College Basketball Bubble Watch

MWC-leading Utah enters lock status

Editor's note: This file has been updated to include all games through Wednesday, Feb. 25.

The Utah Utes stunned the college football world last season, finishing 13-0 and beating Alabama 31-17 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

Might the Utes be poised to do the same in college basketball?

Utah became the fifth team from a so-called "non-BCS" conference to lock up an NCAA tournament at-large bid. That running total would have been six teams, but Dayton fell back to "should be in" status after losing consecutive road games at Saint Louis and surging Rhode Island.

It's hard to believe a team that opened the 2008-09 season losing to a Division II opponent could be considered an NCAA lock with three regular-season games to play. But Utah's 80-79 loss to Southwest Baptist on Nov. 15 won't affect the Utes' gaudy computer numbers. In the RPI, Division I teams aren't rewarded for their victories over Division II opponents, and aren't penalized for losing to such foes, either.

Utah ranks in the top 10 in RPI ratings and its strength of schedule ranks in the top 20. The Utes have won eight games in a row, including victories over fellow Mountain West Conference bubble teams BYU, New Mexico, San Diego State and UNLV.

The rest of the NCAA tournament bubble remains as fluid as ever. Georgetown, Nebraska and Kansas State have been eliminated from consideration for now, but New Mexico and Rhode Island are back in the mix.

Here is this week's Bubble Watch:

Atlantic Coast Conference
Teams that should be in: Florida State
Work left to do: Miami (FL), Boston College, Virginia Tech, Maryland

The ACC race continues to tighten up, with four teams sitting within two games of leader North Carolina in the loss column of the league standings. The battle for what might be as many as three NCAA at-large spots also is hotly contested, with five teams trying to keep their NCAA hopes alive. Virginia Tech took a big step toward getting back into bubble contention by upsetting Clemson on the road Wednesday. Maryland lost at home to Duke, but the Terrapins still have momentum after upsetting the Tar Heels in overtime Saturday. Boston College beat FSU at home Tuesday night, which might go a long way toward getting the Eagles into the NCAA tournament.

Florida State [21-7 (8-5), RPI: 19, SOS: 27] The Seminoles lost at Boston College, 72-67, on Tuesday, which probably leaves them one victory away from locking up an NCAA at-large bid. Even if FSU lost its last three regular-season games -- at home against Clemson on Saturday, at Duke on March 3 and home against Virginia Tech on March 8 -- it would still finish 8-8 in ACC play. But with four other ACC schools on the bubble, FSU might need to finish with a winning record against league foes to feel confident. The Seminoles are 4-5 against RPI top-50 foes and 11-7 against the top 100. A 7-4 road record also will help, along with non-conference victories over California (neutral court) and Florida (home).


Miami (FL) [16-10 (5-8), RPI: 46, SOS: 9] The Hurricanes are back in the mix after beating Boston College 69-58 on Saturday, but they have absolutely no room for error. Miami's latest victory gave it a sweep of two games against the Eagles, which might be important on Selection Sunday. But the Hurricanes still sit at 5-8 in the ACC standings, so they probably need to win each of their last three-regular season games. The Hurricanes are only 5-7 in their last 12 games and 4-7 against RPI top-50 opponents. But the Hurricanes should be favored in their last three regular-season games: at Virginia on Thursday, at Georgia Tech on March 4 and home against NC State on March 7.

Boston College [20-9 (8-6), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] With their five-point victory over Florida State on Tuesday, the Eagles might have wrapped up an at-large bid, as long as they don't get swept by NC State (road) on March 4 and Georgia Tech (home) on March 7 in their final regular-season games. Boston College has beaten three of the ACC's top four teams, also defeating North Carolina, 85-78, on the road Jan. 4 and Duke, 80-74, at home Feb. 15. The Eagles defeated fellow ACC bubble teams FSU (home) and Maryland (road) and split games with Virginia Tech, but lost twice to Miami. Boston College didn't do much during nonconference play, beating UAB (neutral court) and losing to RPI No. 112 St. Louis (road) and No. 273 Harvard (home). But the Eagles probably have done more than enough during ACC play.

Virginia Tech [17-10 (7-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 39] Talk about bouncing back. After losing three games in a row to fall to the brink of at-large elimination, the Hokies won at Clemson 80-77 on Wednesday night. Virginia Tech improved to 7-6 in ACC play, and, just as importantly, won its third game against an RPI top-50 opponent. The Hokies will have opportunities for three more big victories -- they play home games against Duke on Saturday and North Carolina on March 4, before finishing the regular season at Florida State on March 8. Virginia Tech might need to win two of those games -- or win one and do some serious damage in the ACC Tournament -- to have a chance on Selection Sunday. Virginia Tech split games with fellow ACC bubble team Boston College and beat Miami but lost at Maryland. The Hokies' nonconference results could hurt them; their best win came against RPI No. 102 Fairfield, and their worst loss came at No. 201 Georgia.

Maryland [17-10 (6-7), RPI: 58, SOS: 26] The Terrapins couldn't sustain the momentum from their stunning overtime victory over North Carolina on Saturday, losing to Duke, 78-67, at home Wednesday. The loss dropped Maryland's record to 6-7 in ACC play, meaning it probably needs to win at least two of its last three regular-season games. It still has a chance to do it, with road games at NC State on Sunday and at Virginia on March 7. The Terps also play at home against Wake Forest on March 3. Maryland has two very good victories -- the upset of the Tar Heels and an 80-62 victory over Michigan State in Orlando on Nov. 27. But other than another home victory over Miami (Fla.), there isn't a lot else on Maryland's résumé. The Terps have home victories over Michigan and Virginia Tech, but they're only 1-5 in road games. All but one of their 10 losses came against teams ranked inside the RPI top 50, but the big blemish is a 66-65 home loss to Morgan State on Jan. 7.

Locks



Big East Conference
Teams that should be in: West Virginia, Syracuse
Work left to do: Cincinnati, Providence, Notre Dame

Pittsburgh started the week ranked No. 1 in the country, but was tied for third place in the Big East standings by Wednesday night. The four-team race for the Big East regular-season title figures to go down to the wire, as Pittsburgh, Louisville, Connecticut and Marquette continue to jockey for high NCAA tournament seeds. The race for the last few at-large bids also figures to be a fight until the end. Providence stunned Pitt on Tuesday night, but the Friars still have a long way to go in earning an at-large bid. Notre Dame is also back in the bubble discussion for at least another week, but Georgetown is finished after losing for the ninth time in 11 games.

West Virginia [19-8 (8-6), RPI: 15, SOS: 10] The Montaineers have some pretty gaudy computer numbers and likely will make the NCAA's 65-team field. But West Virginia probably needs at least one or two more regular-season victories, which would guarantee it having a winning record in Big East play. The Mountaineers have three victories over RPI top-50 opponents, but one of them came against slumping Georgetown. They routed Villanova at home Feb. 13 and won at Ohio State on Dec. 27. West Virginia also beat fellow Big East bubble teams Providence and Notre Dame. Six of its eight losses came against RPI top-30 opponents (the others were against Davidson and Kentucky on neutral courts). West Virginia plays at Cincinnati on Thursday night, and then at South Florida on March 1 and home against DePaul on March 4. Locking up an NCAA at-large bid isn't too far away.

Syracuse [20-8 (8-7), RPI: 22, SOS: 15] The Orange blasted St. John's, 87-58, on the road Tuesday, improving their record to 8-7 in Big East play. Syracuse has done more than enough to lock up an NCAA at-large bid, but it still might need one or two regular-season victories because of its recent slide (losing six of nine games). Syracuse has five victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Kansas (neutral court), Memphis (road), West Virginia (home), Florida (neutral court) and Georgetown (home). Syracuse is 5-6 against RPI top-50 foes and 7-8 against the top 100. As long as it takes care of business in its next two games, home against Cincinnati on Sunday and Rutgers on March 3, Syracuse will lock up an at-large bid.


Cincinnati [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 56, SOS: 23] To have any chance of landing an at-large bid, the Bearcats probably have to win each of their next two games: home against West Virginia on Thursday and at Syracuse on Sunday. Cincinnati simply doesn't have enough impressive victories to garner serious consideration right now. The Bearcats have four victories over top-50 RPI opponents, but none of them are overly impressive. They beat UAB at home, swept two games against Georgetown and won at UNLV. Cincinnati is 0-8 against RPI top-30 opponents and has beaten none of the Big East's best teams.

Providence [17-11 (9-7), RPI: 71, SOS: 35] The Friars got the signature victory they desperately needed this week, but it might still be too little too late. Their stunning 81-73 upset of No. 1 Pittsburgh on Tuesday at least keeps them in the at-large discussion. Providence has two victories over RPI top-50 opponents; it also beat Syracuse, 100-94, on Jan. 28. But besides sweeping two games over fellow Big East bubble team Cincinnati, the Friars haven't done much else. They'll probably have to win their last two regular-season games -- at Rutgers on Sunday and at Villanova on March 5 -- and win a couple of games in the Big East Tournament to get serious at-large consideration.

Notre Dame [16-11 (7-8), RPI: 73, SOS: 75] The Fighting Irish kept their at-large hopes alive with an ugly 70-65 victory at home over Rutgers on Wednesday. Notre Dame still sits at 7-8 in Big East play, and it might have to win at least one (or both) of its next two games: at Connecticut on Saturday and home against Villanova on Monday. The Irish really need another signature victory to show the selection committee. They have three wins over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Louisville (home), Texas (neutral court) and Georgetown (home). But Notre Dame is 3-9 overall against RPI top-50 opponents and 4-10 against the top 100. The Irish routed fellow Big East bubble team Providence on the road, but lost at Cincinnati.

Locks



Big Ten Conference
Work left to do: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State

The Big Ten bubble is bigger than ever, with five teams trying to join Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue in the NCAA tournament. A combination of the Big Ten's five bubble teams -- Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State -- will square off four times in the next 11 days, creating do-or-die situations for at least a few of them. Ohio State and Minnesota still seem to be in better shape than the others, but Wisconsin and Penn State aren't finished yet.

Wisconsin [17-10 (8-7), RPI: 29, SOS: 5] The Badgers really could have made up some ground by winning at Michigan State on Sunday, but the Badgers blew a 12-point lead in the final 12 1/2 minutes of a 61-50 loss in East Lansing. The loss ended Wisconsin's five-game winning streak and really adds some pressure for the final three regular-season games. Wisconsin likely needs to finish 10-8 in Big Ten play to feel remotely confident about its at-large chances. The Badgers play Michigan at home on Sunday, at Minnesota on March 4 and at home against Indiana on March 7. Wisconsin has only two wins against RPI top-50 opponents, and both came at home against Big Ten foes (Illinois and Ohio State). Its best non-conference victory came at Virginia Tech on Dec. 1. The Badgers are 2-8 against RPI top-50 foes and 8-9 against the top 100.

Minnesota [20-7 (8-7), RPI: 36, SOS: 60] The Gophers ended their two-game losing streak by demolishing Northwestern, 72-45, on Sunday. Minnesota probably needs at least a .500 record in Big Ten play to stay in at-large contention, so it will have to win one of its last three regular-season games against fellow Big Ten bubble teams. It plays at Illinois on Thursday, then plays home games against Wisconsin on March 4 and Michigan on March 7. The Gophers split two-game series against Penn State and Ohio State and won at Wisconsin, but they lost at Michigan earlier this month. Minnesota's 70-64 victory over Louisville on Dec. 20 (neutral court) should really help its chances on Selection Sunday.

Ohio State [18-8 (8-7), RPI: 41, SOS: 31] The Buckeyes are still in pretty good shape to receive an at-large bid, but their recent slide of losing three of four games leaves a little bit of doubt. Ohio State helped its cause by beating Penn State, 73-59, at home Tuesday. The Buckeyes are 4-7 against RPI top-50 opponents, beating Butler, Purdue and Minnesota at home and winning at Miami (Fla.). Ohio State swept two games against fellow Big Ten bubble team Michigan and beat Penn State. It split games against Minnesota, but lost at Wisconsin. The Buckeyes play at Purdue on Saturday, and a victory there probably would lock up an at-large spot. Ohio State closes the regular season with a road game at Iowa on March 3 and home against Northwestern on March 8.

Michigan [17-11 (7-8), RPI: 55, SOS: 19] Star guard Manny Harris picked a heck of a time for a meltdown. The Wolverines desperately needed a road victory and nearly had one at Iowa on Sunday, before losing 70-60 in overtime. With a 7-8 record in Big Ten play, Michigan will need to win at least two of its next three games -- home against Purdue on Thursday night and road games at Wisconsin on March 1 and at Minnesota on March 7. The Wolverines are only 4-8 against RPI top-50 foes and 2-7 in road games. Their victories over Duke (home), Illinois (home), UCLA (neutral court) and Minnesota (home) will carry some weight with the selection committee, but they also have to show they can win away from Ann Arbor. The Wolverines lost twice to Ohio State and also lost at home against Wisconsin. They beat Minnesota at home and split games against Penn State.

Penn State [19-9 (8-7), RPI: 61, SOS: 90] After surprising Minnesota and Illinois last week, the Nittany Lions took a step back with a 73-59 loss at Ohio State on Tuesday night. Penn State is still in the mix, but it might have to win home games against Indiana on Saturday and Illinois on March 5 to have a real chance on Selection Sunday. The Nittany Lions have already won at Michigan State and Illinois, and sweeping the Illini would really grab the selection committee's attention. They also beat Purdue and Minnesota at home. But they'll get no help from their nonconference schedule, which ranks No. 319 nationally. Penn State's best nonconference victory came against RPI No. 123 Mount St. Mary's.

Locks



Big 12 Conference
Teams that should be in: Texas
Work left to do: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin's concussion throws a major wrench into the Big 12 race, where the Sooners have fallen one game behind Kansas in the league standings. Texas benefited greatly from Griffin's injury, beating the Sooners to move back to the right side of the bubble. Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri remain locks to receive at-large bids, and Texas seems very close to joining them. But only two other Big 12 teams -- Oklahoma State and Texas A&M -- are currently on the bubble. Kansas State and Nebraska both fell off after losing this week, although the winner of their game Saturday in Manhattan might have a chance to return to Bubble Watch on Sunday.

Texas [19-8 (8-5), RPI: 38, SOS: 42] Four days after beating rival Oklahoma, the Longhorns avoided a big letdown by beating Texas Tech 87-81 in Austin. It wasn't a very pretty victory, but Texas improved to 8-5 in Big 12 play. As long as the Longhorns win one of their last three regular-season games -- at Oklahoma State on Saturday, home against Baylor on March 2 and at Kansas on March 7 -- they'll probably make the NCAA's 65-team field. Texas has six victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Oklahoma (home), Villanova (neutral court), Wisconsin (road), Oklahoma State (home), Texas A&M (home) and UCLA (home). The Longhorns are 6-4 against RPI top-50 opponents and 8-7 against the top 100. Surely that's more than enough to earn an at-large bid.


Oklahoma State [18-9 (7-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 12] Oklahoma State beat up another one of the Big 12's lesser teams on Wednesday night, winning at Colorado, 76-55. The Cowboys have good computer numbers because of their aggressive scheduling, but they have only two RPI top-50 victories (over Siena and Texas A&M). In fact, the seven Big 12 opponents the Cowboys have beaten (with two wins over Texas Tech) have a combined record of 22-56 in conference play. Oklahoma State is 2-8 against RPI top-50 opponents and 6-9 against the top 100 and probably needs to beat either Texas at home Saturday or Oklahoma on the road March 7 to have a legitimate chance on Selection Sunday.

Texas A&M [20-8 (6-7), RPI: 34, SOS: 30] Josh Carter's 3-pointer at the buzzer in Tuesday night's 57-55 victory at Nebraska kept the Aggies' at-large hopes alive. Texas A&M rallied from an 18-point deficit in the second half to beat the Cornhuskers, who were all but eliminated from bubble discussion with their third loss in four games. Texas A&M still sits at 6-7 in Big 12 play but should be favored in its next two games -- home against Iowa State on Saturday and at Colorado on March 4. The Aggies close the regular season at home against Missouri on March 7. The Aggies are 4-5 against RPI top-50 opponents, including impressive nonconference victories over LSU (neutral court) and Arizona (home).They also beat Texas and Oklahoma State during Big 12 play. Texas A&M probably needs to finish at least .500 in Big 12 play, so it will have to win two of its last three games.

Locks



Pacific-10 Conference
Teams that should be in: California, Arizona
Work left to do: USC

The Pac-10 regular-season title could be decided Thursday night, when Arizona State plays Washington in Seattle. The teams are tied in the loss column of the Pac-10 standings, although the Sun Devils still have four Pac-10 games to play. California and UCLA are both one and a half games behind the Huskies. UCLA needs to build some momentum before the postseason after losing three of its last four games. USC needs some wins, too, or the Trojans will be in serious danger of missing the NCAA tournament.

California [20-7 (9-5), RPI: 32, SOS: 57] The Bears are still in pretty good shape, even after losing at Oregon State 65-54 on Saturday, their second loss this season to the Beavers. California is 6-4 against the RPI top 50 and 7-4 against the top 100. The Bears beat Utah (road), Washington (home and road), Arizona State (home), Arizona (home) and UNLV (road). Cal has four tough games to finish the regular season: home against USC on Thursday night and UCLA on Saturday, followed by road games at Arizona on March 5 and at Arizona State on March 7.

Arizona [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 44, SOS: 38] The Wildcats had their seven-game winning streak end with a 70-68 loss at rival Arizona State on Sunday night. But as long as the Wildcats win two of their last four regular-season games -- at Washington State on Thursday night and at Washington on Saturday, along with home games against California on March 5 and Stanford on March 7 -- they'll probably make the NCAA tournament field. Arizona has five wins over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Kansas (home), Washington (home), UCLA (home), Gonzaga (neutral court) and USC (home). The Wildcats are 5-8 against RPI top-50 opponents and 8-8 against the top 100.


USC [16-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 13] The Trojans need to rally after losing four of their last five games. USC's latest setback came at home Saturday, when it lost to Washington, 60-51. USC is only 3-8 against RPI top-50 opponents, beating Arizona State, California and Arizona at home. The Trojans' best nonconference victory came against RPI No. 100 North Dakota State. USC is only 2-6 on the road, and 12 of its 16 victories came against teams ranked outside the RPI top 100. The Trojans might need to win at least three of their last four regular-season games -- at Cal and Stanford this week and home against Oregon and Oregon State next week -- to feel remotely confident about their at-large chances.

Locks



Southeastern Conference
Work left to do: Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky

LSU continues to roll through the SEC, earning at least a share of the regular-season championship with its 81-75 victory over Florida on Tuesday night. South Carolina also took a big step toward winning the SEC East by blasting Kentucky 77-59 in a game that wasn't even that close. The SEC might end up getting five teams into the NCAA tournament, but the storied Wildcats would be the last team included at this point.

Tennessee [17-10 (8-5), RPI: 26, SOS: 2] The Volunteers ended their two-game losing streak with an 81-76 victory over Mississippi State on Wednesday night. The Vols are 8-5 in SEC play, but they face two very tough road games: at Florida on Sunday and at South Carolina on March 5. Tennessee closes the regular season at home against Alabama on March 8. Unless the Vols lose their final three regular-season games, they seem to be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. They have five wins over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Marquette (neutral court), Siena (neutral court), Florida (home), Georgetown (neutral court) and South Carolina (home). The Vols are 5-6 against RPI top-50 teams and 6-10 against the top 100. But Tennessee will get a lot of credit for playing the country's second-toughest schedule and still seems in better shape than the rest of the SEC's bubble teams.

South Carolina [20-6 (9-4), RPI: 42, SOS: 91] How's that for a statement? With the SEC East lead on the line, South Carolina absolutely demolished Kentucky 77-59 in Columbia, sweeping the Wildcats for the first time since 1997. The Gamecocks improved to 9-4 in SEC play and won for the eighth time in their last 10 games. South Carolina's overall body of work leaves a little to be desired (only one RPI top-50 victory and no true quality nonconference victories), but it's certainly pretty close to "lock" status with three regular-season games to play. With one more victory, the Gamecocks will assure themselves at worst a 10-6 finish in SEC play. They play at Vanderbilt on Saturday, host Tennessee on March 5 and play at Georgia on March 7. In only his first season, Darrin Horn has South Carolina on the verge of playing in its first NCAA tournament since 2004.

Florida [21-7 (8-5), RPI: 43, SOS: 101] The Gators could have really used another marquee victory, but they lost at LSU 81-75 on Tuesday night. Florida has only two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Washington (neutral court) and South Carolina (home). In fact, 15 of Florida's 21 victories came against teams ranked outside the RPI top 100. Florida's mediocre strength of schedule (No. 101 overall and No. 233 nonconference) leaves it some work to do. Florida hosts Tennessee on March 1 and plays at Mississippi State on March 4. The Gators close the regular season at home against Kentucky on March 7. As long as Florida finishes the regular season with a winning record in SEC play, it's hard to imagine it will be left out of the NCAA field.

Kentucky [19-9 (8-5), RPI: 63, SOS: 81] The Wildcats' ugly loss at South Carolina on Wednesday night proved to be more than a potential roadblock. Kentucky suffered its most demoralizing loss of the season, at least since it opened the season by losing to RPI No. 138 VMI 111-103 at Rupp Arena. The loss at South Carolina was an outcome the Wildcats simply couldn't afford. They went into the game rated No. 60 in the RPI, and they had no room for error. And the Wildcats didn't even bother to show up. The Wildcats have four RPI top-50 victories, beating Tennessee twice, West Virginia (neutral court) and Florida (home). That's really about it as far as the Wildcats' résumé. To appear in its 18th consecutive NCAA tournament, Kentucky will either have to win the SEC tournament or have to win at least two of their last three regular-season games. The Wildcats host LSU on Saturday and Georgia on March 4 and then close the regular season at Florida on March 7. Given its mediocre computer numbers and recent slide, Kentucky will probably need at least a 10-6 finish in the SEC to have a chance for an at-large bid.

Locks



Mountain West Conference
Work left to do: Brigham Young, UNLV, New Mexico

With its 70-60 home victory over UNLV on Wednesday night, Mountain West leader Utah moves into "lock" status this week. The Utes have lofty computer ratings and a couple of impressive nonconference victories over LSU and Gonzaga. The rest of the MWC race remains muddled. BYU and New Mexico are tied for second place (two games behind the Utes), followed by San Diego State and UNLV. The Rebels are in fifth place in the MWC standings but probably have the second-best case to make the NCAA field.

Brigham Young [21-6 (9-4), RPI: 23, SOS: 41] The Cougars remained two games behind Utah in the Mountain West standings after winning at San Diego State 69-59 on Tuesday night. The Cougars are 1-5 against RPI top-50 teams, beating Utah State 68-63 on Dec. 6. They also have victories over San Diego State (home and road) and New Mexico (home). But BYU lost twice to UNLV and split games with New Mexico. It can't afford to lose twice to Utah, which plays in Provo on Saturday. In fact, it might need to beat the Utes to have a legitimate chance at an at-large bid. BYU finishes the regular season with a road game at Wyoming on March 4 and home against Air Force on March 7.

UNLV [20-8 (8-6), RPI: 49, SOS: 73] The Rebels lost at Utah 70-60 on Wednesday night, but they're still in decent shape because they swept games against BYU and beat the Utes at home. UNLV also has a very impressive 56-55 victory at Louisville on Dec. 31 and 79-64 home win over Arizona on Dec. 20. UNLV is 5-2 against RPI top-50 opponents and 9-6 against the top 100. UNLV probably can't afford to lose either of its last two regular-season games, though, because it currently sits in fifth place in the Mountain West standings. BYU, New Mexico and San Diego State are ahead of UNLV in the league standings, but the Rebels' overall body of work is more impressive. The Rebels will have to overcome a trifecta of ugly road defeats, losing at TCU, Colorado State and Wyoming. UNLV closes the regular season at home against Air Force on March 4 and at San Diego State on March 7.

New Mexico [18-10 (9-4), RPI: 70, SOS: 78] The Lobos are back in the mix after winning five of their last six games, including a 76-62 victory over TCU at home Tuesday night. New Mexico probably needs to win its last three games and finish 12-4 in Mountain West Conference play to receive serious consideration. It has only two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating BYU and UNLV at home. The Lobos are 2-4 against RPI top-50 foes and 5-7 against the top 100. They play at Colorado State on Saturday, host Utah on March 3 and finish the regular season at Wyoming on March 7. New Mexico has three unsightly losses, to RPI No. 132 Texas Tech, No. 134 Central Florida and No. 144 Drake. And a win over Ole Miss is the only thing remotely close to decent in nonconference play.

Locks



Other at-large contenders
Teams that should be in: Dayton
Work left to do: Siena, Utah State, Temple, UAB, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Rhode Island, Davidson

Two games this week will go a long way in thinning out the bubble teams from the so-called non-BCS conferences. Conference USA leader Memphis plays at UAB on Thursday night. The Blazers will probably have to beat the Tigers to have any chance at an at-large bid. Temple plays at Dayton on Saturday, and the Owls will have to win for the Atlantic 10 to have a chance at getting three teams into the NCAA tournament. Most of the other bubble teams from non-BCS conferences are currently on the wrong side of the bubble. They can't do much else to help their cause; they just can't afford to lose.

Dayton [23-5 (9-4), RPI: 33, SOS: 116] The Flyers fall from "lock" status after losing consecutive games at Saint Louis on Saturday and at Rhode Island on Wednesday night. Dayton will probably still make the NCAA tournament field, as long as it wins two of its final three-regular seasons -- home against Temple on Saturday, at Xavier on March 5 and home against Duquesne on March 7. The Flyers don't want to end the regular season with a five-game losing streak. They have two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, beating Xavier at home and Marquette on a neutral court. They also have victories over George Mason and Miami (Ohio). But Dayton has three ugly losses: at RPI No. 112 Saint Louis, No. 162 Massachusetts and No. 176 Charlotte.


Siena [22-6 (15-1), RPI: 24, SOS: 61] If the NCAA selection committee filled out its bracket based solely on RPI ratings, the Saints would be a lock to make the 65-team field. Obviously, the committee will take a closer look at Siena's body of work, which doesn't include a single victory over an RPI top-50 opponent. Siena's best win came against RPI No. 62 Niagara. Siena is 0-4 against RPI top-50 opponents, losing to Pittsburgh and Kansas on the road and Tennessee and Oklahoma State on neutral courts. The Saints have wins over Saint Joseph's (road) and Northern Iowa (home), but they also have ugly losses to RPI No. 142 Rider and No. 150 Wichita State. To make the NCAA tournament, the Saints will probably have to win the MAAC tournament.

Utah State [25-3 (12-1), RPI: 28, SOS: 133] The Aggies' résumé is very similar to Siena's, and they'll probably face the same fate as the Saints -- they'll have to win the WAC tournament to play in the NCAAs, especially if they lose to Nevada on Thursday night. Utah State didn't help itself by losing at injury-depleted Saint Mary's 75-64 in a BracketBusters game Saturday. There just really isn't much to Utah State's résumé. The Aggies have one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent: They beat Utah 66-64 at home Dec. 22. Utah State is 1-2 against RPI top-50 opponents and 5-3 against the top 100. Its 10-2 record away from home will certainly help, but it might not be enough for an at-large bid.

Temple [17-9 (9-3), RPI: 37, SOS: 40] The Owls have one more hurdle -- they play La Salle on Thursday -- before playing a must-win game at Dayton on Saturday. Beating the Flyers won't mean as much as it did a couple of weeks ago, because Dayton has lost its last two games at Saint Louis and Rhode Island. But if Temple loses at Dayton, it probably won't have much of a chance for an at-large bid on Selection Sunday. Temple did beat fellow bubble resident Penn State on the road, but has only one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent, beating Tennessee 88-72 at home Dec. 13. The Owls are 8-7 on the road and 1-4 against RPI top-50 opponents. They'll also have to overcome a pair of bad losses (at RPI No. 148 Long Beach State and at No. 162 Massachusetts).

UAB [19-8 (9-3), RPI: 40, SOS: 67] The Blazers' postseason fate will probably be determined Thursday night, when they host Conference USA leader Memphis in Birmingham. UAB rolled past Southern Mississippi 86-56 on Saturday, a good sign heading into its must-win game against the Tigers. Without a victory over Memphis, which would end its 53-game winning streak over Conference USA foes, UAB probably won't have much of a chance for an at-large bid. UAB is 1-4 against RPI top-50 opponents and 2-8 against the top 100. UAB beat Arizona 72-71 on the road on Nov. 18, but lost to Oklahoma (neutral court), Memphis (road), Louisville (road), Butler (road), Cincinnati (road) and Boston College (neutral court).

Creighton [24-6 (13-4), RPI: 45, SOS: 124] The Bluejays play Illinois State at home Saturday, their final regular-season game. Creighton is tied with Northern Iowa for first place in the Missouri Valley Conference standings. Creighton won its ninth game in a row Tuesday night, beating Missouri State 65-59 on the road. The Bluejays are 9-5 against RPI top-100 opponents. The Bluejays beat Dayton 77-59 on Dec. 10 and have victories over New Mexico (home) and Saint Joseph's (road). If Creighton beats Illinois State and wins at least one game in the MVC tournament in St. Louis, it should have a pretty compelling case for an at-large bid.

Saint Mary's [22-5 (8-4), RPI: 50, SOS: 137] The Gaels will present a very interesting dilemma for the NCAA selection committee, especially if injured point guard Patty Mills doesn't return for the upcoming West Coast tournament. With Mills on the court, Saint Mary's is capable of beating just about anyone. Without him, the Gaels will labor against most opponents. Saint Mary's has only one victory over an RPI top-50 team, beating Utah State 75-64 at home in a BracketBusters game last week. In fact, 17 of the Gaels' 20 victories came against teams ranked outside the RPI top 100. The Gaels must advance to the finals of the West Coast tournament to feel remotely confident about their at-large chances.

Rhode Island [21-8 (10-4), RPI: 57, SOS: 134] The Rams beat Dayton 93-91 in overtime on Wednesday night, with Marquis Jones scoring the winning basket on a layup at the buzzer. It was Rhode Island's 10th victory in its last 12 games, and it moved into third place in the Atlantic 10 standings, trailing Xavier and Temple by a game in the loss column. Rhode Island has two RPI top-50 victories, beating Dayton and Temple at home. Five of the Rams' eight losses came against RPI top-50 opponents and only one was decided by more than six points. Rhode Island closes the regular season with a road game at Duquesne on Sunday and home against Massachusetts on March 7.

Davidson [23-6 (16-2), RPI: 66, SOS: 140] Davidson routed UNC-Greensboro 70-49 at home on Wednesday night, but it still sits in a very precarious position. The Wildcats probably have to win next month's Southern Conference tournament in Chattanooga, Tenn., to return to the NCAAs. Davidson has only one victory over an RPI top-50 opponent, beating West Virginia 68-65 on a neutral court on Dec. 9. Davidson's next-best win came against NC State. The Wildcats also lost home games to RPI No. 110 Charleston and No. 152 The Citadel (without the injured guard Stephen Curry). There just isn't enough to justify an at-large bid for the Wildcats, even after they advanced to the region finals in the 2008 NCAA tournament.

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