Work left to do:

Virginia Tech [21-14 (10-8), RPI: 52, SOS: 33] The Hokies lost by two to North Carolina and just don't have the profile to make it as an at-large team, even though they have looked very good down the stretch. They have a 1-7 mark against the RPI top 50 and their best win, against Miami, came on Friday. Their nonconference schedule has next to nothing in it and their nine regular-season conference wins were not impressive (sweeps of Maryland, BC and Virginia, and single wins over FSU, Ga. Tech and Wake).

Work left to do:

Villanova [22-13 (10-10), RPI: 43, SOS: 36] The Wildcats' loss to Georgetown in the Big East quarters looked to have done them in. The avalanche of losses later on Thursday made you take a second look at their profile, and it's better than expected when compared to bubble peers. Nova's nonconference strength of schedule isn't great and the Wildcats have a handful of suspect road losses in league play, but six of their losses are to RPI top 25 teams and they have wins over Pitt, UConn and West Virginia along with two wins over Syracuse (in three tries). The Cats' best nonconference wins were over George Mason and Temple. They were routed by city and bubble rival Saint Joseph's.

Syracuse [21-14 (9-10), RPI: 54, SOS: 7] There's no real way for the Orange to get an at-large after losing their Big East tournament opener to Villanova, especially the way it went down. The Orange look to be headed to the NIT for the second straight season, although Carnage Thursday brought them back closer to the cutline than seemed possible after Wednesday's loss.

Work left to do:

Ohio State [24-13 (10-9), RPI: 44, SOS: 20] The Buckeyes look to be in trouble after losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals. That makes them 2-10 against the RPI top 50. It's possible they could still squeak in, but things like Xavier's loss in the A-10 aren't helping. Nonconference wins over Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and against Florida were the bright spots out of Big Ten play, but both of those teams will miss the Dance. OSU also lost to Tennessee, Texas A&M, North Carolina and Butler.

Should be in:

Texas A&M [24-11 (10-9), RPI: 40, SOS: 45] The Aggies gave a very good account of themselves against Kansas in the Big 12 semis. Hopefully they bottled some of that for the NCAAs, because they should be in the field. The Aggies' best nonconference win was over Ohio State. The other nonleague wins -- UTEP, Washington, Alabama and LSU -- were decent but not great. Knocking off Texas in league play surely helps.

Kansas State [20-12 (10-7), RPI: 49, SOS: 21] In another year, K-State might be in some danger with a profile that's emptier than you would think. This year? They should be fine, even after falling to Texas A&M in the Big 12 quarters. Having a win over Kansas never hurts, but a win over Cal is the best thing on a nonconference résumé that includes losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier.

Baylor [20-11 (9-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 53] Oy. The Bears' profile looked good enough to absorb an early loss in the Big 12 tourney, but losing to 12-seed Colorado is awfully early and awfully bad. The Bears still look in relatively good shape to get in, but that was a major misstep. In nonconference play, Baylor beat Notre Dame and Winthrop on its way to the Paradise Jam title in the Virgin Islands, and it also won at South Carolina. The Bears' nonconference losses were by three points to Washington State at home and to Arkansas in Dallas.

Work left to do:

Arizona [18-15 (9-11), RPI: 42, SOS: 4] The "disaster" scenario has arrived as the Wildcats ended up 8-10 and lost in the quarterfinals to Stanford. The ridiculous thing is that it's still hard to find a way for the Cats to miss the NCAAs, given the entire landscape. Arizona would enter the tournament at 4-8 in its last 12, with two of those wins coming over Oregon State. The Cats also are now 0-7 against the RPI top 25 but 10-5 against the rest of the top 100, which is a huge number of games -- and wins -- in that category. The Wildcats should get some consideration for injuries, especially since they went 1-3 without Jerryd Bayless, their best player. Arizona's best nonconference wins were over Texas A&M and at UNLV and Houston.

Oregon [18-14 (9-10), RPI: 61, SOS: 39] The Ducks got into too deep a hole and couldn't shoot their way out against Washington State, losing to the Cougars for the third time this season. That drops Oregon to 1-8 against the four best teams in the Pac-10. And with its only real good nonconference win at Kansas State, the combination very well could place Oregon last in the Pac-10 pecking order, although Arizona State doesn't have a lot to crow about, either. If the Ducks end up behind the Sun Devils in the committee's mind, will being the seventh team from the league be enough to get in? It's not impossible, but Ducks fans shouldn't hold their breath in that case.

Arizona State [21-13 (9-10), RPI: 82, SOS: 83] The Sun Devils were the victims of the latest atrocious call in the final seconds of a Pac-10 game, with Jeff Pendergraph's game-tying dunk with less than 20 seconds left waived off for a phantom over-the-back call. Even USC's Davon Jefferson said the call was terrible. Will it be the one that sends the Sun Devils to the NIT? It's hard to say for sure at this point with so many teams missing chances Thursday. They managed to finish at 9-9 in league play and have amassed very good wins over Xavier, Stanford and USC. They also swept Arizona but the RPI/SOS combo remains weak, in large part because of a mostly poor nonleague schedule. This might be one of those teams that ultimately gets a subjective test from the committee, and ASU looks like an NCAA team at this point.

Work left to do:

Mississippi [24-11 (7-10), RPI: 38, SOS: 68] The Rebels committed an E-6 by losing to E6-seed Georgia, and they essentially ended their hopes for an at-large. The Rebels did some decent work in nonconference play and are 5-4 against the RPI top 50, which is a lot better than most bubble candidates, but the SEC performance and this early exit likely are too much to overcome. A win over ACC-lock Clemson in Puerto Rico was the out-of-league highlight, but the victory over Sun Belt co-champ South Alabama was quality, too.

Kentucky [18-13 (12-5), RPI: 58, SOS: 18] Let's start with this: Kentucky probably will get into the NCAAs. The loss to Georgia in the SEC quarters, played Saturday morning after Friday's tornado-related postponement, underscores that the Cats' entire profile is based on a 12-4 SEC slate and injury credit for some of their early-season woes. The Wildcats are fortunate everyone around them lost the past couple days. In any other season, this profile is not good enough -- and maybe shouldn't be this season, either. If they get in, it would be an incredible recovery from their early-season injuries, performance woes and the late loss of Patrick Patterson for the season. There are some ugly numbers in the profile -- no nonleague wins in the top 250, no road wins anywhere in the top 140 and a 5-10 mark against the top 100 -- but the SEC surge when the roster got healthy definitely carries weight.

Should be in:

Saint Joseph's [21-13 (12-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 55] Saint Joseph's lost to Temple in the A-10 final, but looks to have done enough to make the field of 65 after taking out top-seeded Xavier in the semis. The Hawks' collection of close nonleague losses doesn't really help their profile. Two were in overtime (Gonzaga, at Creighton), and two were close defeats (at Syracuse, Holy Cross). One problem: From that group, only the Zags will be an NCAA team.

Work left to do:

Dayton [23-11 (9-9), RPI: 30, SOS: 27] The Flyers fell short against Xavier and now likely will miss the NCAAs. The overall profile looks very solid, but a lot of that was before Chris Wright got hurt. He never made it back, so the Flyers will have to be evaluated on how they looked without him, which wasn't nearly good enough. When healthy, Dayton had two outstanding nonconference wins -- at Louisville and vs. Pitt.

Massachusetts [25-11 (10-7), RPI: 33, SOS: 59] Temple's title was bad news for the Minutemen, who sit right on the edge of the bubble and might have needed that at-large spot to remain available. The Minutemen blew a 17-point halftime lead to lose their A-10 quarterfinal to Charlotte, which could be the loss that KOs them. The RPI/SOS combo is just OK and the best nonleague wins were at Syracuse and over Houston.

Should be in:

South Alabama [24-7 (17-3), RPI: 41, SOS: 105] The Jaguars were one of the teams doing back flips Thursday, as oodles of bubble challengers choked on their chances to displace them. The semifinal loss to Middle Tennessee State was not a good one, but the Jaguars should be able to overcome it. South Alabama's three nonconference losses were at Ole Miss by three, at Vandy by three in double overtime and by five to Miami (Ohio) in Anaheim. Its best nonleague win was at home over Mississippi State.

Work left to do:

Illinois State [24-10 (15-6), RPI: 36, SOS: 67] Was Thursday the miracle day Redbirds fans were dreaming of? It couldn't have gone any better for a team that already had finished its schedule, and with so many teams blowing chances to pass ISU, the Redbirds' profile will get another strong look. The computer numbers look decent, but there's not a ton of heft in the actual games. Their best nonconference win was over Cincinnati. Finishing second by multiple games in a top-10 league and getting to that conference's final is a pretty solid statement, though.

UAB [23-11 (12-5), RPI: 47, SOS: 73] UAB crashed out against Tulsa in the C-USA quarterfinals and most likely destroyed its at-large hopes. The Blazers finished second in the conference and beat Kentucky for their best nonconference win, but that's probably not enough.

Virginia Commonwealth [24-8 (16-4), RPI: 57, SOS: 151] The Rams breathe new life after their profile was reinvigorated by Carnage Thursday. Now how much is the three-game margin for the CAA crown and wins over Maryland, Houston and at Akron worth? Maybe enough.

New Mexico [24-9 (11-6), RPI: 62, SOS: 175] The Lobos lost by two in overtime to Utah and also might have really compromised their at-large hopes as they don't get a chance to displace UNLV by winning at their gym. They finished third in a conference that now might only get two teams in. Not much in their nonconference profile will help. You can see that just by looking at the SOS.