much else.

13

New York Knicks

 This is "wait until next year" for the Knicks, but some of their pieces have a lot to prove if they hope to stick around. And D'Antoni's style is even more fun to play when constantly an underdog with something to prove. Gallinari might shock the league a bit this season.

14

Charlotte Bobcats

 The game has opened up around the league, but not here. Losing Okafor is a killer, and they will have to execute well almost every possession to score. That's not easy when you also have to really grind things out defensively as well to stay competitive. Developing their future (Augustine, Henderson) may take precedence quickly.

15

Milwaukee Bucks

 I was very skeptical of Brandon Jennings before I saw him in Vegas. He converted me with his interest in passing the ball to anyone open. But playing the point, for this coach, as a young rookie, will be a very tough thing for him to do. Yet, he must play to become the star they need.

Click the mugs below to see our writers' predictions

J.A. Adande Jon Barry Chris Broussard Chad Ford Jemele Hill John Hollinger Jalen Rose Chris Sheridan Marc Stein David Thorpe


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David Thorpe

NBA
  • NBA Analyst for ESPN.com
  • Executive director of Pro Training Center
  • Started coaching career in 1987

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