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Monday, June 17
Updated: Monday, June 17, 7:37 PM ET
Talent steps forward in draft
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
This wasn't planned. There was no conspiracy to hide the true point guards, the shooting guards or the centers. Small and power forwards -- the "3s" and "4s" as they are termed -- are just too plentiful, too good, and simply the most loaded position in the 2002 draft.
How loaded? As many as 10 of the 13 lottery picks are expected to be forwards.
"It might be the best group of power forwards in the last few years,'' said Walt Perin, the Utah Jazz director of player personnel.
|  | | It isn't surprising that the first senior likely drafted will be a forward -- Fresno State's Melvin Ely.
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But, to avoid confusion, it may be better to just call these players forwards. Big or small, the Class of 2002 has blurred the line between the two position.
"It's the year of the 4-man, the 3-4-man,'' said Leo Papile, the Boston Celtics director of player personnel. "In the 60s, 70s and 80s, a lot of these guys would be centers, but we've got a Darwinian theory now that everybody is a hybrid, a 3-4 or a 4-3.
"Anybody who is 6-8 to 6-11 is in that range now. That's the trend -- the versatile player has to play inside and out unless he's a behemoth you can't be a legitimate five. The trend is to move away from the basket."
Outside of the first two picks -- China's 7-foot-5 center Yao Ming and Duke point guard Jay Williams -- the only other non-forwards who could slip into the lottery are Memphis' combo-guard Dajuan Wagner or Stanford 7-foot center Curtis Borchardt. But that is likely it.
Look at the rest of any projected lottery and it's filled with 3s and 4s. Assuming 6-9 Mike Dunleavy stays in the draft, he tops this list of players who can play inside or out, just like he does at Duke. Connecticut's Caron Butler is 6-7 and a true NBA small forward, but he plays like a power forward in his knack for getting the putbacks. Kansas Drew Gooden is 6-10 and looks like a new-age power forward with his slender build. But a closer look reveals that he has the ball skills to face the basket as well as finish on the offensive glass.
Chris Wilcox is a 6-10 power player, but he runs the floor like a small forward and developed more of a face-the-basket game this season at Maryland. Indiana's Jared Jeffries, a 6-10 skilled forward, is considered the ultimate 4-3 -- someone who loves to face the basket, but is developing even more inside skills to match his height.
Sort of sounds like a guy named Dirk Nowitzki, doesn't it.
Well, we haven't even mentioned Nikoloz Tskitishvili, who is billed as a 19-year-old small forward, but stands 7-feet tall. The young Georgian who played limmited minutes for Benetton Treviso (Italy) this past season is a classic European 4-man. He can play around the basket, but has the perimeter skills to step a bit outside of the basket -- like, say the NBA 3-point arc. Tskitishvili's skills add up to a possible top-five pick in the draft.
And what about the 6-8 Qyntel Woods out of Northeast Mississippi CC? He's the perfect small forward in a slender frame and the jump shot to stay on the perimeter. Then there are the monster board men -- 6-11 Maybyner "Nene" Hilario of Brazil and 6-10 Amare Stoudemire of Cypress Creek High (Fla.) -- both who are more 4-5s because of their lack of perimeter skills. But if they ever get consistent shots, teams who pick them June 26 won't hesitate to take them further out of the interior.
And David Stern won't stop announcing the names of forwards when the lottery ends. Just look at 6-10, fifth-year senior Melvin Ely of Fresno State. The senior most likely to be picked first in the draft just happens to be a prototype power forward, a big man with mid-range skills but a knack for staying close to the basket at both ends of the court. And don't be shocked if Tennessee 6-10 power forward Marcus Haislip gets one of the last few lottery spots.
Further down in the first round, expect to hear the name of 6-9 Tayshaun Prince of Kentucky, who started his college career as a small forward but ended it as a "power" forward despite his slender build. Also projected among the first 28 picks are another Benetton player, 6-9 combo-forward (get used to the term) Bostjan Nachbar; 6-9 "center" Carlos Boozer and possibly 6-10 Anderson Varejao of F.C. Barcelona; 6-8 3-man Boris Diaw-Riffiod; 6-8 4-man Ryan Humprey of Notre Dame; 6-6 3-man Predrag Savovic of Hawaii; 6-7 3-man Lubos Barton of Valparaiso; 7-foot 4-man David Andersen of Kinder Bologna (Italy); and/or 6-7 4-man Sam Clancy of USC.
Yes, the first round should and will be dominated by 3s and 4s.
"It's all about forwards in general,'' said Memphis director of player personal Tony Barone. "Look at Jeffries. When he comes in the league he'll be a 4 but he could play 3. Drew Gooden comes in as a 4 but he could go 3. Wilcox isn't a finished product, but he's a rebounder. Maybyner may start out as a center, but he could be a 4 if he gets out to 15 feet. He's not as bad shooting the ball as they say he is.
"No one wants to play 5,'' Barone continues. "College coaches want 5s to be 4s because a 4 indicates that he can play on the perimeter. No one wants to do the dirty work as a 5."
Western Kentucky center Chris Marcus would have had he stayed in the draft. The 7-1 center would have been a potential lottery pick, but a bad foot (Marcus had surgery Monday) sent him back to the Hilltoppers for another season and put even more emphasis on forwards come draft night.
"It's just this draft," said Woods.
"And this is what you've got a lot of," Jeffries said. "Everybody wants to score and there aren't many pure points or big 7-footers."
And it doesn't hurt that the needs of many teams are 3s and 4s to match, "the overflow of talent at the position," according to Gooden.
The most ready-made of the group is perhaps the oldest -- Ely. He has shot up to the fringe of the lottery, possibly as high as No. 13 to the Bucks. He is the only fifth-year senior outside of Gonzaga's Dan Dickau who has a shot at the lottery. And he could be the first senior selected.
"I hope so," Ely said. "I actually stuck it out."
Ely's game developed from a scrawny, angular center into a inside-out scoring forward over his four years of playing in Fresno. He went from being a subordinate role player to being a focal point as a junior and senior. His senior season was stunted by a suspension from the NCAA for an extra benefit after his roommate allegedly took a room from an agent in Las Vegas last spring.
"It's the first time in NCAA history that a player was suspended for a friend receiving an extra benefit," Ely said. "You get picked on playing for Tark. I can say that now without being suspended. I get questions no one else gets like, "Am I a jerk, or do I smoke weed all the time? These are questions I don't think Drew Gooden or Jay Williams gets asked."
One thing that the Bucks and any other team thinking about Ely won't need to ask is what position does he play. He's a true power forward.
"I play with my back to the basket," Ely said. "I think I'm one of the most polished ones in the draft. That's what I love to do."
And while it's not exactly what Dunleavy, Woods or Prince has a passion for, it can be in their repertoire just like facing the basket is possible for Gooden, Wilcox, Tskitishvili and Co. It is the dominant position in the college game and has arrived in this draft as the position of the present in the NBA.
Welcome to the league of forwards, the 3s and 4s, the 4s and 3s, the players who are the most interchangeable and versatile.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. Katz covers the NBA draft for ESPN.com and ESPN.
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