Should be in:

Miami (FL) [17-12 (7-10), RPI: 65, SOS: 35] The Canes got a very important two-point win over Virginia on Saturday and remain on course to make the NCAAs. The strong computer numbers hint that Miami merely needs two more wins, either regular season or in the ACC tournament, to feel pretty good about its chances, so the Canes get a bump up in pecking order. Miami had a few credible wins in nonconference play, including victories over Mississippi State and VCU, which is more than a number of other bubble teams have to offer.

Work left to do:

Maryland [20-13 (9-10), RPI: 54, SOS: 23] That. Was. Bad. The Terps blew a 20-point lead midway through the second half to lose at home to Clemson by three. The season finale at Virginia is now a must win, and the Terps look like they very well will need to win two in the ACC tournament, as well. Remember, Miami (only meeting) and Virginia Tech (sweep) have head-to-head tiebreakers. Their RPI is now extremely questionable for an at-large bid, due in part to a large number of home and neutral-site losses. One of those, to VCU, could hurt in a head-to-head comparison if the Rams don't win the CAA's automatic bid.

Virginia Tech [18-14 (8-10), RPI: 61, SOS: 24] The Hokies continued their surprise surge toward the NCAAs with a win over Wake Forest on Tuesday. Now they travel to Clemson for a very important season finale on Sunday. They need all the league wins they can get. Their nonconference schedule has next to nothing in it, other than losses to very good (and a couple of OK) teams and their nine conference wins are not overly impressive (sweeps of Maryland, BC and Virginia, and single wins over FSU, Ga. Tech and Wake). The RPI remains questionable, too, but Va. Tech is the rare team right now that is playing its way into contention.

Should be in:

Pittsburgh [27-4 (15-4), RPI: 2, SOS: 8] That wasn't a great effort in Morgantown, but the Panthers are still all but set. They can close up business by handling DePaul at home this weekend. The marquee win over Duke still looks nice, and nonconference wins over Washington and Oklahoma State aren't bad, either.

Work left to do:

Syracuse [25-9 (14-8), RPI: 12, SOS: 7] The Orange gave away a game to Pitt on Saturday and now are in very serious bubble trouble. It seems the Orange really need four straight wins now (at Seton Hall, vs. Marquette and then into the Big East semis) to have a legit chance. In nonconference play, their wins over Saint Joseph's at home and at Virginia are the best on an OK slate, and neither are helping all that much right now. Home losses to UMass and Rhode Island are no disgrace, but they certainly don't help, either.

Villanova [26-7 (14-6), RPI: 13, SOS: 30] The Cats need to handle South Florida and a trip to Provy in their last two to ensure at least a 9-9 mark heading into the Big East tournament. If they are close, will there be any weight given to the questionable last-second foul calls against NC State and Georgetown that helped decide those games? Nova's best nonconference win was over George Mason and the Wildcats were routed by bubble and city rival Saint Joseph's earlier in February.

West Virginia [23-11 (12-9), RPI: 21, SOS: 14] The Mountaineers got a very critical home win against Pitt to improve their position. That gives them another win over a team in the top half of the league. The Mountaineers really have to take advantage of a finale at St. John's and get to 11-7. That would be a strong statement in a very solid league, even with the softness of the majority of the wins. The best thing WVU did in nonconference play was probably the two-point loss to Tennessee. The RPI has improved into reasonable range for an at-large.

Seton Hall [16-15 (8-12), RPI: 101, SOS: 66] Losing at St. John's on Saturday was crushing and more or less makes Wednesday's game against Syracuse a virtual elimination game for the loser. Seton Hall probably needs four or five straight wins to have a legit chance. As with Syracuse, the Pirates best nonconference win was over Virginia, although they won that one on a neutral court at the Palestra in Philly.

Work left to do:

Ohio State [22-10 (12-9), RPI: 32, SOS: 29] Finally, the Buckeyes made a positive statement, fighting off Purdue in overtime to get a top-shelf win in league play. Now they probably need to beat Michigan State twice in a row -- in the season finale and then in the Big Ten quarters, assuming they can finish in fifth place. The Bucks remain just 1-9 against the RPI Top 50. Wins over Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and over Florida in Columbus were the nonconference bright spots, but both continue to lose oomph. OSU also lost to Tennessee, Texas A&M, North Carolina and Butler.

Work left to do:

Oklahoma [27-5 (13-4), RPI: 5, SOS: 25] What else is new? The Sooners need to overcome an injury, this time to Blake Griffin -- again. He'll miss the last two games of the regular season (at least). The Sooners get to take on in-state rival Oklahoma State and then host Missouri. Just staying at .500 would leave them in decent position, given how solid their computer numbers are. For tiebreaker purposes, remember that Oklahoma swept Baylor, which may be No. 3 in the league pecking order at the moment. OU had a three-game skid last month that came when Longar Longar was out, so they should get some consideration there. As far as nonconference play, the Sooners beat Gonzaga and West Virginia on neutral floors while they endured early losses to Memphis, USC and Stephen F. Austin.

Oklahoma State [22-11 (11-8), RPI: 19, SOS: 4] The Cowboys catch a break Wednesday by getting the Sooners without Blake Griffin. If they can cash that in, it would be six straight wins heading into the season finale at Texas, where they could notch a huge road win to go with the shocker over Kansas in Stillwater. The pounding of Washington is the best result in a less-than-great nonconference run that includes losses to Marquette, Pitt, Oral Roberts, Illinois and North Texas.

Texas A&M [22-9 (9-8), RPI: 36, SOS: 51] The 64-37 loss at Oklahoma was utterly horrendous and included what's believed to be a Division I shot clock-era record by going 16:12 without a point. A&M now has four losses in five games and heads to Baylor on Wednesday before closing at home with Kansas. It's not certain that A&M can overcome a 7-9 league mark, so the Aggies really need to get at least one of these next two. Their best nonconference win, over Ohio State, is losing steam. The other wins -- over UTEP, Washington, Alabama and LSU -- were decent but not great. Having blown a big lead to lose at Arizona might prove costly. They do have a big win in league play over Texas.

Baylor [19-14 (8-12), RPI: 55, SOS: 10] The Bears can really help themselves by beating Texas A&M on Wednesday. That would give them a sweep of the reeling Aggies and at least nine conference wins, which would leave them in pretty solid shape heading into the season finale at Texas Tech. In nonconference play, Baylor beat Notre Dame and Winthrop on its way to the Paradise Jam title in the Virgin Islands, and it also won at South Carolina. The Bears' nonconference losses were by three to Washington State at home and to Arkansas in Dallas.

Kansas State [20-11 (9-8), RPI: 81, SOS: 112] K-State got past Colorado on Tuesday night to get one of the two it needs to close out the regular season. That halts a skid during which the Cats had lost five of six. Now they need to take care of business at Iowa State to feel good about their position entering the Big 12 tourney. A 10-6 mark might be good enough to get a first-round bye. K-State might need to win its quarterfinal game, which would be against one of the other bubblers. Having a win over Kansas never hurts, but a win over Cal is the best thing on a nonconference résumé that includes losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier.

Texas Tech [13-19 (4-14), RPI: 119, SOS: 13] Yes, the profile seems to indicate they have a chance, but how do you take the Red Raiders seriously after their second 40-plus point thrashing in three games (sandwiched around a win over Texas)? They host Baylor in their finale with a chance to get back to .500, but will need to do some damage in the Big 12 tourney to have a real shot. Texas Tech beat Gonzaga in nonconference play (in Alaska) but also lost at Sam Houston State and Centenary.

Should be in:

USC [21-12 (12-9), RPI: 38, SOS: 18] The Trojans could more or less have locked things up had they taken care of Arizona State on Saturday, but getting a split of the trip may very well be enough. They close at home against the Bay Area schools and probably only need one win there to feel very good about their chances. In nonconference play, USC beat Oklahoma, Miami (Ohio) and Southern Illinois for its best wins. The season-opening loss to Mercer at home hurts some, and the Trojans just missed on big-name chances against Kansas and Memphis with two four-point losses.

Arizona [19-13 (9-10), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] The Wildcats are 10-10 against the RPI Top 100, which is a ton more than most teams on the bubble have done. So the Cats appear safe for now, even with the 7-9 league mark. If they somehow lose at Oregon State on Thursday, though, all bets are off. Assuming they beat the Beavers (twice, maybe, if they end up in the 7-10 game in the Pac-10 tourney), they probably will be fine, even at 8-10. It looks unseemly, but that's the benefit you get from loading up in nonconference play. They also should get some consideration for injuries to Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise. Their best nonconference win looked like it was over Texas A&M, but that is looking dicier by the day. It might be better to focus on the road wins at UNLV and Houston.

Work left to do:

Arizona State [24-9 (13-8), RPI: 31, SOS: 40] The Sun Devils came up huge in the second half Saturday, hanging a 55-spot on USC to grab a very, very crucial home win. The RPI/SOS combo suggests that the Sun Devils might need to get both this week in Oregon, and they get first shot at extinguishing the Ducks' at-large hopes Thursday night. ASU's rout of Xavier is a very good chip, but it's the only game from their nonconference run that will help.

Oregon [8-23 (2-17), RPI: 180, SOS: 12] The Ducks got the first of the four straight games (assuming they're not in the 7-10 game in the Pac-10 tourney) they needed to make the NCAAs by taking down in-state rival Oregon State. Now they get the Arizona schools at home in a pair of games dripping with bubble implications. The Ducks remain 1-7 against the top four teams in the league, which isn't a great indicator of any upside. Kansas State and Utah were their best nonconference wins, but the Ducks also lost at Saint Mary's, Nebraska and Oakland.

Work left to do:

Florida [23-10 (10-8), RPI: 53, SOS: 96] Well, the Gators have their chance, hosting Tennessee and then visiting Rupp on Sunday. We'll see what the Kiddie Gators can do. Florida's best nonconference win was over Temple, which more or less tells you all you need to know about that part of its schedule. With the SOS really weighing on the RPI, it could take 10 SEC wins or a deep conference tourney run for this club.

Kentucky [20-13 (9-9), RPI: 79, SOS: 61] Kentucky got what might have been a "good" loss Sunday, falling by three in Knoxville but showing the committee that the Cats could still be very feisty without Patrick Patterson. If they can keep playing like that, it will help validate everything they have done in SEC play. They still very well could handle a trip to South Carolina and a home game with Florida and get to 12-4, which would make things extremely interesting. It's amazing we're even talking about this after a bad nonconference slate that included crippling home losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego, but it's very reasonable at this point. Depending on the way the final standings come out, you could be looking at a Kentucky-Ole Miss quarterfinal, which could be an enormous game for both teams.

Mississippi [16-15 (7-10), RPI: 82, SOS: 20] As mentioned on Saturday, this team could be one to watch for. The Rebels got their second critical win in a row, this one over Arkansas, to stay in the mix. If they can win at Georgia, they'll get to 7-9 (same as Arkansas last season) and likely would finish third in the SEC West, which would allow them to avoid Tennessee until the SEC tourney finals. If Kentucky finishes second in the East, all the better. They can take out a bubble rival that is shorthanded. They are now 6-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a lot better than most bubble candidates (or anyone else). A win over Clemson in Puerto Rico was the out-of-league highlight, but their victory over South Alabama was quality, too.

Arkansas [14-16 (2-15), RPI: 148, SOS: 65] The Hogs fell at Ole Miss on Tuesday night and continue to hobble toward the finish line with five losses in their past seven games. Yes, beating Vandy was big, but not big enough to overlook a fairly unimpressive profile. The Hogs' nonconference win over Baylor still looks good. Victories over VCU and Missouri are decent, too. Losses to Providence and Appalachian State (the latter in Little Rock) are less so.

Work left to do:

Dayton [26-7 (12-6), RPI: 27, SOS: 88] You have to walk before you can fly, even if you are the Flyers. Dayton took the first step needed by staving off Fordham. They need to win at St. Bonaventure and then at home against Saint Joe's to get back to .500 and have a chance entering the A-10 tourney. Dayton has two outstanding nonconference wins -- at Louisville and versus Pitt -- which others in their position don't, and several other solid nonleague wins. If Chris Wright can make it back and the Flyers look good with him, they could get some consideration there, too.

Temple [22-11 (14-5), RPI: 30, SOS: 34] The Owls may have crushed Saint Joseph's hopes on Sunday with a one-point road win, and now they have second place to themselves. They also look like they will get Duquesne without Shawn James, which is a huge break. It would take something like running the table to the league final, but stranger things have happened and the Owls have a decent chance to finish 11-5 and in sole possession of second place. Their nonconference schedule is littered with seven losses, which could be too many to make up barring a huge late run.

Rhode Island [22-10 (11-6), RPI: 68, SOS: 134] The win at La Salle on Saturday was fine, but there's a ton of work left for the Rams to make up for the four-game skid that preceded it. URI probably needs to win out until the conference title game to have a legit at-large chance. A nonconference road win over Syracuse, which might not make the NCAAs, had been the best the Rams could offer in that category, but it now may be their neutral-court win over UAB.

Saint Joseph's [17-15 (10-8), RPI: 105, SOS: 86] Make it two unexpected home losses in a row for the Hawks, who now are in very serious bubble trouble. The last two are home to Xavier and at Dayton, neither of which is easy in the slightest. The season sweep of UMass could still be a chip, but the Minutemen are clearly ahead of Saint Joe's now. Saint Joe's has a really tough collection of nonleague losses. Two were in overtime (Gonzaga, at Creighton), and two were close defeats (at Syracuse, Holy Cross). One problem -- only the Zags look like they will be an NCAA team from that group. A 10-6 league mark should put them in pretty good shape, even though the RPI is a little lower than you'd like.

Massachusetts [11-18 (7-10), RPI: 151, SOS: 50] The Minutemen continued down the path to an at-large, taking out Richmond on Saturday. That's now four wins in a row for a team that has a very solid mark against the RPI Top 50. UMass' last two (La Salle, at GW) are fairly soft for this league, even though neither is a gimme. UMass was swept by Saint Joseph's and lost to Xavier, but swept Rhode Island and beat Dayton and Charlotte in its only meetings with those teams. Like Rhode Island, it beat Syracuse. The Minutemen also beat BC and Houston in nonconference play.

Should be in:

Saint Mary's [24-6 (11-5), RPI: 48, SOS: 158] The Gaels closed out the regular season with a win and likely are in the dance at this point. It would be nice to see them get past San Diego (ostensibly) in the WCC semis, but the overall profile screams at-large bid. Their solid nonconference slate includes victims like Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego State and Ohio.

UNLV [21-10 (9-8), RPI: 67, SOS: 90] The Rebels couldn't get it done at The Pit on Tuesday and now not only have lost touch with BYU, but brought the Lobos right into the at-large mix. The computer numbers look quite good, but if UNLV needs a safety net, the Rebels also get the conference tourney on their home court. Their three-point loss to Arizona at home was a big missed opportunity in nonconference play. They also lost to Louisville by 20 and don't have a really good nonconference win, so league positioning and overall record will be important.

Kent State [18-14 (11-7), RPI: 137, SOS: 161] The Golden Flashes got back on track, slogging past Miami (Ohio) to lock up a share of the MAC East crown and the No. 1 seed in the conference tourney. Now, if the Golden Flashes can win at Akron, they'll be all but in. If they lose that game, they'll end up in a tie for first in the division, which would make a loss in the conference tourney a lot more worrisome. Wins over Illinois State and George Mason out of conference could come in handy.

South Alabama [19-13 (13-9), RPI: 145, SOS: 218] The Jags locked up a share of the Sun Belt crown and the No. 1 seed in the conference tourney, so they remain in very solid shape for an at-large. A finals appearance in the Sun Belt tourney might be enough, even though they are playing the event at home. South Alabama's three nonconference losses were at Ole Miss by three, at Vandy by three in double overtime and by five to Miami (Ohio) in Anaheim. Its best nonleague win was at home over Mississippi State.

Work left to do:

Creighton [26-7 (15-5), RPI: 40, SOS: 111] The Bluejays won the Valley game of the year Saturday night, edging Bradley 111-110 in double overtime. The best part? Those two teams now meet again in the 4-5 game in the Valley quarters. Fun! Would a trip to the league title game, including a win over Drake in the semis, be enough? Chances are it wouldn't after the loss midweek at Illinois State, but it's not impossible. They have an OK nonconference slate, in which they beat Nebraska and (more importantly, for bubble purposes) Saint Joseph's. They also won at Oral Roberts in BracketBusters.

Western Kentucky [23-8 (18-3), RPI: 43, SOS: 117] WKU finished tied with South Alabama atop the Sun Belt, so that's one thing in their favor. Can they make the NCAAs while losing three times to the Jags? It seems unlikely, even with the big win total. Their best nonconference win was over Nebraska. The Toppers did come close against Gonzaga and Tennessee, but no cigar.

UAB [22-11 (12-6), RPI: 46, SOS: 71] The Blazers won at UTEP and crushed Tulane to stay on track for the 2-seed in C-USA. They are definitely ahead of Houston now that the Cougars lost at East Carolina, but with the teams possibly meeting in the C-USA semis, the Blazers probably have to beat them again to maintain their at-large hopes. UAB closes the regular season at Memphis, and if they can get one win over the Tigers, that would get them the auto bid and give them the marquee win they currently lack. The Blazers beat Cincinnati and Kentucky for their best nonconference wins.

Illinois State [24-9 (13-8), RPI: 47, SOS: 101] The Redbirds got a huge win at Southern Illinois on Saturday night and now may be two MVC wins away from an at-large. Illinois State's best nonconference win was over Cincinnati, so there's not much out of MVC play that will help. That said, finishing second by multiple games in a top-10 league is a pretty solid statement, and the RPI is in pretty good shape.

Virginia Commonwealth [24-9 (17-4), RPI: 50, SOS: 105] The Rams closed out the season in style, winning eight of their last nine to take the CAA by three games over George Mason and UNC-Wilmington. They beat Akron, Houston and Maryland in nonconference play, so there's some good stuff there, too. The committee seems to value conference regular-season championships, especially by multiple games in good leagues, so this bodes well for VCU's ability to overcome a conference tourney loss.

New Mexico [21-11 (12-5), RPI: 66, SOS: 87] The Lobos got a huge home win over UNLV on Tuesday night to keep their hopes alive. Their profile doesn't really look much different from Texas A&M's at this point, so the Lobos have a pretty legit chance to make it. One complicating factor -- they might have to beat UNLV on the road in the conference tourney semis to get there. There is not much in their nonconference profile that will help. You can see that just by looking at the SOS.

Davidson [25-7 (19-3), RPI: 69, SOS: 165] The Wildcats ran the table in the SoCon and remain in the at-large mix. They tip off their conference tournament on Saturday. If they lose in the SoCon final, would they be one of the 34 "best" teams available? Probably. Would they have one of the 34 best profiles? Probably not. The Wildcats showed in close early losses to North Carolina, Duke, NC State and UCLA how good they are, but can a SoCon team really overcome a 2-6 record in D-I nonconference games? For the Wildcats' sake, let's hope they don't want to have to find out.

Stephen F. Austin [20-7 (16-3), RPI: 74, SOS: 231] The Jacks lost their third Southland conference game on Saturday and pretty much need the auto bid now. They have four non-DI wins as part of their profile, and they are not even leading the Southland.

Houston [21-11 (12-7), RPI: 86, SOS: 152] Ugh. Losing by one at East Carolina may be the loss that cripples Houston's at-large hopes. The Cougars really needed to run the table to avoid a "bad loss" if they wanted the committee to give them credit for all of their "good" ones. First things first: Houston needs to beat UCF at home Thursday to stay out of Memphis' half of the tourney bracket. That would also set up a rematch with UAB, which Houston clearly would have to win. Its nonconference losses were to VCU, UMass and Arizona, so there's no shame in any of those.

Oral Roberts [15-15 (14-5), RPI: 143, SOS: 150] If the last-second BracketBusters home loss to Creighton didn't end this debate, the season-ending loss at North Dakota State did. The Golden Eagles still don't have a top-50 win and now they have two league losses. ORU beat Oklahoma State, but whiffed on every other big chance in nonconference play (losses to Texas A&M, Arkansas and Texas).

Southern Illinois [12-18 (8-11), RPI: 146, SOS: 67] The Salukis suffered a crushing home loss Saturday to second-place Illinois State and now very well might have to win the auto bid to get into the NCAAs. The good news is that SIU still finished third, which means they can get another crack at the Redbirds in the tourney semis. But Ill. State already swept them this season and finished two games ahead in the standings. That will be hard for the committee to overlook. In nonconference play, they beat Mississippi State, Saint Mary's and Western Kentucky, so there is some good stuff in their profile, which also includes losses to USC, Indiana, Charlotte, Saint Louis, Western Michigan and Butler.