Should be in:

Florida State [25-9 (12-7), RPI: 15, SOS: 19] Won at Duke for the first time to get a second marquee win for the ledger and edge above .500 in ACC play after starting 0-3. Excellent computer numbers get them a bump, mostly because I can't rationalize having two levels between Duke and FSU right now. I'd like to see another win or two, as the computer numbers are partially a product of playing (and getting pounded by) Pitt, Wisconsin and UNC. They did beat Florida. FSU still has road dates at Clemson, Virginia, Maryland and Miami, but beating the Canes and winning the three home games (BC, Ga Tech and NC State) gets them to 9-7, which should get them into the NCAAs.

Boston College [22-11 (10-8), RPI: 60, SOS: 70] So much for losing Sean Williams and losing the season. BC's now 3-2 since losing its shot-blocker, including a 21-point pasting of Va Tech last time out. That said, the remaining schedule is very rough, and even getting to 9-7 only leaves the Eagles at 18-11 heading into the ACC tourney. Last seven are at Miami, at FSU, Duke, UNC, at VT, Clemson, at GT. The game in Miami could be very key.

Virginia Tech [18-14 (8-10), RPI: 61, SOS: 24] We'll give the Hokies a mulligan for their 21-point L at BC, but that makes the home date against Virginia on Saturday a lot more important, given the two after that are on the road at NC State and UNC. Funny how things can change in a week. Will those two one-point L's come back to bite? Wins over Duke and North Carolina, along with a handful of other decent W's, support an at-large cause.

Virginia [10-18 (4-13), RPI: 114, SOS: 1] One of the impressive in-season turnarounds in the land. Left for dead after the Puerto Rico disaster and (competitive) losses to Stanford, UNC and BC, the Cavaliers have ripped off seven wins in a row, lead the ACC and have an extremely manageable schedule the rest of the way. Computer numbers still are a little soft (and won't be helped by the game against Longwood; hopefully the Lancers won't bring ham sandwiches with them and get another coach agitated) but that probably won't matter because UVA looks solid for 11 or 12 ACC wins. They also have beaten Arizona and Gonzaga.

Work left to do:

Clemson [23-8 (9-8), RPI: 28, SOS: 47] The Tigers are going the other way, having lost five of six since a 17-0 start. The schedule remains favorable the rest of the way, but after the Tigers were pasted by 18 at Ga Tech, you start to wonder where the wins will come from. Clemson definitely wants to get to at least 8-8 in ACC play, so the next two (FSU, at Wake) are absolutely critical. If they don't get both, they could be courting trouble.

Maryland [20-13 (9-10), RPI: 54, SOS: 23] Terps suffered another devastating home loss Tuesday night, this time to Virginia. Now they need to go 5-2 just to get to .500 in ACC play (which still will be precarious). Beating Duke at home Saturday is a must; the Terps still have road games at NC State, Clemson and Duke and face UNC at home. The CvC title seems like ages ago for a team that's lost five of its last eight.

Georgia Tech [12-19 (3-15), RPI: 139, SOS: 32] Got important wins over Clemson and NC State at home to stay alive, but the Jackets still are in a lot of trouble. They only will be strongly favored in one of their final six (home to Wake Forest) and still have road games at Florida State, Duke and Virginia. Home game next against UConn isn't worth what everyone expected it would be. Wins over Memphis and Duke help, but not enough at this point.

Should be in:

Georgetown [16-14 (7-12), RPI: 57, SOS: 5] Five wins in a row have the Hoyas in very good shape. The schedule's not super-easy, but there are wins to be had the rest of the way. Computer numbers are so-so, but double-digit Big East wins will remedy that.

Notre Dame [17-14 (9-11), RPI: 77, SOS: 57] Losing at South Florida is not the way you want to follow up a big bounce-back week. Nonconference wins over Maryland and Alabama are getting weaker, which explains the middling RPI. Irish better not fool around -- the schedule is very reasonable, so they need to probably should win four of the last six to feel completely safe.

Work left to do:

Louisville [28-5 (19-2), RPI: 4, SOS: 15] Tough loss at 'Nova makes the next two home games (G'town and South Florida) extremely important with roadies at Pitt and Marquette on tap after that. 10 wins in league play (and 20 overall) still remains reasonable, which would make for a very interesting case come March. Only 1-5 vs. RPI Top 50 with a weak NonConf SOS (160).

Syracuse [25-9 (14-8), RPI: 12, SOS: 7] Orange fans should start being concerned, as the loss at UConn makes it four of five in the L column. The next three games (St. John's, at South Florida, UConn) are absolutely crucial as the final three (at Provy, G'town, at 'Nova) are not easy. The win at Marquette definitely helps on the marquee ledger, but not enough right now with home losses to Wichita State and Drexel on the tab, too.

Villanova [26-7 (14-6), RPI: 13, SOS: 30] Good week for the 'Cats, but there still is some work to do. Computer numbers remain excellent, but there's no huge marquee win to shop around. The schedule down the stretch has some more wins available, so I like Nova's chances, but the 'Cats need to get to .500 or better in conference before they can bump back up to "Should Be In," even though I think they will be.

West Virginia [23-11 (12-9), RPI: 21, SOS: 14] Got the road sweep of the Jersey schools to put itself in position. The schedule is brutal (Pitt, UCLA, at G'town, at Providence, Pitt all in next six) but with home games against Seton Hall and Cincy left, too, the 'Eers might only need to get one of those (especially a league game) and win the two home games to have a very legit case. The computer numbers will be helped by the opposition and 10-6 in the Big East always looks good.

Providence [19-13 (11-9), RPI: 72, SOS: 53] Good effort at Marquette almost was wiped out by a near collapse against Cincy, but the Friars held on. They could very well lose the next two (at Pitt, at ND) to drop under .500, and while the last five are all winnable, having the pressure of getting at least four to get to 9-7 means an upset in the next two would be huge.

Should be in:

Indiana [5-25 (1-18), RPI: 216, SOS: 9] Somewhat disappointing loss at feisty Iowa took a little shine off the marquee win over Wisconsin, but the Hoosiers still look solid to get to 10 Big Ten wins and make their way into the dance. IU also has beaten MVC co-leader Southern Illinois and none of its nonconference losses -- Butler (N), at Duke, at Kentucky -- is bad at all.

Work left to do:

Michigan State [26-6 (16-4), RPI: 6, SOS: 6] Not unexpectedly, the Spartans dropped the first three games of what could be the toughest Last 10 in the land. Now the Spartans need to start winning games, though. The computer numbers are middling for an at-large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley.

Purdue [25-9 (14-7), RPI: 20, SOS: 28] Beat Penn State to stay in contention. If the Boilermakers can somehow get through the next four (Michigan St., at Ohio State, Indiana, at Iowa) with at least a split, the last three are home-and-home with Northwestern wrapped around a home game with Minnesota. 9-7 would be in reach, and so would an NCAA berth.

Illinois [24-9 (12-8), RPI: 22, SOS: 26] Four road games in their final six, but two are at Minnesota and Penn State, so the Illinois will have their chances to get to 9-7 in the conference. Home and home with the Wildcats is on tap, sandwiched around a trip to Indiana. SOS is good, RPI is questionable.

Michigan [19-13 (10-10), RPI: 44, SOS: 11] It seems too early to have a "must win," but after four straight losses and with the schedule remaining, Michigan's home game against Minnesota Saturday is an absolute must-win if the Wolverines hope to make the NCAAs. There is no marquee win and they were splattered in several name games. Only 3-6 against the RPI Top 100 and a nonconference SOS of 147 aren't helping, either.

Should be in:

Texas [22-11 (11-8), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] Gave it a good run for 35 minutes at A&M before getting worn down. Home loss to red-hot K-State doesn't help, but the Horns still should be in, despite weakish computer numbers. The Horns have beaten LSU and Arkansas and six of the losses are on the road or at neutral sites.

Kansas State [20-11 (9-8), RPI: 81, SOS: 112] One of the hottest teams around, the Wildcats got a great win at Texas and now get a "free roll" at Kansas Wednesday night. Even if they can't take down the Jayhawks for the second straight season in Lawrence, Cartier Martin & Co. still have a number of very winnable games (home-and-home with Colorado, home to Iowa State) left to improve their position. The win over USC looks good. The 30-point loss to Cal doesn't. Weirdest split of the season? K-State lost by 24 at New Mexico and then beat the Lobos by 16 a month later in Vegas (with Bill Walker).

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [13-19 (4-14), RPI: 119, SOS: 13] Brutal home loss to Nebraska in which Tech blew a late 11-point lead and got the assist on the Huskers' game-winning 3 brings the losing skid to four since the upsets of KU and A&M and puts the Red Raiders in some trouble. Computer numbers suggest the Raiders are still in OK shape, but the position in the conference and the upcoming schedule don't. Three of the next four are at OK State, A&M and Texas.

Should be in:

USC [21-12 (12-9), RPI: 38, SOS: 18] Home sweep of the Oregon schools puts the Trojans on the brink of lock-dom. Only the softish computer numbers are holding them back right now. Could essentially wrap things up by splitting the next two (at UCLA and at Arizona). Trojans have swept Oregon and already beaten 'Zona, and also have beaten GW and Wichita State (neutral).

Arizona [19-13 (9-10), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] Is the 30-point pounding of Washington a sign of things to come? We'll see, as five of the last seven are on the road. Need to get the one at Oregon State Thursday to start the stretch off right. There's no way the Cats would miss the NCAAs if the field were selected today, but I'll reserve judgment for another week for a team that's still in sixth place in the conference.

Stanford [18-13 (7-13), RPI: 106, SOS: 137] Rebounded nicely from the disappointing (in how it happened, not against whom) double-OT loss to Gonzaga by pounding rival Cal on the road. With home games against Oregon State and Arizona State left, Stanford is in very strong position (and may have pushed Cal to the brink -- an added bonus on the Farm).

Work left to do:

Washington [24-8 (15-5), RPI: 14, SOS: 16] Did the shellacking at Arizona do irreparable damage to the Huskies? They do have five of their last seven Pac-10 games at home and also have a trip to play at Pitt, so the chances are there. 6-2 appears to be at least what they need, mostly in any order. That starts by sweeping the Bay Area schools this weekend.

Should be in:

Tennessee [21-12 (12-7), RPI: 25, SOS: 2] Chris Lofton didn't do much against LSU, but just having him available has to be a boon to the Vols. Three of the the next four are at home, so Tennessee needs to bank some wins before a tough final three games. Computer numbers remain very strong.

Work left to do:

Mississippi [16-15 (7-10), RPI: 82, SOS: 20] Ole Miss is worth discussing this week after a 23-point rout of Auburn on the road. The Rebels' next two at home (Alabama, LSU) are against teams that struggle on the road -- win those and they could thrust themselves into the picture.

Vanderbilt [19-12 (8-9), RPI: 96, SOS: 122] Solid effort at Florida and a home win over Georgia is another good week for the Commodores' case. Getting a win at Tennessee Saturday would be an excellent step forward, but even without it, Vandy could still smell 10 conference wins if it plays as well as it has.

Alabama [16-14 (8-10), RPI: 108, SOS: 68] It hasn't been pretty, but Alabama got very important three-point wins at LSU and over South Carolina. Have to handle Miss. State at home before a very tricky four-game stretch that includes games at Florida and Tennessee and home to Kentucky. Don't think Ole Miss will be easy, either.

Arkansas [14-16 (2-15), RPI: 148, SOS: 65] The home loss to Kentucky hurts, but the good news is that the rest of the schedule is, by SEC standards, rather soft. Now the Hogs just need to start winning games. 9-9 very well could win the SEC West. The Razorbacks have beaten Southern Illinois on a neutral court in nonconference play.

Georgia [12-20 (3-14), RPI: 192, SOS: 74] Couldn't get either end of the Tennessee trip and now gets to host Florida for its troubles. Even if they fall to the Gators, though, the Bulldogs have a very favorable schedule in the next five after that with which to compile some SEC currency.

Beyond that, here's the best approximation of the teams that have a reasonable chance at this point of an at-large bid.

Worth noting -- there's still probably no reasonable at-large candidate in the MAC (despite Akron's progress, the Zips are only 1-2 against the Top 100), WCC (outside of Gonzaga, although Santa Clara's playing well) or C-USA (outside of Memphis), and it's debatable whether the CAA has one, although VCU's putting together an honest case.

Should be in:

Brigham Young [24-7 (13-5), RPI: 29, SOS: 62] The surprise leader of the MWC gets a bump up in class after surviving at Wyoming. The Mountain West looks good to get three bids.

Work left to do:

Xavier [25-7 (13-5), RPI: 17, SOS: 41] The Loss at Duquesne (which is one of the less-pubbed stories of the year, btw) hurts. The Musketeers have beaten VCU, Villanova, Illinois and Kansas State, but also lost at a bad Cincy team by 10 and to Bucknell.

Gonzaga [25-5 (16-0), RPI: 26, SOS: 93] Somewhat surprising loss at Loyola Marymount drops the Zags into a tie with Santa Clara atop the WCC. They now get four straight (essentially) at home -- the first two (St. Mary's and Santa Clara) could decide the regular-season crown, and then Memphis comes to Spokane Arena for a high-profile nonconference game. The Zags have beaten UNC, Texas and Washington and not really done anything egregious on the downside, other than the total number of losses. The computer numbers aren't great, though. Even if they don't win the WCC's auto bid, I'd have a hard time not taking the Zags, but what if they finish second in the regular season, too??

Virginia Commonwealth [24-9 (17-4), RPI: 50, SOS: 105] Lost at Hofstra, which spoiled an unbeaten CAA mark, but if they can win at ODU on Saturday, they very well could win the league -- which should be worth an at-large in my book. There's no real heft anywhere in the nonconference win column and the overall SOS is terrible for an at-large candidate, but how could the committee neg the winner of the CAA, especially if it's by multiple games and/or with a gaudy record?

Davidson [25-7 (19-3), RPI: 69, SOS: 165] If the Wildcats can get past CofC on the road, they'll probably win their last five to close SoCon play and win the league at 17-1. Not being in BracketBusters might really hurt, and they don't get another shot at App State, the only SoCon loss, until the conference tournament.

Old Dominion [21-10 (13-7), RPI: 103, SOS: 211] The Monarchs are making their move in the CAA, winning at Drexel and George Mason to get to 10-3 and within shouting distance of VCU and Hofstra. BracketBusters roadie at Toledo doesn't do all that much for the profile, despite the Rockets' MAC record. None of the losses is bad and the win at Georgetown was very nice, but the Monarchs very well might need to get a piece of the CAA regular-season crown to have a legit claim for an at-large.

Hofstra [20-11 (12-8), RPI: 104, SOS: 196] Beat VCU at home to get within a game of the league leader, but probably needs to win the league outright to have a real legit at-large claim. Holy Cross in BracketBusters is a classic "no help" game for the Pride, one that is no gimme at all in the W column.

New Mexico State [17-15 (10-8), RPI: 117, SOS: 99] Loss at Utah State hurts and the Aggies at-large hopes may not survive the next two games (at Fresno and Hawaii). This team is better than its computer numbers indicate, but as the host of the conference tournament, it's probably going to be too hard to overcome a home loss there, too.

Drexel [15-14 (10-9), RPI: 133, SOS: 144] At-large hopes are fading after a home loss to ODU helped push the Dragons into fourth in the CAA. They may need to run the regular-season table now, including winning at Creighton in BracketBusters, to have a real legit claim. The Dragons have a number of very good wins (including at Syracuse, at Villanova, vs. Saint Joe's) and several curious losses (at Penn by 19, at Rider) in nonconference play.

Massachusetts [11-18 (7-10), RPI: 151, SOS: 50] Thumped Richmond in only action of the week. 0-3 against the RPI Top 50 isn't good at all, but the 9-4 road/neutral mark is very solid.

George Washington [10-18 (4-12), RPI: 202, SOS: 109] Not much to say. Losses at Dayton and Saint Louis may have doused at-large hopes. Computer numbers are soft.

Appalachian State [12-18 (10-12), RPI: 249, SOS: 253] A four-point loss at Furman may prove too much to overcome. The Puerto Rico tournament title that included wins over Virginia and Vandy, and a subsequent win over VCU, all look great right now. If the SoCon final is Davidson/App State, that's must-watch TV for any good basketball fan.

Winthrop [10-19 (9-10), RPI: 255, SOS: 195] Torrell Martin's back but isn't 100 percent yet. Still, the Eagles are surviving and have stayed unbeaten in the Big South. The Eagles probably need to stay perfect and win at MO State in BracketBusters to have a legitimate at-large chance. Missing on all four marquee nonconference chances and having four non-D-I wins on the ledger is not going to help at all, which is a shame, because this team can really play.