College Basketball Bubble Watch

Bubble Watch takes one final look at the teams sweating it out

Editor's note: This file has been updated to include all games through Saturday, March 14.

The carnage from Championship Saturday was minimal for the dozen or so college basketball teams left on the NCAA tournament bubble.

The good news:

• Memphis won its fourth consecutive Conference USA tournament final, leaving an elusive at-large bid for a team from another league. The Tigers also helped themselves in their campaign for a No. 1 seed by routing Tulsa 64-39, their 61st consecutive win over a C-USA foe. It also was their 25th straight pre-tournament victory, the longest winning streak any team this decade has taken into the NCAA tournament.

• Missouri prevented Baylor from becoming this season's Georgia by beating the Bears 73-60 in the Big 12 tournament final in Oklahoma City. The Tigers grabbed the Big 12's automatic bid and kept Baylor from stealing an NCAA tournament bid.

• Utah defeated San Diego State 52-50 in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game, possibly leaving the MWC with only two teams in the NCAA tournament (the Utes and BYU). San Diego State is still in contention for an at-large bid, but the Aztecs have a dearth of high-end victories, so they might end up in the NIT.

• Utah State beat Nevada 72-62 in the WAC tournament final Saturday night to earn an automatic NCAA tournament bid. The Aggies might have finished on the wrong side of the bubble if they hadn't won, but no team with as many victories (29) has ever been left out of the NCAA tournament field. We'll never know what the committee might have done with Utah State.

The bad news:

• Southern California came back from a 15-point deficit to beat Arizona State 66-63 in the Pac-10 tournament final in Los Angeles. The Trojans had worked their way back onto the bubble by winning four games in a row, but their nonconference performance and 9-9 finish probably would have kept them out of the tournament field. But by surprising the Sun Devils, USC earned an automatic ticket to the Big Dance.

Four more automatic bids will be awarded Sunday, but only one conference tournament game has bubble implications. Tennessee plays Mississippi State in the SEC tournament final in Tampa, Fla. The Volunteers have done more than enough to earn an at-large bid, but the Bulldogs will have to win their league's automatic bid.

Going into Sunday's games, 27 automatic bids have been awarded. Four more teams will win auto bids Sunday, and 30 teams have done enough to earn either "lock" or "should be in" status in Bubble Watch, bringing the total to 61 teams in the 65-team field.

As long as Tennessee defeats Mississippi State in the SEC tourney final, four at-large bids will remain for 11 teams on the bubble.

Bubble Watch's educated guess for Selection Sunday is that the last four at-large bids will go to Minnesota, Maryland, Saint Mary's and Penn State. The first four out? Creighton, San Diego State, Arizona and Auburn.

Here's the latest Bubble Watch:

Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Maryland

Was Maryland's victory over Wake Forest in the ACC tournament quarterfinals enough to earn the Terrapins an at-large bid? They played well against Duke on Saturday but ultimately fell short of the league title game. Six ACC teams seem assured of getting into the NCAA tournament, and the Terrapins would be the league's seventh entrant.

Maryland [20-13 (7-9), RPI: 54, SOS: 22] The Terrapins once again played one of the ACC's best teams down to the wire before losing to Duke 67-61 in the ACC tourney semifinals Saturday. That might end up being the story of Maryland's season. Maryland finished 7-9 in ACC play after losing at Virginia 68-63 in its regular-season finale, and coach Gary Williams has to wonder whether that loss will come back to haunt his team. Maryland won twice in Atlanta to improve its record to 9-10 against league foes. Maryland has four high-end victories, having beaten North Carolina (home), Michigan State (neutral court), Michigan (home) and Wake Forest (neutral court). The Terps went 4-8 against RPI top-50 foes and 8-11 against the top 100. Just as important, they proved this week they can win away from home after going only 2-6 in road games during the regular season. Maryland's at-large chances probably will come down to the wire, just like many of its games this season.

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Big East Conference
Work left to do: Providence

Louisville won the Big East tournament championship Saturday night, as Syracuse finally ran out of gas in a 76-66 loss. By winning the Big East regular-season and tournament titles, the Cardinals seem assured of earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Pittsburgh probably will get a No. 1 seed, too, but Connecticut might find itself as a 2-seed. Providence's chances of earning an at-large bid aren't very good, either.

Providence [19-13 (10-8), RPI: 72, SOS: 54] After Thursday's 18-point loss to Louisville, it doesn't look great for PC. Other teams on the bubble simply have more meat on their résumés. The Friars upset then-No. 1 Pittsburgh 81-73 on Feb. 24 and beat Syracuse 100-94 on Jan. 28. But those are really the only quality wins in Providence's inflated 10-8 finish in Big East play. PC also swept games against Cincinnati and beat Rhode Island at home. It finished 2-8 against RPI top-50 foes and 5-13 against the top 100. The Friars have four blowout road losses in Big East play, having lost at Connecticut by 33 points, Louisville by 18, Villanova by 17 and West Virginia by 27.

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Big Ten Conference
Teams that should be in: Michigan, Wisconsin
Work left to do: Minnesota, Penn State

Seven? Eight? How many Big Ten teams will be invited to the NCAA tournament? That will be one of the biggest puzzles heading into Selection Sunday. Four Big Ten teams -- Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue and Ohio State -- have done enough to lock up at-large bids. The Boilermakers or Buckeyes will win the league's automatic bid when they play for the Big Ten tournament title in Indianapolis on Sunday. Michigan and Wisconsin are probably in the field, too, but Minnesota and Penn State are still on the bubble. At least one of them probably will make the field, maybe even both.

Michigan [20-13 (9-9), RPI: 44, SOS: 11] Who thinks the Wolverines stayed up into early Friday morning listening to the analysts talk about how they'd earned an at-large bid by beating Iowa in the Big Ten tournament? The Wolverines didn't seem too inspired to play Illinois in the Big Ten quarterfinals on Friday, falling behind by 20 points in the second half. Give the Wolverines credit for making it a 60-50 game by the end, thus avoiding an ugly blowout defeat that might have raised eyebrows in the NCAA war room. Nonetheless, Michigan has done more than enough to earn an NCAA at-large bid. Michigan's nonconference victories over Duke and UCLA carry a lot of weight on their own, but they're coupled with Big Ten victories over Illinois, Minnesota (twice) and Purdue. The Wolverines should be fine on Selection Sunday.

Wisconsin [19-12 (10-8), RPI: 45, SOS: 20] The Badgers went ice-cold in the closing minutes of their loss to Ohio State on Friday, and a victory over the Buckeyes would have locked up an at-large bid. But Wisconsin still seems to be in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. Even after a six-game losing streak at one point, UW finished 10-8 in Big Ten play. It swept games against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Michigan and Penn State but lost twice to Minnesota. Wisconsin has four RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Illinois and Ohio State at home and having swept the Wolverines. The Badgers are 4-10 against RPI top-50 opponents and 9-11 against the top 100.


Minnesota [22-10 (9-9), RPI: 42, SOS: 37] The Gophers lost seven of their last 11 games, including an eight-point loss to Michigan State on Friday. Unlike fellow bubble resident Penn State, Minnesota has one nonconference gem: a neutral-site victory over Louisville. It's the gift that just keeps giving. The Gophers were 5-8 against RPI top-50 foes, beating Illinois (home), Wisconsin (home and road) and Ohio State (home), in addition to the Cardinals. The Gophers went 3-1 against fellow Big Ten bubble teams Wisconsin and Penn State, which should help on Selection Sunday.

Penn State [22-11 (10-8), RPI: 70, SOS: 119] After trouncing Indiana in their opening-round game in the Big Ten tournament, the Nittany Lions lost to Purdue 79-65 on Friday night. Penn State didn't put up much of a fight against the Boilermakers, so it didn't provide a great lasting impression for the NCAA selection committee. But unless the NCAA just doesn't want eight Big Ten teams in its tournament, it will be hard to ignore Penn State's 10-8 finish in Big Ten play and its six victories over RPI top-50 opponents. Penn State might be penalized for its soft nonconference schedule, but its performance during conference play might be enough to get it in the 65-team field. The Nittany Lions beat Michigan State (road), Illinois (home and road), Purdue (home), Minnesota (home) and Michigan (home). On the other hand, it's hard to get past that No. 313 nonconference strength of schedule. The best win? Against No. 118 Mount St. Mary's. Yikes.

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Big 12 Conference

Missouri ended Baylor's dream of an NCAA tournament bid by beating the Bears 73-60 in the Big 12 tournament championship game Saturday. Missouri will make its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2003. The Tigers probably will be joined by five other Big 12 teams -- Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas A&M -- in the 65-team field.

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Pacific-10 Conference
Work left to do: Arizona

USC beat Arizona State 66-63 in Saturday's Pac-10 tournament championship game in Los Angeles to claim the league's NCAA tournament automatic bid. The No. 6-seeded Trojans came back from a 15-point deficit at the half and became the lowest-seeded team to win the Pac-10 tourney. Which team will be hurt most by USC's stealing an at-large bid? Maybe Arizona, which is looking to extend its streak of 24 consecutive appearances in the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats are clearly on the bubble, and the Trojans might have taken their spot in the NCAA bracket.

Arizona [19-13 (9-9), RPI: 62, SOS: 36] The Wildcats have appeared in 24 consecutive NCAA tournaments since 1985, the longest active streak in the country and second-longest in history. But that streak appears to be in serious jeopardy after Zona lost to rival Arizona State for the third time this season, 68-56, in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles. The Wildcats will present a compelling case with six RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Kansas, Washington, UCLA, USC and San Diego State at home and Gonzaga in Phoenix. The Wildcats were 6-10 against RPI top-50 foes and 8-12 against the top 100. But Arizona might be hurt by its 2-9 record in road games and 1-5 slide at season's end.

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Southeastern Conference
Work left to do: Florida, South Carolina, Auburn

If the SEC is to put three teams into the NCAA tournament, Mississippi State might have to beat Tennessee in Sunday's SEC tournament final in Tampa, Fla. The Volunteers and regular-season champion LSU seem to be the only sure bets to make the 65-team field. SEC East co-champs South Carolina and Florida both went one-and-done in the SEC tourney, performances that probably will bump them to the NIT. Auburn lost to Tennessee 94-85 in Saturday's semis, and the Tigers just don't seem to have enough positives on their résumé to earn an at-large bid.

Florida [23-10 (9-7), RPI: 52, SOS: 94] After winning the SEC tournament three straight times from 2005 to 2007, the Gators lost their first postseason game for the second consecutive season Friday night. Florida also seems to be in serious danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the second straight time after winning back-to-back national championships in 2006 and '07. There just simply isn't enough meat on Florida's résumé. South Carolina's loss on Friday dropped its RPI rating outside the top 50, leaving the Gators with only one top-50 victory (over Washington on a neutral court). The Gators are 1-5 against RPI top-50 foes and 8-9 against the top 100. Worse, they went 2-7 in road games. That isn't good enough for an at-large bid this season.

South Carolina [21-9 (10-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 95] It's hard to imagine the SEC East co-champions being left out of the NCAA tournament in most seasons, but the Gamecocks simply don't have much to show the selection committee. After going one-and-done in the SEC tournament (losing to Mississippi State on Friday), the Gamecocks don't have a single victory over a team rated in the RPI top 50 -- the closest being a home win over No. 52 Florida. South Carolina might get some mileage out of its 85-84 win at Baylor and its 68-56 victory over Auburn at home. The Gamecocks also swept games against traditional SEC power Kentucky, but that feat won't carry as much weight as it traditionally would have. South Carolina went 0-4 against RPI top-50 foes and 7-8 against the top 100.

Auburn [22-11 (10-6), RPI: 63, SOS: 59] The Tigers probably had to reach the SEC tourney final to earn an at-large bid, and they really never put up much of a fight against Tennessee. Auburn (and possibly South Carolina) would become the first teams to finish 10-6 in SEC play and be left out of the NCAA tournament field since the league split into divisions in 1991-92. (The 2002-03 Georgia team went 11-5, but the school withdrew from the postseason because of NCAA rules violations.) Auburn won 11 times against SEC foes, but that probably isn't enough to earn an at-large bid, at least not this season. Auburn lost to Mercer in its second game and has only two RPI top-50 victories, having beaten Tennessee and LSU at home. Auburn's best nonconference victories came against RPI No. 113 Virginia and No. 188 Tulane. In fact, 16 of the Tigers' 22 victories came against foes ranked outside the RPI top 100.

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Mountain West Conference
Work left to do: San Diego State

When the MWC tournament started in Las Vegas on Wednesday, the league had five teams sitting on the NCAA tournament bubble. But when the NCAA announces the 65-team field on Sunday, there's a chance only Utah and BYU will appear on the bracket. San Diego State is the best candidate for a second at-large bid, but it doesn't have much meat on its résumé, other than Mountain West victories over Utah and Brigham Young.

San Diego State [23-9 (11-5), RPI: 35, SOS: 35] The Aztecs nearly beat Utah to win the MWC tournament Saturday, but their 52-50 loss leaves them holding their collective breath until the NCAA bracket is announced Sunday. San Diego State's chances for an at-large bid are probably 50-50 at best. It has only two RPI top-50 victories, beating league foes BYU 64-62 in Friday's MWC tournament semifinals and Utah 72-63 at home on Jan. 10. In fact, three of its seven RPI top-100 victories came against the same MWC team -- UNLV. The Aztecs are 2-6 against the RPI top 50 and 7-9 against the top 100. Their best nonconference victories came against RPI No. 127 Cal State Northridge and No. 177 Cal-Santa Barbara. San Diego State's 11-5 finish in the MWC standings was nice, but it has little else to show the selection committee.

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Other at-large contenders
Work left to do: Creighton, Saint Mary's

It was close, but Temple probably would not have earned an at-large berth without beating Duquesne in Saturday night's Atlantic 10 title game. The same fate might have befallen Utah State, but the Aggies took care of business as well, winning at Nevada for the WAC tournament title Saturday night. So victories by the Owls and Aggies take them off this list, while Tulsa's blowout loss to Memphis in the C-USA title game takes the Golden Hurricane off in the other direction. That leaves just two mid-majors that are in contention but not considered locks.

Creighton [26-7 (14-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 111] The Bluejays might have lost their at-large bid when Cleveland State won the Horizon League tournament, USC won the Pac-10 and Temple won the Atlantic 10. Creighton was routed 73-49 by Illinois State in the semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, not the kind of impression you want to leave in March. But Creighton still has a pretty good argument for an at-large bid, with victories over RPI top-50 opponents Dayton and Illinois State. The Bluejays also have victories over New Mexico (home) and MVC champion Northern Iowa (road). They're 2-2 against RPI top-50 foes and 9-5 against the top 100. They'll also get help from their more-than-respectable 8-4 record in road games and 11-1 finish.

Saint Mary's [26-6 (10-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 159] Instead of sitting and watching other bubble teams try to win at-large bids, the Gaels played a regular-season game Friday night, beating Eastern Washington 85-65. Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett didn't schedule the game until last week and wanted to use it to showcase point guard Patty Mills. Mills missed his team's final nine regular-season games after breaking his right hand, and he looked shaky in the Gaels' two games in the WCC tournament. Mills scored 19 points on 6-for-14 shooting against Eastern Washington, a 12-18 team from the Big Sky Conference. It was Saint Mary's 26th victory of the season. Only six teams with 26 wins have been left out of the NCAA field. (Creighton, Niagara and Charleston also won 26 games this season.) The Gaels have two victories over RPI top-50 opponents, having beaten Utah State at home and San Diego State on a neutral court. They lost to Gonzaga three times, including an ugly 83-58 defeat in the finals of the WCC tournament. It probably will be a close call on Selection Sunday.

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