SEC attempting to challenge Pac-10 supremacy in NCAA tournament
Will Arizona complete its NCAA championship three-peat? Can the SEC challenge the Pac-10's supremacy? Which teams were bracket surprises? Who was snubbed? A look at the NCAA softball tournament's biggest questions:
Is this the year the SEC stakes its claim to supremacy?
The SEC enters the NCAA tournament with five of the field's 16 national seeds in No. 1 Florida, No. 3 Alabama, No. 9 LSU, No. 13 Tennessee and No. 15 Georgia; the Pac-10 scored one fewer seed in No. 2 UCLA, No. 6 Arizona State, No. 7 Arizona and No. 12 Stanford.Florida, the SEC champion, is the tournament's top overall seed. Pac-10 champion Arizona State went 18-3 in league play and managed just the sixth overall seed.
But in the only number that really matters until one team celebrates on the field in Okalahoma City, the Pac-10 boasts the two-time reigning national champion, six of the sport's past seven champions and 19 of 25 overall (or 20 of 25 if you count the 1995 title vacated by UCLA).
So while Texas A&M, Michigan, Houston and others will either loudly point out that they're also rather interested in winning the title (or quietly steam about a lack of respect), this year's NCAA tournament has the potential to turn the budding rivalry between the Pac-10 and SEC into an all-out fast-pitch feud. With five of the eight teams that the seedings suggest will reach the Women's College World Series split between the two leagues, it only seems fair they meet in the middle of the map to settle the score.
But the opening weekend of play offers an undercard of its own. After all, along with all the championships, one of the tenets of Pac-10 dominance has long been that while other conferences may occasionally produce one or two challengers, no other league comes close in terms of depth. Arizona State and Mississippi Stage and Oregon and Arkansas offer the only potential head-to-head meetings during regionals, but how seeded teams like Tennessee and Georgia fare as favorites and teams like Auburn fare as underdogs will offer early evidence of the SEC's true depth.
Which teams have the biggest gripe with the bracket?
Snubs: The most puzzling omission is also the best example of the problematic nature of conference tournaments. Texas State played as challenging a nonconference schedule as any mid-major could reasonably be asked to concoct. During February alone, the Bobcats played Creighton (twice), Tulsa, Texas, Washington, Nevada, Arizona State and Houston -- all teams that are now in the NCAA tournament. They also played each of the four Texas schools in the Big 12 over the course of the season, including a rematch with Texas. Playing those games is one thing, but Texas State also managed wins against Texas, Washington and Creighton. Not to mention the Bobcats went 25-5 in the Southland and finished five games clear of their next-closest challenger. Their crime, apparently, was losing a 3-2 decision against Stephen F. Austin in the conference tournament -- much as at-large beneficiaries Georgia Tech, Purdue and Tulsa lost opening games in conference tournaments.NC State put together a good run in its conference tournament. Kansas and Cal-Santa Barbara both put together season-long efforts worthy of serious consideration. Minnesota finished ahead of Purdue in the regular season and beat the Boilermakers in the conference tournament. And yet no team saw more good softball deeds undone by one ill-timed run than Texas State. Building a bracket is a difficult and thankless task with no right answers and endless opportunities for second-guessing. That said, Texas State deserved better.
Seeding: Within the bracket itself, it's difficult to understand how a middle-of-the-standings team like Georgia Tech merited an at-large bid if neither of the dominant teams from its conferences merited a seed. North Carolina and Virginia Tech enter the NCAA tournament unseeded despite combining for 94 wins. Of the two, North Carolina has the biggest gripe after winning the regular-season title in the ACC. The Tar Heels didn't play the most challenging schedule in the country, but they did manage a 10-3 nonconference record against NCAA tournament teams, a mark which includes a 1-0 nine-inning loss at Florida in one of the top overall seed's only near-misses early in the season.
Did one win against Alabama really earn Georgia, which was 1-12 overall against Florida, Alabama, LSU and Tennessee, a seed as the SEC's fifth-place team? It may not really matter, considering North Carolina will host Georgia, BYU and Campbell in the Chapel Hill Regional, but it's a surprising slap at the state of ACC softball.
What is the toughest regional?
There are at least two ways to judge the toughest regional. From the standpoint of top-to-bottom talent, the field in Iowa City will have to be survived as much as conquered. For the second year in a row, Creighton is absurdly underseeded as the fourth team in a group that includes No. 14 Long Beach State, Missouri and host Iowa. Last year, Tara Oltman pitched the Bluejays to a win against Nebraska in the Lincoln Regional and lost a five-hitter against Georgia. Now a team that beat Arizona and finished the regular season in the Ultimate College Softball Top 25 and receiving votes in the ESPN.com/USA Softball poll is the supposed weak link alongside the Big West champion and the third-place teams from the Big Ten and Big 12. Between aces like Oltman, Long Beach State freshman Brooke Turner and Iowa junior Brittany Weil, and bats like those Missouri wields, there shouldn't be a bad game on the schedule for fans in Iowa -- or an easy night of sleep between now and May 18 for the coaches involved.In terms of which regional site may produce the best heavyweight fight in a potential winners' bracket game, Baton Rouge has a slim lead on a number of contenders. If No. 9 LSU beats Mississippi Valley State and Louisiana-Lafayette beats East Carolina, Saturday's winners' bracket game could be a great prelude to an inevitable rematch on Sunday. Geography placed the Ragin' Cajuns in Baton Rouge as an unseeded team, but Louisiana-Lafayette is one of the two or three best unseeded teams in the field. Pitcher Cody Trahan has been terrific down the stretch for LSU, but if Dani Hofer isn't at 100 percent, the host may struggle to keep up with Louisiana-Lafayette's bats and two-headed pitching attack with Ashley Brignac and Donna Bourgeois.
But if Baton Rouge is the most intriguing, it's not far ahead of potential threats like Virginia Tech's Angela Tincher trying to prolong her career against Tennessee in Knoxville or Northwestern and DePaul squaring off in a Lake Michigan showdown.
Who are the sleeper teams?
Championship sleeper: HoustonEven with an opportunity to play at home until it would load up the bus for Oklahoma City, Houston's road to the national championship isn't easy. Forget potentially having to get past Washington, one of last year's World Series participants, during the opening weekend of play, or LSU or Louisiana-Lafayette in a super regional. No, even if the Cougars do all that, they still would likely have to beat No. 1 seed Florida in their first game in Oklahoma City just to stay out of the losers' bracket.
But when you can cover ground as quickly as coach Kyla Holas' program has since its inception in 2001, no road is too long to travel.
In a landscape littered with young pitchers bound for greatness, Houston has a veteran who already resides in that postal code in senior Angel Shamblin. One of three pitchers in the nation with an ERA of less than 0.60, Shamblin may not be a pure strikeout pitcher, but she has both the raw stuff to get out of jams and the poise and control (24 walks in 236.2 innings) to avoid getting into them in the first place.
If Jessica Valis -- a dynamic leadoff hitter who missed the last two weeks of the season with an undisclosed injury but may be available in regionals -- is anywhere close to 100 percent, the Cougars also have one of the most balanced offenses in the field. Laurie Wagner, Elaina Nordstrom and Jennifer Klinkert all hit double-digit home runs for a team that enters the NCAA tournament with more walks than strikeouts and a .535 slugging percentage. And on top of the power, the Cougars also have three players with double-digit stolen bases and rank among Conference USA leaders in sacrifice bunts.
WCWS sleeper: Virginia Tech
No surprise lurks in the reasoning behind tabbing the Hokies as a potential surprise member of the eight teams advancing to Oklahoma City: Tincher. Scoring runs remains a challenge for the Hokies and they aren't likely to suddenly start driving balls out of the park against the caliber of pitching they'll see in the Knoxville Regional. But the lineup that supports Tincher does have some pieces in place to scratch out runs one at a time, and it shouldn't take many of them with the spectacular senior in the circle.
Getting through Knoxville, let alone a potential trip to Ann Arbor in a super regional, means the Hokies face the longest of long odds to reach Oklahoma City.
Beating those odds will require a performance as unfathomably brilliant as, say, no-hitting the United States Olympic team in Oklahoma City.
Super regional sleeper: Massachusetts
Early forecasts suggest Amherst, Mass., could be a rather wet setting for softball this weekend, which is to say, the conditions should be about the same as they've been the last two years for seeded visitors Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The bad news for No. 12 Stanford, as it tries to duplicate Oklahoma's success in Amherst and avoid the fate that befell Texas A&M (against Lehigh, in that case) two years ago, is this may be the best Massachusetts team of all.
With two years of postseason experience already under her belt, junior ace Brandice Balschmiter led the NCAA in ERA this season -- including masterful performances in losses to Stanford's Pac-10 peers, UCLA and Arizona. If the forecasts hold true, it's going to be a long, wet weekend waiting for someone to make contact if Balschmiter matches up with Stanford ace Missy Penna.
Which teams will make it to Oklahoma City?
Projected WCWS field: Florida, Houston, Stanford, Michigan, Alabama, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLALook, nobody is more disappointed in me for picking almost all chalk than yours truly, but a season's worth of softball has yet to reveal whether this is a year without any truly great teams or a year where more teams than ever before are gathered at the top of the heap. My hunch is that even without an iconic ace in the circle, this is the most compelling top tier of teams in recent memory. As a result, it's going to be tougher than ever to knock one of the top eight seeds out before a World Series that could essentially have eight co-favorites.
After a long season of Pac-10 softball, finding themselves somehow stuck with the sixth overall seed may be just the slap in the face the Sun Devils need to recharge for the postseason. Make no mistake, like Tennessee last year, Arizona State has mostly its own schedule to blame for the seeding. An early season slate loaded down with home games against lesser opponents doomed the team's RPI long before Pac-10 play. But common sense alone suggests that any team that wins 18 games in the Pac-10 and takes five of six from Arizona and UCLA is probably better than the sixth-best team in the country.
In Katie Burkhart and Kaitlin Cochran, the Sun Devils have arguably the best pitcher and best hitter, respectively, in the field. But unlike the past two seasons, they also have much more. It was freshman Krista Donnenwirth, not Cochran, who led the Pac-10 in batting average and home runs. And it was Kristen Miller who tied Donnenwirth for the league lead in RBIs. Take Cochran out of the equation and the Sun Devils still hit .320. Forget the soft schedule -- the rest of the team still hit .279 in Pac-10 play. That's a far cry from years' past.
In a balanced field of championship contenders, Arizona State is ready to win its first title.
Of course, when Fresno State and Louisiana-Lafayette square off on the first Thursday at the Women's College World Series, forget I said anything.
Graham Hays is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. E-mail him at Graham.Hays@espn3.com.

