Florida, Minnesota among favorites in women's conference tourneys
With leagues across the country handing out automatic bids to the women's NCAA tournament this week, here's a look at how things may unfold.
Big 12
The Skinny: No. 7 Kansas and No. 5 Nebraska both need quarterfinal wins in San Antonio (against No. 2 Texas A&M and No. 4 Colorado, respectively) to feel better about their NCAA tournament chances. Getting off the bubble won't be easy for either underdog against higher seeds, but the Jayhawks face the notably daunting task of needing a second win this season against the Aggies -- after beating them just once in the previous 12 seasons.
The Favorite: The Big 12 doesn't feel like a league in which the chalk is likely to hold, but perhaps that's all the more reason to look for top-seeded Oklahoma State to hold serve despite a 1-1-1 record against the other top-four seeds. No Big 12 defense has looked great in recent weeks, and the Cowgirls bring the best offense to the postseason.
The Sleeper: Facing Texas and Missouri and avoiding the side of the bracket with Texas A&M is good news for Colorado, which would like to make the most of Under-20 World Cup selection Nikki Marshall in her final collegiate duty of the season.
Big Ten
The Skinny: No. 1 seed Penn State looks like a potential top-five team in 2009, but after sharing the regular-season title with No. 2 Minnesota and losing a conference home game for the first time since 1995, receiving one of 16 NCAA tournament seeds may hinge on the Big Ten championship. On the bubble, No. 6 Ohio State needs to reach at least a semifinal shootout to be eligible for the NCAA tournament.
The Favorite: Minnesota dropped a 2-0 decision at Penn State on Oct. 17, but it forced Nittany Lions keeper Alyssa Naeher to make six saves (to be fair, the hosts played with a lead for the final 82 minutes). The Nittany Lions have Naeher for one more weekend before the U-20 World Cup, but the door is open for the Gophers at a neutral site (Iowa). Minnesota also bounced back from the loss at Penn State with seven goals in its final four games, its best offensive stretch since early September.
The Sleeper: A four-game losing streak in October knocked Illinois out of contention for the regular-season title, but late wins against Purdue and Ohio State salvaged the No. 5 seed. This is still a team that beat NCAA-caliber sides in Washington, Missouri, Washington State and Colorado College, in addition to Purdue and Michigan State.
SEC
The Skinny: While the final has its own allure, much of the intrigue in the SEC tournament may come as teams fight for NCAA tournament eligibility in the early rounds. No. 6 Tennessee and No. 7 Mississippi each need to win the conference tournament (or force a shootout in the final) to become eligible. Georgia is in far better position than those two, but the fourth-seeded Bulldogs enter 9-9-1 and can't afford a loss against fifth-seeded South Carolina in the opener.
The Favorite: Coming off the most wins in SEC regular-season history with an unbeaten 11-0-0 mark, top seed Florida is the clear favorite. Of course, Florida's win last season marked just the third time in the past six years the regular-season champ won the tournament.
The Sleeper: If things break the right way this week, it's possible each of Georgia's first 10 opponents this season will make the NCAA tournament. So don't hold that 2-7-1 start -- or the fact they've been outscored on the season -- against the Bulldogs. With a 6-1-0 finish to the regular season, they appear to have learned from the hard times.
ACC
The Skinny: As was the case two years ago, top seed North Carolina gets an opportunity to warm up for a potential College Cup commute by playing the conference tournament in nearby Cary, N.C. No. 3 Virginia, No. 4 Boston College, No. 5 Duke and possibly even No. 6 Wake Forest are angling for potential seeds in the NCAA tournament, but the Cavaliers bear perhaps the closest scrutiny after a 2-3-1 close to the regular season that will likely cost them a shot at hosting a potential NCAA tournament quarterfinal if they fail to impress in the league championship.
The Favorite: Notwithstanding second-seeded Florida State rallying from a two-goal deficit last week to earn a draw against the Tar Heels and deny Anson Dorrance's team conference perfection, the road to the ACC title literally and figuratively runs through North Carolina.
The Sleeper: Boston College enters on a roll, winning its final three regular-season games (albeit against teams from the bottom half of the standings). The Eagles also played the top two seeds better than anyone in the league, losing 1-0 at home against Florida State and 3-2 on the road against North Carolina.
Big East
The Skinny: While the hosts are a heavy favorite in South Bend, the most intriguing storyline among the final four teams in the Big East tournament may be Connecticut's quest for a miracle reprieve. The third-seeded Huskies have made every NCAA tournament to date, but they must beat No. 1 West Virginia in the semifinals and force at least a shootout in the final (thereby earning a tie in the official record) to even be eligible this year. A 0-0 draw against Mountaineers in Morgantown on Oct. 12 was a key part of a late turnaround.
The Favorite: No. 1 Notre Dame might still be the favorite even if it was forced to play on the road and with 10 players. At home in South Bend with a full lineup, this is no shocker.
Sleeper: West Virginia upset the Fighting Irish last season in the Big East tournament, albeit at home, but Mountaineers could do so again. The two top seeds didn't meet in the regular season, and West Virginia enters the semifinals on somewhat of a roll, having scored 12 goals in its past five games.
Other notable tournaments
Colonial Athletic Association: The most fascinating conference tournament may well come from the CAA, in which the top five seeds in the six-team field finished within five points of each other in the regular season. Top seed William and Mary earned the right to host the semifinals and finals after finishing three points clear of No. 2 James Madison and No. 3 UNC-Wilmington and five points clear of fourth-seeded Old Dominion and fifth-seeded Hofstra. The CAA earned three spots in last season's NCAA tournament and lived up to that haul with three first-round wins.
Conference USA: The league has sent at least two teams to the NCAA tournament in each of the past three seasons, and No. 1 seed East Carolina, No. 2 Memphis and No. 3 Central Florida all have strong cases this season. Memphis, which would meet Central Florida in a chalk semifinal, probably has the most work to do, even after earning a share of the regular-season title. Not to be overlooked, the winner of the No. 4 Colorado College-No. 5 UTEP quarterfinal will be as viable a sleeper as can be found in any conference tourney.
Mountain West: Top seed BYU should be safe regardless of what happens in the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas, but No. 2 seed Utah and No. 3 TCU can't feel nearly as comfortable. The good news is the Mountain West has sent multiple teams to the NCAA tournament every year except last season since 2001.
No conference tournament
Pac-10: UCLA and Stanford are cruising entering the final week in a league that doesn't have a conference tournament, although the Bruins have the edge after beating the Cardinal on Halloween. Barring a meltdown by the Bruins at Oregon State on Friday, the real drama will come from Arizona and Washington State fighting to survive the bubble. Conveniently enough, they meet Friday in Pullman, Wash., in a must-win for both.
West Coast Conference: The regular-season finale is a de facto championship game, with Portland visiting San Diego on Saturday in a battle of teams tied for first place. Both are NCAA tournament locks, but Portland would like to secure a top-four seed and an opportunity to get away from yet another potential quarterfinal showdown with UCLA. For its part, San Diego would greatly enhance its chances for a top-16 seed with a conference title.
Ivy League: Who needs a conference tournament for drama? The Ivy title comes down to the last round of games, with Columbia, Princeton and Harvard tied atop the standings. On Saturday, Columbia visits Harvard, while Princeton hosts fourth-place Penn. Princeton, which will know the result of the Columbia-Harvard game when it kicks off against the Quakers, probably has the strongest at-large case should it not claim the automatic berth with the league title.
Graham Hays is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. E-mail him at Graham.Hays@espn3.com.
