Commentary

Brian Windhorst's 2010-11 Predictions

Originally Published: October 22, 2010
By Brian Windhorst | ESPN.com

Predicted Finish for Western Conference: 2010-11

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Los Angeles Lakers

 Kobe Bryant's knee is far from right, Andrew Bynum's return date keeps getting pushed back and Ron Artest continues to run his mouth. Yet you don't see much concern on Phil Jackson's face, do you? That is because this team is deeper than last season's champs, with plenty of time to get healthy.

2

Dallas Mavericks

 Year after year Mark Cuban keeps importing talent, looking for a balance that will work. Here the Mavs are again with a huge payroll and a roster littered with former All-Stars. Tyson Chandler adds some length alongside Brendan Haywood. They have weapons to pounce if the champs slip.

3

OKC Thunder

 People assume this team will make a major jump this season but don't forget it was pretty good last year, winning 50. In addition to Kevin Durant, a reason to really like this team is team-wide length. They will make everyone they play uncomfortable. But for the first time they must deal with expectations.

4

San Antonio Spurs

 Seems like they've been waiting for big man Tiago Splitter for a decade and he comes at the right time. These dogs can still hunt but they are on the decline and have been searching for an infusion. Manu Ginobili was masterful in a contract year; they need the same magic from Tony Parker to have a chance.

5

Por. Trail Blazers

 They simply haven't had a chance because of their injuries and general bad luck. No matter what, they still have one of the best pick-and-roll combos in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. This promises to be a skin-tight divisional race again and karma says the Blazers are owed some fortune.

6

Utah Jazz

 Losing Carlos Boozer hurt but Al Jefferson is no slouch. This team dominates at home and has a firmly entrenched system. Big X factor is how Mehmet Okur can come back from bad Achilles injury and whether ownership allows for Andrei Kirilenko's contract to be used for an upgrade.

7

Phoenix Suns

 Of the teams deserted by a star in free agency, none were more proactive than the Suns in trying to upgrade. Hedo Turkoglu may have issues fitting in but his skill set should work with Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick. If Steve Nash still has gas in the tank the Suns should be a playoff team.

8

Houston Rockets

 Yao is back but right now he's really just a part-time player. What the Rockets need is Courtney Lee and Kevin Martin to play to their potential. That and maybe Aaron Brooks, upset he's not getting a new contract, will play angry good and they'll be back in the playoffs.

9

Denver Nuggets

 Bad foreshadowing here. This was a team on the cusp two years ago that has been undone with instability and a superstar with wandering eyes. What should be a feel-good story in George Karl's return instead may turn into a death watch for the franchise if/when Carmelo Anthony is dealt.

10

N.O. Hornets

 This is a team at the tipping point, and it could go either way. With Chris Paul and David West and a potential trade chip in Peja Stojakovic, there's hope. But with ownership uncertainty, along with a coach and GM who are both rookies, the danger of Paul re-visiting his demands is quite unsettling.

11

Memphis Grizzlies

 Wow, that was a lot of money to give to Rudy Gay. Now, Zach Randolph has his hand out. Considering he was the key to the team's turnaround last year, will we see the good Zach or the bad Zach this season? Of note, Marc Gasol is developing nicely and Tony Allen was an underrated pickup.

12

L.A. Clippers

 Maybe one of the most intriguing teams in the league. Blake Griffin has looked fantastic in the preseason, Eric Gordon had a strong summer and Chris Kaman looks healthy. Now if it all stays this way they could be fun to watch. But they are the Clippers so it probably won't.

13

Sacramento Kings

 Could be a fascinating season to follow the Kings because of the unknown impact by DeMarcus Cousins. He promises to be a polarizing player who will have plenty of ups and downs. Tyreke Evans is a wonder but he needs to show improvement in his weaknesses for the Kings to stay on track.

14

G.S. Warriors

 This seems to be a franchise at the start of a radical makeover. The good news is it has some quality parts. The bad news is more instability and changes are likely coming. Hopefully the Warriors stay healthy so they don't have to routinely start players on 10-day contracts this season.

15

Minn. Timberwolves

 If you don't follow the league closely and you start a sentence with "I wonder what ever happened to ... " assume that player has been on the Wolves roster over the last two years. If this team has a direction, we can't find it. Another year of massive roster turnover and uncertainty how it all fits.

Predicted Finish for Eastern Conference: 2010-11

RANK TEAM COMMENT

1

Miami Heat

 Their margin of error most nights will be large because they have three stars who can win games by themselves. Growing pains or not, they should pile up a large win total. But the uncertainty at center, plus unfamiliarity with stars' roles does leave them with a weak spot or two, just to make things interesting.

2

Orlando Magic

 This team is so good and so deep, and it has the assets to make an impact trade. When the Magic play their best, they are also one of the best defensive teams. But to win it all they need Dwight Howard to play at an MVP level at both ends. We've not seen him become the player he can be -- yet.

3

Boston Celtics

 Last year during the preseason Kevin Garnett was dragging his leg up the floor, Rasheed Wallace was out of shape and Ray Allen was facing a contract year. And the Celtics still ended up in Game 7. These guys are much more settled this time around. Then again, it could be the end of the road.

4

Chicago Bulls

 This was a Bulls team on the brink even before its free-agent pickups led by Carlos Boozer. Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah were fantastic in the playoffs last season and neither was 100 percent. The Bulls have the ingredients to be a darkhorse contender, led by their sheer size.

5

Milwaukee Bucks

 Despite his ball-hogging reputation, Corey Maggette is one of the NBA's most efficient scorers. He's now joining an excellent perimeter with Brandon Jennings and John Salmons on a sleeper team. Andrew Bogut isn't 100 percent yet, but if he recovers, the Bucks will have a nice season.

6

Atlanta Hawks

 They're talented, they're fairly deep, and they are the exact same team that has been swept out of the second round in the last two years. Can new coach Larry Drew change that cycle? Not unless he's got a trick up his sleeve we haven't seen yet.

7

Wash. Wizards

 Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld did a great job giving this franchise hope with his moves over the last eight months. Yes, No.1 pick John Wall makes them intriguing but the steals of Kirk Hinrich and Yi Jianlian are what return them to respectability. Plus, Gilbert Arenas is still pretty good.

8

New York Knicks

 That Jared Jeffries trade may haunt them all season as Donnie Walsh struggles to turn the Eddy Curry trade chip into something. But at least now they are actually looking at trades to get better. If nothing else, former Suns big man Amare Stoudemire makes them a playoff contender.

9

Charlotte Bobcats

 How did the team respond to finally making the playoffs? By losing ground over the summer. This team still has quality pieces but it simply isn't as good as it was last year while the rest of its division has been in an arms race. How long will Larry Brown stand for it?

10

Detroit Pistons

 From a pure talent standpoint, this team should have enough to contend for the playoffs. But injuries and underachievement questions will continue to dog it until it proves otherwise. Also, what does it get from a potential Tayshaun Prince trade? Lots of mystery here.

11

Cleveland Cavaliers

 Obviously they're still reeling from the loss of LeBron James. Hard to judge them because injuries have made it impossible for Byron Scott to even see what his new team looks like. They could become a fringe playoff team or sink to the very bottom depending on if they use their $14.5 million trade exception to improve.

12

Philadelphia 76ers

 The Sixers better hope Evan Turner is just a slow starter. They cannot afford to have made a mistake with that pick. All those trades/free-agent signings over last three years and roster still doesn't seem to fit all that well together.

13

New Jersey Nets

 They weren't as bad as their record indicated last season. But they were also the big losers of all the cap space flush teams over the summer. Their only impact addition is a raw Derrick Favors. Without a big trade they are not a playoff team.

14

Indiana Pacers

 Unoffically the Pacers are biding their time until they have cap space next year to fully rebuild. Their goal this year is to work on prospects like Darren Collison, Tyler Hansbrough and Paul George. And to trade anyone with a long-term deal. Anyone.

15

Toronto Raptors

 The talent level has decreased. It has not helped the outlook that Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon didn't have good preseasons, either. Leandro Barbosa looks like he's headed for a strong year if he stays healthy, a rare bright spot.

Click the mugs below to see our writers' predictions

J.A. Adande Chris Broussard Chad Ford Zach Harper John Hollinger Tim Legler Chris Sheridan Marc Stein Michael Wallace Brian Windhorst

Brian Windhorst

ESPN.com
  • ESPN.com NBA writer since 2010
  • Covered Cleveland Cavs for seven years
  • Author of two books

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