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Thursday, June 20
Updated: Monday, June 24, 10:38 AM ET
How the first round may shake down
By David Aldridge
Special to ESPN.com
I do this once a year.
I jump into Speculation Ocean and tell you what I've heard, a week before the draft.
If none of this comes true, I deny I ever wrote it. If any of it comes true, I will lord it over all of you for years to come.
So here goes. We'll divide it into lottery and post-lottery teams.
Lottery teams (picks 1-13)
 1. Houston Rockets: All the Is are not dotted, nor the Ts all crossed. But the Rockets are hopeful they'll receive clearance from the various and sundry Chinese basketball officials and be able to take Yao Ming with the first pick. They have assured the Chinese that Yao will be freed from his NBA commitments for whatever world and continental championships that feature the Chinese National Team. Since, after this year, those commitments wouldn't again arise until 2005 and 2009, the Rockets don't think it will prevent Yao from developing NBA style. This year, for example, even when Ming plays for China in the World Championships, Houston believes it may only cost him up to a week of training camp time in October. Since the first pick carries with it the usual ridiculous rumors, let's burst them one by one. 1) You can forget any talk you hear about the Rockets and Warriors swapping picks, so that Golden State can take Jay Williams first, with the Rockets hoping Jerry Krause skips Yao and lets him slide to them at three. If Yao isn't taken first, no matter what team is there, he will not leave China. 2) Wang Zhi-Zhi's status, whatever it is, does not factor into Yao's situation. The Chinese know that while Wang was here first, Yao is the person that can make a splash -- and, not unimportantly, move product. 3) Forget the rumblings about Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley being unhappy with taking a guy that's going to take a couple of years to develop. They're on board. Unless there's a dramatic governmental shift in the next 48 hours, Houston and Yao are an item.
 2. Chicago Bulls: Jay Williams, Jay Williams, Jay Williams. Book it. And then see if the Wizards or Hawks can pry Jamal Crawford from JK's little fingers.
 3. Golden State Warriors: The whirlwind courtship of Mike Dunleavy Jr., paid off. Their meeting last week assuaged Young Dunleavy's doubts about the Warriors' organization, and with Antawn Jamison committing to move back to power forward, the Warriors are ready to take the young Dookie, who legitimately was torn about coming or going back to Durham. And even though a lot of folks had him heading to Memphis early, that wasn't a lock, either; YD was genuinely concerned about taking potential PT away from his old Blue Devil teammate, Shane Battier. Now, will Mike Sr., become the head coach? I don't think that's as obvious a possibility as others. It would be very difficult for Senior to coach his kid under the best of circumstances in the NBA; it would be almost impossible on a team with as far to climb as the Warriors. I still would bet a nickel or two on Senior winding up in Memphis with old friend Jerry West by next season.
 4. Memphis Grizzlies: J Dub is telling everybody who'll ask that he's got his sights set on Drew Gooden. Do you believe The Logo? Or is he setting everyone up for a last-second conversion to Caron Butler? I believe the former, right now. The Grizzlies need as much talent as possible, and Gooden is talented -- though a man without a position at the moment. Chances of this increase if the Grizz are able to move Stromile Swift before the draft. (FYI: forget ludicrous rumors about Memphis being interested in Eddie Jones. One, he's on the till for more than $67 million through 2005, and the Grizz already have inexplicably extended Jason Williams and Mike Dickerson for $42 million apiece. They'll have to pay Battier and Pau Gasol in three years. Second, what's the matter with everyone's memory? West is the guy who gladly moved Jones from the Lakers in the first place to get an aging Glen Rice.) Grizz also adding to their brainpower on the bench by bringing in Lionel Hollins as an assistant to Sidney Lowe. Smart move.
 5. Denver Nuggets: Legitimately torn between Butler, Gooden, Nikoloz Tskitishvilli, Chris Wilcox, Nene Hilario and Dajuan Wagner. And if you were coming off a 19-win season, you'd be torn, too. That's a lot of holes to fill. Don't think the Nuggets wouldn't take Wilcox because Antonio McDyess and Juwan Howard are there. Listen carefully: Neither of them will be there next season. The Nugs have a comfort level with Tskitishvilli but there are Butler supporters in the building, too. My guess at the moment is that Kiki Vandeweghe will go Tskitishvilli, who didn't have the nicest time playing for Benetton this season. But please, please, stop comparing him to Dirk Nowitzki and Gasol. The kid's not in that class yet.
 6. Cleveland Cavaliers: They covet Butler's offensive skills and aren't worried about concerns with his athletic ability. Could step right in and play two or three. But late word is that Cleveland may have a jones for Wagner. They know he'd struggle some at the point but are dazzled by his offensive skills, and think, even at 6-0, he could play the two. Seems a little strange when you already have a small two in Wes Person, but again, the Cavs need more talent, no matter where it plays. But don't be surprised if Cleveland moves the pick and moves down, either.
 7. New York Knicks: They would love to see Maryland's Wilcox fall here. He's had nothing but great workouts the last week and a half. Even though the Cavs saw him work out both in Chicago and in Phoenix on Wednesday, chances are he may be there for Gotham -- unless Denver gums up the works and takes him at No. 5. That would really provide a problem for the Knicks, who don't want to go for Stanford's Curtis Borchardt this early. Team also still clinging to hope that someone -- anyone -- will take one of its point guards before July 1. Keep dreaming.
 8. (and 12.)LA Clippers: I keep hearing a Lamar Odom to Philly for Eric Snow scenario. For the record, both teams issue firm denials of said scenario -- even though it would make a whole lot of sense for both squads. Clips are close to inking 2000 draft pick Marko Jaric after a productive meeting with his agent in LA early this week, but just in case Jaric isn't quite ready to handle the point next season, you'd have a veteran in Snow to run the show for a year or two -- a veteran with playoff experience and locker room cred being what Alvin Gentry desperately wants on his roster next season. And in their heart of hearts, the Sixers know they need someone who can handle and create shots for others besides AI -- something LO can do in spades. And keep in mind, at the end of the day, the Clips almost never pull the trigger on big deals. As for the Clippers' draft, they'd love it if Tskitishvilli fell this far. They've listened to offers for this pick and No. 12, but may go for Borchardt and the best three on the board.
 9. Phoenix Suns: The Suns' wish list contains Jared Jeffries, high schooler Amare Stoudamire, Wilcox and Hilario. Bet on Jeffries, whose basketball IQ impresses. And everyone seems to think he's got enough of a lower body that he can hold some more weight up front without too much difficulty. Suns are comparing him to Danny Manning in terms of his game. There are still enough questions about Hilario's status with his South American team, Vasco de Gama, to give teams this high pause. Currently, he is bound to de Gama for three more years. But does he have a legitimate buyout? While it could certainly work out the way it did with another Phoenix first-round pick, Jake Tsakalidis, who got out of his deal in Europe after months of legal wrangling, there's no guarantee.
 10. Miami Heat: They look like they're committed to taking a three, whether it's Jeffries, Tskitishvilli, or Qyntel Woods from NE Mississippi Community College. Pressure on Riles from fans is to go with Woods, who's been compared with Tracy McGrady. He has a long way to go before he's in T Mac's class, but the kid is talented and confident. If the other two are off the board -- as they almost certainly will be -- it might be hard to pass on Woods. But if Miami can move Brian Grant -- a long shot, to be sure -- power forward opens up, too. Would Cleveland be interested enough in locking in a long-term contract like Grant's to move the sixth pick Miami's way?
 11. Washington Wizards: Another team looking for a three, but the Wiz don't appear sold on Woods and may be zeroing in on another Benetton forward -- one who actually played this past season -- 6-8 Bostjan Nachbar. Washington seriously coveted forward Vladmir Radmonovic last season, but couldn't pull off a deal to get a mid-first rounder to take him. They may think Nachbar is this year's Radmonovic. But it's not a done deal. Late workouts this weekend with Nachbar, Jeffries and Woods may tell the tale once and for all. And if the Wiz get cold feet on Nachbar, don't be shocked if they try to move down.
12. LA Clippers: See No. 8.
 13. Milwaukee Bucks: Either Hilario, Borchardt or Stoudamire would make sense for the Bucks, who need to add interior size. Stoudamire hasn't worked out because of a bad back for a couple of weeks, but that doesn't deter teams who like his nasty streak and work ethic.
Rest of the first round (picks 14-28)
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The Sleeper
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I give you one guy that may be taken higher than expected and turn out better than you think: University of Miami guard John Salmons, who many have projected as a three in the NBA. But the 6-7 Salmons played point for the Hurricanes, and is durable, playing 107 straight games for Miami in a strong four-year career. He's drawn the interest of several teams in the mid- to late-first round. |
The Pacers, at 14, still need some bulk to fill out their backup frontcourt spots. Fresno State's Melvin Ely would make sense. ... The Rockets, with their second first-round pick, are looking for a small forward with Walt Williams a free agent and Rice coming off of two years of injuries. If Nachbar is still available, he could be the answer. ... If the Sixers' talks with Golden State about the 16th pick are off, Philly could take a chance on a young big like Duke forward Carlos Boozer, Ely or Tennessee's Marcus Haislip. If the Warriors get the pick, Illinois point guard Frank Williams is in the mix. ... Word has New Orleans looking hard at Fresno small forward Chris Jefferies at 17. Makes sense if Jamal Mashburn's vertigo situation is in any way long-term. But keep in mind, the Hornets need to save as many dollars as possible if they're going to keep Baron Davis after this season, so New Orleans is a prime candidate to trade the pick instead of spending precious guaranteed dollars on a first-rounder. ... The Magic will deny it, but they're shopping Mike Miller more than a little bit in order to try and move up into the top 10. Orlando's need for a man in the middle would make Arkansas State center Jason Jennings a factor, or Haislip. Kansas juco Lee Benson is also a possibility. ... The Jazz have seven free agents and have to continue adding talent (Andrei Kirilenko, Real Madrid guard Raul Lopez, who may come over for next season) to prepare for the post-Stockton-Malone era. Even though they've had mixed success with high schooler DeShawn Stevenson, they'll have to consider a young big like 6-10 DeAngelo Collins from Inglewood (Calif.) High. Czech shooting guard Jiri Welsch is a possibility, too. ... The Raptors are looking to add another pick to go with the 21st overall; Gonzaga's Dan Dickau is on the short list. ... The Blazers are always looking for the next young stud athlete, so if they keep the pick and can't move up, it wouldn't shock in the least to see them go for Oregon's Fred Jones, who would have some rather obvious regional appeal. ... With their second first-rounder, the Suns are hoping Kentucky's Tayshaun Prince is still on the board. Incredible wingspan and an ability to score make him an intriguing prospect. ... The Pistons, at 23, would be delighted to find Missouri guard Kareem Rush on the board. Detroit is extremely high on the best pure shooter in the draft. ... The Nets still need to find someone who can shoot the ball consistently and who won't back down from a fight. Seems to fit Maryland's Juan Dixon perfectly. ... Denver, up again at 25, wouldn't shock if it zeroed in on Stanford's Casey Jacobsen. Nor would it shock if the Nuggets took a flier on a Euro big man like Luis Scola or David Andersen if they don't take Tskitishvilli at five. ... The Spurs won't need to pick a two if Emanuel Ginobili gets out of his Italian contract and can come over next season. But they do need to start looking for a replacement for David Robinson, so they could go for UCLA's Dan Gadzuric at 26 or a big who may stay in Europe next season like Greek center Lazaros Papadopoulos. ... The Lakers will go for best player available, but if Lindsey Hunter is seriously considering opting out of his contract (uh, that would be a mistake, Lindsey) and with Brian Shaw's future uncertain, LA might need to find a backup combo guard. Cincinnati's Steve Logan is a solid defender and good scorer. ... With David Falk backing up the Brink's truck for Mike Bibby, the Kings, picking 28th and last, are my No. 1 choice to dump their pick.
David Aldridge is an NBA reporter for ESPN.
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