Should be in:

Miami (FL) [17-12 (7-10), RPI: 65, SOS: 35] Miami definitely benefits from Maryland's and Virginia Tech's pratfalls, as it continues to look like team No. 4 from the ACC. While the overtime loss at Florida State on Saturday was disappointing, the Canes still look to be in pretty good shape. If they can avoid a loss in their first ACC tourney game, they should land safely into the field. Miami had a few credible wins in nonconference play, including victories over Mississippi State and VCU, which is more than a number of other bubble teams have to offer. The Canes' .500 record in ACC play should be enough, barring unforeseen developments, but they would be wise to take care of Virginia Tech in the ACC quarters.

Work left to do:

Florida State [25-9 (12-7), RPI: 15, SOS: 19] If Maryland's still here, we definitely need to add Florida State for now. The Noles' profile could be better than the Terps' heading into the ACC tournament. Think they'd like those early games against Cleveland State and South Florida back? It's not likely that the Noles can get into the at-large picture, but it's not impossible with a deep ACC run.

Maryland [20-13 (9-10), RPI: 54, SOS: 23] The Terps' at-large hopes are now on life support after they were handled at league minnow Virginia on Sunday. It now may very well take a trip to the ACC final (and possibly help elsewhere, too) for at-large consideration. Maryland was swept by Virginia Tech, lost to Miami and also lost to VCU, which now is in trouble after the Rams dropped into the at-large pool Sunday. Maryland gets BC in the opening round of the ACC tourney and then would draw Clemson in a revenge game.

Virginia Tech [18-14 (8-10), RPI: 61, SOS: 24] The Hokies suffered a brutal one-point loss at Clemson in which the Tigers actually made clutch free throws. A win Sunday really, really would have enhanced Va. Tech's at-large hopes. Now the Hokies likely need multiple wins in the ACC tournament because of a fairly soft profile, even at 9-7 in the ACC. Their nonconference schedule has next to nothing in it, other than losses to very good (and a couple of OK) teams, and their nine conference wins are not overly impressive (sweeps of Maryland, BC and Virginia, and single wins over FSU, Ga. Tech and Wake). The RPI is very questionable, too. The work starts in the quarterfinals with a likely meeting with fellow bubbler Miami. After that, it's probably a date with North Carolina.

Work left to do:

Syracuse [25-9 (14-8), RPI: 12, SOS: 7] There's no real way for the Orange to get an at-large after losing their Big East tournament opener to Villanova, especially the way it went down. The Orange look headed to the NIT for the second straight season and, unlike last year, there won't be much debate about this one.

Villanova [26-7 (14-6), RPI: 13, SOS: 30] The Wildcats recovered from an early hole to rout Syracuse in the 8-9 game of the Big East tournament. Many Nova fans think the Cats have done enough, but this watch doesn't agree. A win over Georgetown on Friday would be a critical piece to the Cats' at-large puzzle. Will any weight be given to the questionable last-second foul calls against NC State and Georgetown that helped decide those games? Nova's nonconference strength of schedule is a problem. The Cats' best nonconference win was over George Mason, and they were routed by city rival and bubble rival Saint Joseph's.

Work left to do:

Ohio State [22-10 (12-9), RPI: 32, SOS: 29] Two down, one to go for the Buckeyes, who followed up their win over Purdue by beating Michigan State on Sunday. Next up is a rematch in the Big Ten quarterfinals, which if the Buckeyes win, they could find their way into the Dance. The Buckeyes' RPI Top 50 record is still very suspect, but the committee would look favorably on a team that won three straight games against ranked opponents down the stretch. Nonconference wins over Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and against Florida were the bright spots, but both of those teams may miss the dance. OSU also lost to Tennessee, Texas A&M, North Carolina and Butler.

Should be in:

Baylor [19-14 (8-12), RPI: 55, SOS: 10] The Bears got a very big road win at Texas Tech on Saturday after missing out on a chance to hurt Texas A&M midweek. The Bears will play the last-place team in the opening round of the conference tourney, then would get a crack at Oklahoma in the quarters. They probably can survive a loss there, but we'll see. In nonconference play, Baylor beat Notre Dame and Winthrop on its way to the Paradise Jam title in the Virgin Islands, and it also won at South Carolina. The Bears' nonconference losses were by three points to Washington State at home and to Arkansas in Dallas.

Kansas State [20-11 (9-8), RPI: 81, SOS: 112] K-State slipped past Iowa State to get to 10-6 in the league and clinch third place. The unbalanced league schedule makes that finish a bit less definitive, but it's still a very nice chip for the Wildcats. K-State would do well to win its quarterfinal game against fellow bubbler Texas A&M. Having a win over Kansas never hurts, but a win over Cal is the best thing on a nonconference résumé that includes losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier.

Work left to do:

Texas A&M [22-9 (9-8), RPI: 36, SOS: 51] The Aggies' inconsistency has been staggering. Though Kansas routed them to close the regular season, winning in Waco might be a season-saver -- but they very well might have to win their quarterfinal game against No. 3 Kansas State. The Aggies have a win over Texas in league play, but their best nonconference win, over Ohio State, might supplant the victory over the state rival. The other wins -- over UTEP, Washington, Alabama and LSU -- were decent but not great.

Work left to do:

Arizona State [24-9 (13-8), RPI: 31, SOS: 40] The Sun Devils missed a chance to KO Oregon, but got the back end of the trip against the bottom-feeding Beavers to finish at .500 in league play. They have amassed several very good wins over Xavier, Stanford and USC; they also swept Arizona. But the RPI/SOS combo suggests that the Sun Devils need a quarterfinal win over USC in the Pac-10 tourney to feel good about their chances.

Arizona [19-13 (9-10), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] Predictably, Arizona destroyed Oregon State in the 7-10 game in the Pac-10 tourney, but that win does nothing to help soothe the Wildcats' 3-7 stretch run and 8-10 league mark. Now they get a shot at Stanford and can do wonders to quiet the talk about missing the NCAAs with a win there. The Cats are currently 0-6 against the RPI Top 25, but were 10-5 against the rest of the Top 100, which is a huge number of games -- and wins -- in that category. The Wildcats should get some consideration for injuries, especially since they went 1-3 without Jerryd Bayless, their best player. Arizona's best nonconference wins are over Texas A&M and at UNLV and Houston.

Oregon [8-23 (2-17), RPI: 180, SOS: 12] The Ducks did what they needed to do, sweeping the Arizona schools to get to .500 in the league and finish ahead of Arizona after sweeping the Wildcats. The Ducks remain 1-7 against the top four teams in the league, which isn't a great indicator of any upside, but the profile is improving. They will get another chance at an "up" win in league play against Washington State in the Pac-10 quarters and must win that game. Kansas State and Utah were their best nonconference wins, but the Ducks also lost at Saint Mary's, Nebraska and Oakland.

Work left to do:

Florida [23-10 (10-8), RPI: 53, SOS: 96] Florida couldn't complete a big rally against Kentucky on Sunday, and now very well might have to win the SEC tournament to get into the NCAAs. Florida's best nonconference win is over surging Temple, and there's very little anywhere in the Gators' profile that says this should be an NCAA team at this point.

Kentucky [20-13 (9-9), RPI: 79, SOS: 61] Kentucky got past Florida at home on Sunday and now looks to be in very good shape to make the NCAAs. If they can beat Ole Miss in the SEC quarters, the Cats look like they'll be dancing. That would be an incredible recovery from their early-season injuries, performance woes and late loss of Patrick Patterson for the season.

Mississippi [16-15 (7-10), RPI: 82, SOS: 20] This year's Arkansas is still alive; the Rebels won their last three games to get to 7-9 and set themselves up for an SEC quarterfinal throwdown against Kentucky, a game that will be huge for bubble implications. Finishing third in the SEC West also means the team will avoid Tennessee until the final. The Rebels did some decent work in nonconference play and are 5-4 against the RPI Top 50, which is a lot better than most bubble candidates. A win over ACC lock Clemson in Puerto Rico was the out-of-league highlight, but their victory over Sun Belt co-champ South Alabama was quality, too.

Arkansas [14-16 (2-15), RPI: 148, SOS: 65] The Hogs closed out with a win over Auburn to stay above .500 in league play, but can't feel completely comfortable at this point. The Hogs beat Vandy in league play and now should get another crack at the Dores in the SEC quarters. Their nonconference win over Baylor still looks good. The win over VCU is decent, too. They are 5-4 against the RPI Top 50, which is solid.

Work left to do:

Dayton [26-7 (12-6), RPI: 27, SOS: 88] Dayton won its fourth straight game, but it was anything but easy as Saint Louis fell by a point in overtime. A win's a win, though, at this point and now the Flyers get a shot at Xavier in the quarterfinals. If they win that game, their profile will need a long look despite an injury-marred 8-8 league season that tied them for seventh in the A-10. Dayton has two outstanding nonconference wins -- at Louisville and versus Pitt -- which others in their position don't, and several other solid nonleague wins which gives them very solid RPI, SOS and Top 100 marks. If Chris Wright can make it back and the Flyers look good with him, all the better, as that would validate the early-season run.

Temple [22-11 (14-5), RPI: 30, SOS: 34] The Owls locked up second place in the league, which has to mean something, regardless of unbalanced schedules. The early nonconference losses put them behind the eight ball, and not much in nonleague play can help them. Still, they beat Xavier, have a bunch of road wins and are on a big roll entering the league tourney. They have a favorable first game vs. La Salle and then would get UMass or Charlotte next.

Saint Joseph's [17-15 (10-8), RPI: 105, SOS: 86] Saint Joseph's routed Fordham in the first round of the A-10 tourney and now gets Richmond in the quarterfinals. If they handle that, they very well could see Xavier in the semis. The Hawks' tough collection of nonleague losses doesn't help their profile. Two were in overtime (Gonzaga, at Creighton), and two were close defeats (at Syracuse, Holy Cross). One problem: From that group, only the Zags will be an NCAA team.

Massachusetts [11-18 (7-10), RPI: 151, SOS: 50] The Minutemen slipped past shorthanded GW and won their last six games in league play to make it to 10-6. They clearly are the No. 2 team in the league pecking order right now but don't have an easy first A-10 tourney game against Charlotte. Losing that game might be a crushing blow. UMass was swept by Saint Joseph's and lost to Xavier, but swept Rhode Island and beat Dayton and Charlotte in its only meetings with those teams. Like Rhode Island, it beat Syracuse. The Minutemen also beat Houston in nonconference play.

Should be in:

Saint Mary's [24-6 (11-5), RPI: 48, SOS: 158] The Gaels let their WCC semifinal at San Diego get away, blowing a late 13-point lead and losing in double-OT. Can their profile survive it? It looks pretty good that they can. SMC should be in better position than a team like Illinois State. At least the Gaels have something in their nonconference profile to fall back on. The best wins are over Drake and Oregon at home, but they also picked up OK wins over Seton Hall, San Diego State and Ohio. They also don't have a really bad loss, which helps. Besides two at San Diego and one at Gonzaga, the Gaels lost at Southern Illinois and Texas and at home to Kent State in BracketBusters.

UNLV [21-10 (9-8), RPI: 67, SOS: 90] The Rebels held on to second place in the league, which could be very important. They get the conference tourney on their home court, which is good and bad. It will be easier to win, but a loss would be more damaging. Their three-point loss to Arizona at home was a big missed opportunity in nonconference play. They also lost to Louisville by 20 and don't have a really good nonconference win, so league positioning and overall record will be important chips.

Kent State [18-14 (11-7), RPI: 137, SOS: 161] The Golden Flashes ambushed Akron early and then held on for the win that most likely puts them into the field of 65. It would be wise to avoid a flameout in the MAC quarters. Anything beyond that should be good enough. A win over Illinois State out of conference could come in handy, especially after the Redbirds' MVC final fiasco.

South Alabama [19-13 (13-9), RPI: 145, SOS: 218] After escaping in the Sun Belt quarters, South Alabama wasn't as lucky Monday night when it was ambushed at home by Middle Tennessee State. That's not a good loss, but the Jaguars very well should be able to overcome it. South Alabama's three nonconference losses were at Ole Miss by three, at Vandy by three in double overtime and by five to Miami (Ohio) in Anaheim. Its best nonleague win was at home over Mississippi State. What it means for the bubble is that another at-large bid may have vanished as two could go from the Sun Belt.

Work left to do:

UAB [22-11 (12-6), RPI: 46, SOS: 71] The Blazers were shredded at Memphis on Saturday -- not exactly the statement they were looking to make. They still finished second in the conference and are on track to meet Houston in an elimination game in the league semis. The Blazers beat Kentucky for their best nonconference win.

Illinois State [24-9 (13-8), RPI: 47, SOS: 101] The disaster the Redbirds wanted to avoid occurred in the form of a 30-point beatdown by Drake in the nationally televised Valley final. Sure, it only counts as one loss to an elite team, but sometimes perception matters, too, and that was not a good last statement for Illinois State to make. The computer numbers look decent, but there's not a ton of heft in the actual profile. Their best nonconference win was over Cincinnati. Finishing second by multiple games in a top-10 league and getting to that conference's final is a pretty solid statement, though. It will be a long week for Illinois State, but the Birds still have a pretty decent chance.

Virginia Commonwealth [24-9 (17-4), RPI: 50, SOS: 105] Uh oh. The Rams were beaten in the final seconds by William & Mary in the CAA semis and now will have a very, very long week to wait. They closed out the regular season in style, winning eight of their last nine to take the CAA by three games over George Mason and UNC-Wilmington. VCU beat Akron, Houston and Maryland in nonconference play, so there's some good stuff there, too. The committee seems to value conference regular-season championships, especially by multiple games in good leagues, so this bodes well, too. It also can't hurt to have George Mason AD Tom O'Connor as the selection committee chair. He won't be in the room when VCU is discussed, but he certainly can make sure that the other committee members are well briefed on the Rams.

New Mexico [21-11 (12-5), RPI: 66, SOS: 87] The Lobos finished third in a conference that might get only two teams in. They might have to beat UNLV on the road in the conference tourney semis to be that team. Not much in their nonconference profile will help. You can see that just by looking at the SOS.

Houston [21-11 (12-7), RPI: 86, SOS: 152] A regular-season-ending loss to UTEP may well have condemned Houston to automatic bid-or-bust territory. The team is still in line to have a rematch with UAB in the league semis, but that might not be enough now. Houston's nonconference losses were to VCU, UMass and Arizona, so there's no shame in any of those. The Cougars also beat Kentucky.