College Basketball Bubble Watch
With a month left, who's on the bubble?
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Welcome to Bubble Watch, the ever-changing, ever-fascinating exercise that focuses solely on which teams will grab the precious 34 at-large slots in the 2006 NCAA Tournament. First a word to the wise: Bubble Watch is a compilation of the likely bubble candidates as if today were Selection Sunday. With a month left, it's not practical to list every team that has the slightest bubble chance. As the season progresses and teams improve their profiles, you'll see them on this list. If your school isn't here, it is not considered a truly viable at-large team at this point. So how does the initial snap shot look? There is pretty good news for the mid-majors out there that feel the power conferences gobble up too many of the bids.
Being fairly strict, here is the current power conference distribution (including locks and teams that are considered likely to be in):
Figuring in the relative status of the current teams "on the bubble" (and being fairly generous in a couple of cases), the best current estimate looks more like this: Making the fairly safe assumption that the automatic bid winners in each conference will come from the pools of teams below (and therefore not potentially "steal" an extra bid for the conference), the six power conferences are taking 26 of the 34 at-large spots (32 total projected bids minus six auto bids). That still leaves eight spots open, with few viable ways for the power conferences to get more than this allocation. Those eight spots also are dependent upon teams like Bucknell and Gonzaga winning their conference tournaments, so the Patriot and WCC don't get an extra team. Memphis would also be in that mix, unless UAB (the only viable C-USA bubble team at the moment) wins the auto bid. Who looks best set to fill that void? The MVC, which has four very strong at-large candidates that have shown minimal separation from each other. The A-10 probably will grab one or two, as well. The MAC? It looks like another one-bid season. Without further ado, the bubble ...
(Note: Bubble Watch will be updated twice weekly until late February, when it will be updated daily through Selection Sunday. Records are D-I only.) |
| Atlantic Coast Conference | |
| Teams that should be in: North Carolina, Boston College Work left to do: Maryland, Miami (FL)  Looks good to get four in at the moment. Can the ACC grab one (or more) more from what looks to be a very soft bubble?Should be in: North Carolina [27-4 (14-4), RPI: 3, SOS: 27] Heels have a very solid RPI and SOS and a number of legit Ws (at Kentucky, vs. NC State, vs. Arizona, at Maryland) to fall back on. Heels look very good right now for a Dance ticket. Boston College [22-11 (10-8), RPI: 60, SOS: 70] No huge signature W (only 1-4 against RPI Top 50) but a solid RPI and a host of road wins (8-3 road/neutral record) put the Eagles safely in at this point. Work left to do: Maryland [20-13 (9-10), RPI: 54, SOS: 23] Loss to Duke latest missed opportunity for Terps. Beat BC at home, but have lost Chris McCray and a host of games to top-tier foes. RPI is fading despite very strong SOS. 1-7 mark against the RPI Top 50 puts the Terps on shaky ground right now. Miami (FL) [17-12 (7-10), RPI: 65, SOS: 35] Canes have a questionable RPI and are only 2-6 vs. RPI Top 50. Best win so far is probably at UNC, but the beauty of the ACC is that Miami will have more chances -- namely its next three (UNC, at BC, at Duke). |
Locks
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| Big East Conference | |
Work left to do: Syracuse, Marquette, Cincinnati, Seton Hall Louisville fans are going to scream, but the Cards' profile screams NIT at the moment. Big East still looks good for seven bids and quite possibly more.
Jay Bilas' take: Marquette is the best team from this bubble group, but there have been some injury problems. If Wes Matthews comes back 100 percent, that would be a big boost. The rest, in order, would be Syracuse, Cincy and Seton Hall. Injuries have hampered the Bearcats, but the win over Louisville was huge to validate the resume (sort of like Iowa and Texas last season). Work left to do: Syracuse [25-9 (14-8), RPI: 12, SOS: 7] Five Ls in last six have Orange in a good amount of trouble. Must make hay in next three (at SJU, Cincy, L'ville) before rough final stretch. Only 1-6 vs. RPI Top 50 (only win over crippled Cincy squad). Marquette [24-9 (13-7), RPI: 35, SOS: 52] Golden Eagles have the huge win over UConn and ... a bunch of close calls against big names. Solid profile all around; would like to see at least one more big notch on the belt (2-5 vs RPI Top 50). Schedule down the stretch is not easy. Cincinnati [17-14 (8-11), RPI: 84, SOS: 49] Huge win over Louisville Monday night to stop skid at six out of eight. RPI is holding, SOS is killer. Only 2-5 vs. RPI Top 50 but 6-2 vs. 51-100, which can only help a bubble cause. Return match at Syracuse on Feb. 15 may be crucial to UC hopes. Seton Hall [16-15 (8-12), RPI: 101, SOS: 66] Six straight Ws have unheralded Seton Hall right in the mix. 2-3 vs RPI Top 50 and 5-2 vs. 51-100. UConn and WVU come to the Meadowlands in next two -- getting one would be an enormous boost. |
Locks
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| Big Ten Conference | |
Teams that should be in: Michigan, Indiana This is the most clearly defined conference in the nation. I'd be surprised if the league's top seven don't all get in, but a couple are making things trickier than they needed to be.
Jay Bilas' take: The top seven should be in, barring a monumental collapse, even with injuries hindering several of them. Should be in: Michigan [19-13 (10-10), RPI: 44, SOS: 11] Defense has been torched in last two losses and now the pressure is on in the next two (at Purdue, Minnesota). Get both and the Wolverines should only need one of the rough last four to get in. Only 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50 but 6-0 vs. 51-100. Basically, a team that's beaten the teams it's supposed to beat. Indiana [5-25 (1-18), RPI: 216, SOS: 9] You'd like to think the Hoosiers are basically all set, but IU's losing steam and that bad loss at Minnesota may come back to bite. IU is 4-4 vs. RPI Top 50 and does have Penn State twice and Purdue left on the conference schedule. |
Locks
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| Big 12 Conference | |
| Teams that should be in: Kansas Work left to do: Iowa State, Colorado  I would imagine, when all is said and done, the Big 12 will get at least four and possibly five bids. That said, right now there are only two absolute locks.
Jay Bilas' take: I think Kansas is in better shape than most others right now. Both the Buffs and the Cyclones have a lot more work to do. They've been very inconsistent. Who have they beaten? CU loss at Texas A&M was harmful. Should be in: Kansas [25-7 (14-3), RPI: 11, SOS: 22] Baby Hawks are growing up right before Lawrence eyes. Recovered nicely from brutal back-to-back Ls with six straight Ws and next four are all winnable (three at home). KU looking very good right now. Work left to do: Iowa State [14-17 (4-13), RPI: 167, SOS: 106] A fun team to watch that has been shockingly beatable at Hilton Coliseum. 6-2 road/neutral record is a plus, as is 3-2 mark against RPI Top 50. Minuses are under-.500 conference mark and questionable RPI. Schedule is fair; Clones control their own fate down the stretch. Colorado [8-22 (1-16), RPI: 235, SOS: 64] Huge home win over Oklahoma a very important step toward the dance -- gives the Buffs another top-50 win and the marquee W they lacked previously. |
Locks
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| Pacific-10 Conference | |
Work left to do: Washington, California, Arizona, Stanford The nation's wackiest big conference only has one lock right now, but it looks fairly good for four to eventually punch their tickets to the Dance.
Jay Bilas' take: Arizona and Washington are in pretty good shape. Not talking specifically about the Wildcats and Huskies, but remember that 65 teams have to make it, so some teams that don't necessarily "feel" like Tournament teams will get in. Work left to do: Washington [24-8 (15-5), RPI: 14, SOS: 16] Cruised past USC in a must-win, but schedule the rest of the way is very unfriendly, as is the weakening overall profile. 3-1 vs. RPI Top 50 and a road win at UCLA help. California [22-10 (11-8), RPI: 39, SOS: 43] Enormous home W against Stanford puts the Bears in very solid shape. RPI is middling, but is there any way the NCAA will ding the second-place team from the Pac-10 (unless it's Stanford)? I don't think so. Two Ws in the last six should seal the deal, even with current 1-1 RPI Top 50 mark. Arizona [19-13 (9-10), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] Huge two-point win over Oregon really could be the difference. Cats now probably only need three of the last six to be sure. Nine Ws may even be enough with the very strong computer numbers. Stanford [18-13 (7-13), RPI: 106, SOS: 137] Lost a tough one at Cal which really could be a pivotal game for the Cardinal. Really must win at Gonzaga on Saturday night to have any real chance of an at-large unless they somehow win the league outright -- that's how bad Stanford's start was. |
Locks
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| Southeastern Conference | |
Work left to do: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama A four-bid year is not at all out of the question. Could go one bid in either direction given late-season results.Work left to do: Kentucky [20-13 (9-9), RPI: 79, SOS: 61] Four nasty road trips remain, with no soft touches on the slate. Only 1-6 vs RPI Top 50 (W over West Virginia) and two ugly blowout losses to IU and Kansas. What happens if the Cats finish 8-8? A lot of breath-holding in Lexington. Vanderbilt [19-12 (8-9), RPI: 96, SOS: 122] Very nominally on the bubble at the moment. Need to get Ws ... and get them quickly. Alabama [16-14 (8-10), RPI: 108, SOS: 68] Lose your best player and start winning games? Tide's interesting strategy amazingly has them back in the hunt. Only 2-5 vs RPI Top 50 and 2-4 on the road, but 6-3 in conference play really helps. |
Locks
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| Atlantic 10 Conference | |
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Locks
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| Other at-large contenders | |
| Teams that should be in: San Diego State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Bucknell Work left to do: Utah State, Temple, UAB, George Mason, Nevada, Milwaukee, Charlotte, North Carolina-Wilmington Given the weakness in some of the major conferences, is this the season the mids rise up and grab more than their "fair share"? We'll believe it when we see it, but there should be some bids up for grabs in the final days before Selection Sunday. Should be in: San Diego State [21-9 (13-6), RPI: 34, SOS: 33] With eight Ws in a row, Aztecs are looking very solid for the MWC crown. If they get it, they'll be hard to deny an at-large despite complete lack of resume heft (0-1 vs Top 50). Southern Illinois [12-18 (8-11), RPI: 146, SOS: 67] Salukis probably are fourth in line in the Valley, but the conference really should get all four in. Split with Wichita State. 3-3 vs RPI Top 50 and 7-5 on the road are both plusses for a mid. Wichita State [15-16 (9-11), RPI: 158, SOS: 130] Shockers don't have the buzz or the star power of some of the other Valley teams, but they are just as good and the profile shows that. Just-after-the-buzzer 3 kept WSU from huge marquee W over Illinois. BracketBusters game vs. George Mason has very big at-large implications. Bucknell [7-23 (4-11), RPI: 295, SOS: 145] Win at Northern Iowa in BracketBusters would be nice insurance in case something screwy happens in Patriot play. Hard to imagine the Bison would get shafted, but the "marquee" win at Syracuse is losing some glitz and BU got beaten soundly in big shots against Nova and at Duke. Stranger things have happened ... Work left to do: Utah State [29-4 (17-2), RPI: 23, SOS: 133] If Aggies can win the WAC, they would have a very legit claim. Their overall profile stacks up very favorably to Bucknell's. Temple [22-11 (14-5), RPI: 30, SOS: 34] What else is new? Owls have all the credentials except the wins. Temple has very winnable A-10 games left and a huge home game against Duke that could be a difference-maker in an at-large profile. UAB [22-11 (12-6), RPI: 46, SOS: 71] Looked in good shape to follow Memphis in from C-USA until the Blazers were throttled at UTEP by 28. UAB and UTEP don't play again in the regular season; can the committee skip a team in what looks to be, at best, a two-bid conference? George Mason [22-10 (15-6), RPI: 51, SOS: 103] The only CAA team with a real at-large chance, the Patriots need to get the CAA regular-season crown to feel good about at-large hopes. 6-3 vs RPI Top 100. Game at Wichita State could be an at-large play-in game. Nevada [20-12 (13-6), RPI: 83, SOS: 76] No huge win (1-2 vs RPI Top 50) but lots of solid ones (5-1 vs 51-100) put Pack in pretty solid position. Would like to make sure of a top-two WAC finish. Akron in BracketBusters could have ramifications. Milwaukee [15-14 (12-8), RPI: 134, SOS: 132] No heft (0-2 vs Top 50) and weakening profile (three Horizon Ls) make it very dicey for last year's Sweet 16 darling. Better win the conference tourney to be sure. Charlotte [11-20 (5-11), RPI: 209, SOS: 107] A-10 should be a multi-bid league and Charlotte currently is second (and, more importantly, multiple games up on at-large competitors Xavier and Temple). RPI and nonconf SOS are terrible. North Carolina-Wilmington [7-25 (3-16), RPI: 277, SOS: 108] Worth mentioning if UNCW can win the CAA regular-season crown. RPI is dicey for a mid-major at-large. 8-6 road/neutral record helps, but two sub-150 losses don't. |
Locks
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