Commentary

John Hollinger's 2010-11 Predictions

Originally Published: October 22, 2010
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com

Predicted Finish for Western Conference: 2010-11

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Los Angeles Lakers

 The Lakers overcame knee injuries to Kobe and Bynum and some shaky point guard play to win it all. Those issues remain, but Miami's epic haul is the biggest obstacle to a three-peat. L.A. should win the West regardless, but one wonders if it will be as the No. 1 seed.

2

Por. Trail Blazers

 Given the offseason tumult, the masses seem to have forgotten that the Blazers are absolutely loaded. That's true even if Greg Oden is only an occasional participant. The talent isn't as cohesive as L.A.'s, nor as top-heavy, but a trade may yet change that.

3

San Antonio Spurs

 Yes, the window is still open. Point differential says they were better than their record a year ago, and the addition of Tiago Splitter and presumed return to health of Tony Parker mean the Spurs should move back to their familiar perch in the West's top 3.

4

OKC Thunder

 A popular pick for No. 2, it says here the Thunder will have to endure growing pains first. The league's healthiest team in 2009-10 will inevitably face more adversity on that front, and while they have the assets for a home run trade they may sit tight for another year.

5

Dallas Mavericks

 The Mavs' advanced age makes it possible they'll crash and burn, but a far more likely outcome has them going gently into the night as a midlevel playoff seed that wins a round at most. Mark Cuban keeps looking for blockbusters, but other clubs have better cards.

6

Utah Jazz

 As long as they don't trade Andrei Kirilenko for Boris Diaw, which my analysis says would cost them several games, the Jazz should be fine. The free-agency-battered roster isn't as deep or potent as last season's, but nabbing Al Jefferson should keep Utah in the top 8.

7

Houston Rockets

 They won 42 without Yao a year ago, so we know what the floor is. He'll play only 24 minutes a game, but the Rockets are deep, they defend and they'll have a full year of Kevin Martin. Better yet, thanks to the Knicks, they're positioned for further upgrades.

8

Denver Nuggets

 This prediction assumes Carmelo Anthony will stick around; if not, the Nugs will land several notches south of here. Even with Melo, Denver has issues, with frontcourt injuries exposing an already shaky bench, but George Karl's return should be a big boost.

9

N.O. Hornets

 Since he was rarely healthy last season, it's easy to forget how dominant Chris Paul can be at full strength. His star-studded play should keep the Hornets above .500 and in the playoff chase despite a paper-thin frontcourt and the usual miserable cap management.

10

Phoenix Suns

 Suns fans will note they usually do their best when we expect the least, including the last time they lost Amare Stoudemire. Not this time. In 2005-06 they only won eight games fewer sans Amare; that total will double for Small Forwards Anonymous in 2010-11.

11

Memphis Grizzlies

 If the Grizzlies can get close to 400 games from their solid starting five, and owner and de facto GM Michael Heisley avoids doing anything horrifically stupid, they could squeak into the playoffs. Unfortunately, neither scenario appears likely.

12

G.S. Warriors

 The Warriors have a novel, new tactic -- they will use actual big men and occasionally pursue rebounds -- but otherwise they'll likely remain dreadful on D. The new pick-and-roll combo of Steph Curry and David Lee should be devastating; the bench, not so much.

13

Sacramento Kings

 I worry I've undersold the Kings, because the Tyreke Evans-DeMarcus Cousins combo is potentially devastating. However, whether that potential is realized this year -- or ever -- remains an open question, while the help both on the floor and upstairs appears wanting.

14

L.A. Clippers

 I'm aboard the Blake Griffin bandwagon, but nobody seems to realize the rest of this team is terrible, with a couple second-tier stars, no depth and a retread coach. And Angelenos, help me out -- is that Baron Davis playing point guard or LenDale White?

15

Minn. Timberwolves

 The good news: Kevin Love is a stud, the Wolves have apparently ditched the triangle offense silliness, and the squad put together a very strong preseason. The bad news: GM David Kahn's head-scratching moves have left Wolves fans nostalgic for Kevin McHale.

Predicted Finish for Eastern Conference: 2010-11

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Miami Heat

 Yes, the Heat still have to prove it on the court. On paper, however, this appears to be one of the best teams ever assembled. If the Big Three of James, Wade and Bosh stay healthy, the only team that can beat them is the one in the mirror.

2

Orlando Magic

 The Magic are the East's wild card because of Dwight Howard, the only player for whom the Heat have no answer. Unfortunately, the Magic still have no answer for opponents that single-cover Howard successfully, an Achilles heel that's keeping them from a title.

3

Boston Celtics

 Boston to win the Atlantic seems the safest pick on the board. A better question is whether their record will be any better than a year ago given their strong 2010 playoffs. Many look at that run and say yes; the history of previous such squads says probably not.

4

Milwaukee Bucks

 Fear the Dear? Yes. The Bucks will eliminate last season's massive free throw disparity with human foul magnet Corey Maggette, and they'll have John Salmons for 82 games instead of 30. Andrew Bogut's elbow is a legit worry, but the good news far outweighs the bad.

5

Chicago Bulls

 Derrick Rose is a rising star, Carlos Boozer adds a serious frontcourt weapon, and they'll almost certainly be better coached. But let's all calm down a bit: They'll be in the bottom five in 3s, they have a shallow bench and Booz is already hurt. They're good, but flawed.

6

Atlanta Hawks

 The Hawks basically had everything go right last season and won 53; that's the ceiling. With virtually the same team we can't expect a collapse, but between a bit more adversity and likely declines from the three main backcourt players, they'll land in the mid-40s.

7

Philadelphia 76ers

 Even if Evan Turner bombs, the 76ers will surprise. Sure, Doug Collins will nit-pick them to death, but in the short term he'll improve them substantially. He lacks an A-list star but has serious young talent with Iguodala, Speights, Williams, Young and Holiday.

8

New York Knicks

 After two years of waiting for 2010 ... it's 2010! Party on Knicks fans, your team actually has a chance this season. The folks in MSG will be elated enough to forget that James Dolan a) still owns the team and b) tried to re-hire Isiah Thomas this summer.

9

Indiana Pacers

 Indy's stuck -- they were 9th, 9th and 10th the past three years and remain just good enough to miss the playoffs. The big Murphy-for-Collison trade opened one weakness to fill another: They finally have a point guard but will likely finish last in Rebound Rate.

10

Detroit Pistons

 While they'll remain unwatchable, the Pistons may be half-decent. Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and Tayshaun Prince should be healthier and, thus, better than a year ago, and I like rookie Greg Monroe. Unfortunately, they have about 50 perimeter players and two bigs.

11

Wash. Wizards

 The excitement over the dawn of the John Wall era is tempered by the fact that neither the Gilbert Arenas nor Ernie Grunfeld eras have ended. This roster probably has the league's lowest basketball IQ, and, no, acquiring Yi Jianlian and Al Thornton didn't help.

12

Charlotte Bobcats

 They lost Raymond Felton unnecessarily and replaced him with Shaun Livingston. They traded Tyson Chandler in a salary dump that saved no money. They have no draft pick and no cap space. Barring a minor miracle (say, Boris Diaw for Devin Harris), they're hosed.

13

Cleveland Cavaliers

 I feel like I'm pouring salt into an open wound every time I'm asked to assess the 2010-11 Cavs. No, it probably won't be pretty. They'll need everything to go perfectly just to grab an 8-seed. But keep an eye on Ramon Sessions after his liberation from Minnesota.

14

New Jersey Nets

 They'll be miles better than a year ago, and you can move them up a few notches if they score Carmelo Anthony. But Melo or not, they still lack the depth and defensive mettle -- especially in the frontcourt -- to crash the playoffs, even in the dilapidated East.

15

Toronto Raptors

 The Raps were the league's worst defensive team last season and don't have a player who ranked in the top 75 in PER. Optimists note they're deep and have lots of shooters, and the D might improve if they actually try this year. Regardless, they're lottery fodder.

Click the mugs below to see our writers' predictions

J.A. AdandeChris Broussard Chad Ford Zach Harper John Hollinger Tim Legler Chris Sheridan Marc Stein Michael WallaceBrian Windhorst

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