Work left to do:

Florida State [17-6 (5-4), RPI: 37, SOS: 51] The Noles handled Wake Forest on Thursday and now get a primo shot at North Carolina. If FSU can beat the Tar Heels, the bubble wreckage around it provides an opportunity even though its overall profile is very lacking in some spots. They do have nine top-100 wins, but some questionable nonconference losses dampen that.

Maryland [15-6 (6-2), RPI: 44, SOS: 32] The Terps' collapse is complete after losing to BC in the ACC's first round. What a dramatic fade from how good they looked about six games ago.

Virginia Tech [18-4 (5-3), RPI: 63, SOS: 235] Virginia Tech didn't even play and was one of the big winners Thursday as bubble teams everywhere bit the dust. The Hokies still likely need multiple wins in the ACC tournament because of a fairly soft profile, even at 9-7 in the ACC, and that starts Friday against newly locked-up Miami. Their nonconference schedule has next to nothing in it, other than losses to very good (and a couple of OK) teams, and their nine conference wins are not overly impressive (sweeps of Maryland, BC and Virginia, and single wins over FSU, Ga. Tech and Wake). The RPI is very questionable, too.

Work left to do:

Syracuse [23-1 (10-1), RPI: 2, SOS: 15] There's no real way for the Orange to get an at-large after losing their Big East tournament opener to Villanova, especially the way it went down. The Orange look to be headed to the NIT for the second straight season and, unlike last year, there won't be much debate about this one.

Villanova [21-2 (10-1), RPI: 3, SOS: 34] The Wildcats were eventually buried under an avalanche of Georgetown 3s, and their at-large hopes may have been buried with them. We'll need to take one more thorough look at the Cats' profile relative to its bubble peers, but it feels thin at this point. Nova's nonconference strength of schedule is a problem. The Cats' best nonconference win was over George Mason, and they were routed by city rival and bubble rival Saint Joseph's.

Work left to do:

Ohio State [18-6 (8-3), RPI: 38, SOS: 94] The Buckeyes are another team that really benefited from what happened Thursday while they sat idle. Given all of the wreckage around the land, it may not be absolutely necessary at this point for OSU to beat Michigan State again, which is scary. The Buckeyes still would be very well-served to do it, as their top-50 record is still very suspect. Nonconference wins over Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and against Florida were the bright spots, but both of those teams will miss the Dance. OSU also lost to Tennessee, Texas A&M, North Carolina and Butler.

Should be in:

Kansas State [18-4 (6-3), RPI: 8, SOS: 3] K-State slipped past Iowa State to get to 10-6 in the league and clinch third place. The unbalanced league schedule makes that finish a bit less definitive, but it's still a very nice chip for the Wildcats. K-State would do well to win its quarterfinal game against fellow bubbler Texas A&M. Having a win over Kansas never hurts, but a win over Cal is the best thing on a nonconference résumé that includes losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier.

Baylor [16-5 (4-4), RPI: 28, SOS: 28] Oy. The Bears' profile looked good enough to absorb an early loss in the Big 12 tourney, but losing to 12-seed Colorado is awfully early and awfully bad. The Bears still look in relatively good shape to get in, but that was a major misstep. In nonconference play, Baylor beat Notre Dame and Winthrop on its way to the Paradise Jam title in the Virgin Islands, and it also won at South Carolina. The Bears' nonconference losses were by three points to Washington State at home and to Arkansas in Dallas.

Work left to do:

Texas A&M [16-6 (6-3), RPI: 20, SOS: 12] The Aggies did what they had to do to slog past Iowa State and earn a matchup with Kansas State. The more important question is if A&M will be healthy, as several of their players took ill on Thursday. The Aggies' best nonconference win was over Ohio State, which suddenly looks a good deal better in relative terms. The other nonleague wins -- UTEP, Washington, Alabama and LSU -- were decent but not great. Knocking off Texas in league play surely helps, too.

Work left to do:

Arizona [12-11 (6-5), RPI: 69, SOS: 11] The "disaster" scenario has arrived as the Wildcats ended up 8-10 and lost in the quarterfinals to Stanford. The ridiculous thing is that it's still hard to find a way for the Cats to miss the NCAAs, given the entire landscape. Arizona would enter the tournament at 4-8 in its last 12, with two of those wins coming over Oregon State. The Cats also are now 0-7 against the RPI top 25, but are 10-5 against the rest of the top 100, which is a huge number of games -- and wins -- in that category. The Wildcats should get some consideration for injuries, especially since they went 1-3 without Jerryd Bayless, their best player. Arizona's best nonconference wins were over Texas A&M and at UNLV and Houston.

Arizona State [16-8 (6-5), RPI: 75, SOS: 82] The Sun Devils were the victims of the latest atrocious call in the final seconds of a Pac-10 game, with Jeff Pendergraph's game-tying dunk with under 20 seconds left waived off for a phantom over-the-back call. Even USC's Davon Jefferson said the call was terrible. Will it be the one that sends the Sun Devils to the NIT? It's hard to say for sure at this point with so many teams missing chances Thursday. They managed to finish at 9-9 in league play and have amassed very good wins over Xavier, Stanford and USC. They also swept Arizona but the RPI/SOS combo remains weak, in large part because of a mostly poor nonleague schedule. This might be one of those teams that ultimately gets a subjective test from the committee, and ASU looks like an NCAA team at this point.

Oregon [12-10 (4-6), RPI: 149, SOS: 116] The Ducks got into too deep a hole and couldn't shoot their way out against Washington State, losing to the Cougars for the third time this season. That drops Oregon to 1-8 against the four best teams in the Pac-10. As its only real good nonconference win is at Kansas State, the combination very well could place Oregon last in the Pac-10 pecking order, although Arizona State doesn't have a lot to crow about, either. If they end up behind the Sun Devils in the committee's mind, will being the seventh team from the league be enough to get in? It's not impossible, but Ducks fans shouldn't hold their breath in that case.

Should be in:

Kentucky [22-1 (7-1), RPI: 6, SOS: 77] Whether or not you believed that Kentucky needed to win its quarterfinal prior to Thursday, what went down around the country makes you wonder if even that is necessary. Yes, a loss to Georgia wouldn't be great, but almost everyone else lost, and the Cats appeared to be on the right side of the cut line before that. If they get in, it would be an incredible recovery from their early-season injuries, performance woes and the late loss of Patrick Patterson for the season. There are some ugly numbers in the profile -- namely no nonleague win in the top 250, no road win anywhere in the top 140, and 5-10 against the top 100 -- but the SEC surge when the roster got healthy definitely carries weight as the Cats are one of the few teams pushing their way in instead of out.

Arkansas [12-11 (5-3), RPI: 114, SOS: 22] The Hogs closed out with a win over Auburn to stay above .500 in league play, but can't feel completely comfortable at this point. The Hogs beat Vandy in league play and now should get another crack at the Dores in the SEC quarters. Their nonconference win over Baylor still looks good. The win over VCU is decent, too. They are 5-4 against the RPI top 50, which is solid.

Work left to do:

Mississippi [17-6 (5-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 57] The Rebels committed an E-6 by losing to E6-seed Georgia, and essentially ended their hopes for an at-large. The Rebels did some decent work in nonconference play and are 5-4 against the RPI top 50, which is a lot better than most bubble candidates, but the SEC performance and this early exit likely are too much to overcome. A win over ACC-lock Clemson in Puerto Rico was the out-of-league highlight, but the victory over Sun Belt co-champ South Alabama was quality, too.

Work left to do:

Temple [19-5 (7-2), RPI: 17, SOS: 44] Quietly, the Owls keep winning, and if everyone else keeps losing, the door might open up for a miracle at-large berth. They ended up in second place in the No. 7 league, which has to mean something, regardless of unbalanced schedules. The early nonconference losses put them behind the eight ball, and not much in nonleague play can help them. Still, they beat Xavier, have a bunch of road wins and are on a big roll entering the league tourney. They also may have caught a break by getting Charlotte rather than UMass in the semifinals. Would the second-place conference finish and a finals berth be enough? The Owls might want to confer with Illinois State.

Dayton [16-6 (5-3), RPI: 34, SOS: 38] The Flyers fell shot against Xavier and now likely will miss the NCAAs. The overall profile looks very solid, but a lot of that was before Chris Wright got hurt. He never made it back, so the Flyers will have to be evaluated on how they looked without him, which wasn't nearly good enough. When healthy, Dayton had two outstanding nonconference wins -- at Louisville and vs. Pitt.

Saint Joseph's [9-14 (3-6), RPI: 170, SOS: 75] Saint Joseph's beat Richmond in the quarters and then got a huge break when UMass flopped against Charlotte. Now a rematch with Xavier, a team the Hawks just beat at home, is on tap. If they can get that one, have they done enough? Tough question at this point. The Hawks' collection of close nonleague losses doesn't really help their profile. Two were in overtime (Gonzaga, at Creighton), and two were close defeats (at Syracuse, Holy Cross). One problem: From that group, only the Zags will be an NCAA team.

Massachusetts [7-15 (2-7), RPI: 196, SOS: 72] Oh, boy. The Minutemen blew a 17-point halftime lead and lost their A-10 quarterfinal to Charlotte, which could be a devastating defeat. With Saint Joe's and Temple moving into the semifinals, UMass couldn't really afford to dump this game. Now the RPI/SOS combo is going to look very suspect, and it could end up looking up again at a Saint Joe's team that swept it during the regular season. In nonleague play, the best wins were at Syracuse and over Houston.

Should be in:

UNLV [18-4 (7-2), RPI: 31, SOS: 98] The Rebels escaped their MWC quarterfinal game with the help of a really questionable foul call late. No matter for them -- they're on to the semis and New Mexico isn't, which is great news. With bubble teams capitulating left and right, the Rebels probably could be in lock status at this point. One more win definitely would do it, but it might not even be needed at this point. UNLV held on to second place in the league, which could be very important. The Rebels get the conference tourney on their home court, which is good and bad. It will be easier to win, but a loss would be more damaging. Their three-point loss to Arizona at home was a big missed opportunity in nonconference play. They also lost to Louisville by 20 and don't have a really good nonconference win, so league positioning and overall record will be important chips.

South Alabama [11-12 (5-8), RPI: 227, SOS: 261] The Jaguars were one of the teams doing backflips Thursday, as oodles of bubble challengers choked on their chances to displace them. The semifinal loss to Middle Tennessee State was not a good one, but the Jaguars should be able to overcome it. South Alabama's three nonconference losses were at Ole Miss by three, at Vandy by three in double overtime and by five to Miami (Ohio) in Anaheim. Its best nonleague win was at home over Mississippi State.

Work left to do:

New Mexico [21-3 (7-2), RPI: 10, SOS: 52] The Lobos lost by two in overtime to Utah and also may have really compromised their at-large hopes as they don't get a chance to displace UNLV by winning at their gym. They finished third in a conference that now might only get two teams in. Not much in their nonconference profile will help. You can see that just by looking at the SOS.

UAB [19-4 (7-2), RPI: 29, SOS: 103] UAB crashed out against Tulsa in the C-USA quarterfinals and most likely destroyed its at-large hopes. The Blazers finished second in the conference and beat Kentucky for their best nonconference win, but that's probably not enough.

Virginia Commonwealth [17-5 (9-4), RPI: 49, SOS: 134] The Rams breathe new life after their profile was reinvigorated by Carnage Thursday. Now how much is the three-game margin for the CAA crown and wins over Maryland, Houston and at Akron worth? Maybe enough.

Illinois State [16-8 (7-6), RPI: 127, SOS: 227] Was Thursday the miracle day Redbirds fans were dreaming of? It couldn't have gone any better for a team that already had finished its schedule, and with so many teams blowing chances to pass ISU, the Redbirds' profile will get another strong look. The computer numbers look decent, but there's not a ton of heft in the actual games. Their best nonconference win was over Cincinnati. Finishing second by multiple games in a top-10 league and getting to that conference's final is a pretty solid statement, though.

Houston [10-11 (4-5), RPI: 158, SOS: 90] The Cougars' loss to UTEP in the C-USA quarters was the final death blow to their at-large hopes. There's not nearly enough quality in the profile to overcome the series of bad losses to close the season.