Work left to do:

Georgia Tech [16-6 (5-4), RPI: 24, SOS: 13] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

Florida State [17-6 (5-4), RPI: 37, SOS: 51] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Clemson [16-7 (4-5), RPI: 43, SOS: 37] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Work left to do:

Syracuse [23-1 (10-1), RPI: 2, SOS: 15] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

Villanova [21-2 (10-1), RPI: 3, SOS: 34] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

West Virginia [19-4 (8-3), RPI: 5, SOS: 4] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [12-11 (4-7), RPI: 102, SOS: 73] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

DePaul [8-15 (1-10), RPI: 154, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

Should be in:

Michigan State [19-5 (9-2), RPI: 14, SOS: 36] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [9-13 (3-7), RPI: 223, SOS: 148] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Purdue [19-3 (7-3), RPI: 11, SOS: 45] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Illinois [16-8 (8-3), RPI: 72, SOS: 92] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Michigan [10-12 (4-7), RPI: 140, SOS: 67] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [8-16 (2-9), RPI: 191, SOS: 30] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

Work left to do:

Kansas State [18-4 (6-3), RPI: 8, SOS: 3] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.

Texas Tech [15-7 (3-5), RPI: 33, SOS: 16] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [16-7 (4-5), RPI: 36, SOS: 27] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Should be in:

Stanford [10-13 (4-7), RPI: 157, SOS: 87] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Work left to do:

Mississippi [17-6 (5-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 57] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-7 (4-4), RPI: 71, SOS: 151] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

Georgia [10-11 (2-6), RPI: 88, SOS: 6] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Alabama [13-10 (3-6), RPI: 103, SOS: 63] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Beyond that, here's the best approximation of the teams that have a reasonable shot at an at-large bid at this point.

Worth noting: There's no reasonable at-large candidate in the MAC or C-USA (outside of Memphis), and more and more likely the WCC, too. VCU, the CAA champ, has a fairly legit case, even without any nonconference wins to back it. Beyond that? It could be a big year for the middling high-majors; this field is not terribly inspiring.

Should be in:

Brigham Young [21-3 (7-2), RPI: 22, SOS: 122] Got worked over at SDSU and needs to win at Air Force (which no one does) to retain control of the league. The lack of any nonconference heft is an issue, especially if there ends up being a two- or three-way tie for the regular-season crown. The Mountain West looks very good to get (at least) three bids this season, so BYU should be fine, but there's not a ton of room for error if the Cougars lose at Air Force on Tuesday.

Work left to do:

Gonzaga [18-4 (7-1), RPI: 23, SOS: 71] The Zags got a break when Santa Clara lost at Loyola Marymount, moving Gonzaga back into a tie for the league lead, but it's still looking as if the Zags will need the auto bid. The OT loss to Memphis showed the Zags could be competitive with elite-level teams without Josh Heytvelt, but that might not be enough now. The Zags have beaten UNC, Texas and Washington, but if Heytvelt isn't allowed back, the committee will have to evaluate them on the basis on these latest performances. The computer numbers are terrible for an at-large and aren't getting better with more WCC games.

Xavier [16-7 (8-2), RPI: 27, SOS: 20] Now here's a team that's still under the radar but has a rapidly improving profile that could help the A-10 get two bids. Still co-leader in the A-10, X also has beaten VCU, Villanova, Illinois and K-State in nonconference play, so there's some solid heft there. If it wins the league's regular-season title and shows well in the tourney, it could happen.

Old Dominion [18-7 (10-3), RPI: 35, SOS: 74] The Monarchs did win out but finished second behind VCU in the CAA, which leaves them in an interesting position. None of the nonconference losses is bad, and the win at Georgetown (on campus) was very nice. A trip to the CAA finals should get this team a bid, in my opinion, but anything short of that could see the dream end.

San Diego State [14-7 (5-4), RPI: 41, SOS: 55] The late-season surge continues as the Aztecs ripped BYU. The RPI is improving, and SDSU is elbowing its way into the upper crust of the MWC, one that should have three four-loss teams if Air Force continues its home form when BYU visits. Don't discount the Aztecs' chances of winning their last two to get to 11-5 -- or of winning the MWC Tournament and possibly stealing a bid. Could this league get four? It's not impossible at this point.

Virginia Commonwealth [17-5 (9-4), RPI: 49, SOS: 134] The Rams will be a very interesting at-large case. The computer numbers are extremely questionable, but how do you neg the regular-season champion of the CAA? I think that would be wrong. The home loss to Bradley in BracketBusters hurts, and there's no real heft anywhere in the nonconference win column.

Drexel [14-11 (9-4), RPI: 93, SOS: 93] The kings of the road are still alive, but with a fourth-place finish in the CAA, they have some work to do in the conference tourney. The good news is that they get league kingpin VCU in the semis, so they can make a statement there. The Dragons have a number of very good wins (including at Syracuse, at Villanova, versus Saint Joe's) and several curious losses (at Penn by 19, at Rider) in nonconference play. They also have 13 road wins, which is a huge number. A very interesting at-large case, especially as they have a much better profile than Hofstra despite finishing a game behind the Pride for third in the CAA.

Wright State [15-9 (8-5), RPI: 94, SOS: 170] The Raiders gaveth (lost to Youngstown State) and gotteth back (Butler losing to Loyola-Chi) and now have home-court advantage for a possible rubber match with the Bulldogs. It doesn't look as if the Raiders have any real at-large hopes, but getting HCA in the conference tournament might make things harder on the at-large pool, as Butler definitely will get in either way.

Appalachian State [12-9 (8-4), RPI: 126, SOS: 178] The Mountaineers got their last two to finish the regular season with 24 wins (including three non-DI victories) and need to be taken seriously as an at-large candidate. They got a very big win at Wichita State in BracketBusters to provide another quality W to go along with VCU, Virginia and Vanderbilt. It's also very worth noting that the Mountaineers are 19-3 (one non-DI win included) since Virginia transfer Donte Minter became eligible. That makes it easier to ignore the thrashings Va Tech and Clemson put on them early in the season. If the SoCon final is Davidson vs. App State, that's must-watch TV for any good basketball fan -- and could mean both teams make it to the NCAAs, which would be amazing.

Davidson [10-11 (7-4), RPI: 166, SOS: 118] The Wildcats trucked through their last two games to finish at 17-1 and a league champ by two games over App State. You could have a conference final between Davidson and App State in which the two teams have a combined 54 wins. That would be incredible. Davidson has two non-DI wins itself, but could the committee really not take a long look at a team that would have 26 D-I wins if it loses in the SoCon final? The Wildcats won Arizona State's Christmas event (also beating Ohio from the MAC) and beat the MAC's Western Michigan and pasted disappointing Charlotte by 28 in their best nonconference moments. They did lose by 28 at Duke, but have won 22 of their last 23 games.

Hofstra [11-13 (5-8), RPI: 177, SOS: 129] Ended up third in the CAA, and with the fourth-place team having a much better at-large profile, it looks like auto bid or bust for the Pride.

Winthrop [11-10 (9-4), RPI: 186, SOS: 244] Part of me is dying to see High Point take out the Eagles in the Big South final just to see what the committee would do. I would hope they could look past the numbers and acknowledge that Winthrop is a legitimate team worthy of an at-large bid. Torching MO State from the arc in the Friday night BracketBusters main event was very big for a team that lacks a real marquee win. The Eagles probably still need to win out until the Big South title game to have a really legit chance at an at-large, but this team should be dancing. It's good enough. The four non-DI wins might be a killer, though, as could be missing on all four marquee nonconference chances.

Massachusetts [7-15 (2-7), RPI: 196, SOS: 72] The Minutemen remain the co-leaders of the A-10, but I'm not sure how much that does for them. They need to win their last two (La Salle and at Saint Joe's) to claim a share of the crown and have any chance at an at-large. Other than the win at Louisville (which really is helping these days), the Minutemen don't have much else to push as evidence.

Santa Clara [8-16 (2-7), RPI: 211, SOS: 107] The Broncos lost again to LMU and might be forced to share the WCC crown with Gonzaga. Another team with a profile that screams "need auto bid." The Broncos beat Stanford at Maples but also lost to Nevada and Kentucky and split with Gonzaga and, more damagingly, got mauled by Cal, Missouri State and Air Force.