Too high? Too low?

Updated: November 12, 2003, 3:23 PM ET

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By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
Archive

The polls are out. The 2003-04 season is about to tip off. So, which teams are ranked too high or too low in the preseason polls? ESPN.com's Andy Katz takes a look at the five teams most likely to move up or out of the top 25 as the games begin:

Five Who Could Rise
Stanford ESPN/USA Today: 17th AP: 19th	Putting the Cardinal outside the top 16 could be a mistake. Stanford will get little national pub, but does have the recipe to make a Final Four run. Check Gary Williams' ingredients for the Final Four and the Cardinal possess most of them. They have a veteran team at all but one position -- the point guard. This team also has the hunger after losing in the second round to Connecticut. Stanford will win a lot of games and won't be an easy out come March. This team, in the right bracket, could find itself in San Antonio yet again.
Okla. St. ESPN/USA Today: 24th AP: 25th	The Cowboys were just missing one piece, a point guard, and found one in former Baylor player John Lucas III. The Cowboys are laying low in the top-heavy Big 12. Oklahoma State still returns the veteran wing in Tony Allen and the fellow senior forward in Ivan McFarlin. The Graham twins -- Joey and Stevie -- will both start and the coaching staff sees them as hidden gems on the wings. This team will defend and if the Grahams produce, it score well enough to be a tough out come March.
Wake Forest ESPN/USA Today: 21st AP: 20th	The Demon Deacons of '02-03 weren't all about Josh Howard. Sure, losing the ACC player of the year will be a hit, but Wake has plenty of good company returning. The main addition is point guard Chris Paul, who will allow more freedom for Justin Gray. Forwards Eric Williams and Vytas Danelius are as crafty and gritty as they come. The Demon Deacons have the bitter taste of losing in the second round, like Stanford and Oklahoma State, which is only added motivation.
Cincinnati ESPN/USA Today: t19th AP: 18th	The Bearcats have the Final Four potential if the talent lives up to its billing. JUCO transfer Robert Whaley was one of the top high school players before he got into trouble with the law and couldn't get into Missouri. Remember, James White was one of the top recruits at Florida. Power player Jason Maxiell and guards Field Williams, Nick Williams and Armein Kirkland give the Bearcats one of the quickest perimeter lineups under Bob Huggins. The Bearcats will win a lot of games with their schedule (no tough non-conference games until Feb. 15 at Wake Forest) to give them a high enough seed for a NCAA run. Losing to Gonzaga in last year's first round is just added incentive this season.
Maryland ESPN/USA Today: 25th AP: NR	The Terps aren't getting much preseason respect and that's fine with Gary Williams. This is a good team to take a flyer on in the preseason. Maryland doesn't have the vets to make a run, or so it seems. But this is the type of team that could get hot come March if the underclassmen finally mature under Williams. The roster is loaded with youthful players -- nine of 10 are freshmen or sophomores. The only senior is forward Jamar Smith. The rest of the roster is filled with players who will play loose and give Williams plenty of energy on the court. This group is talented with John Gilchrist a ready-made point guard, shooters in Nik Caner-Medley and Chris McCray and a collection of freshmen who could mesh and provide enough quickness for Williams to press. D.J. Strawberry, Mike Jones and Hassan Fofana all have the potential to be impact players by February.

Five Who Could Fall
Kentucky ESPN/USA Today: 9th AP: 11th	The Wildcats could be a burly Big East team in the heart of the SEC. They'll go with a tough frontline of Chuck Hayes and Erik Daniels and they've got the reliable guards in Cliff Hawkins and Gerald Fitch. This team will rely on its defense but might struggle at times to rebound. It's still an unknown as to what they'll get out of Kelenna Azubuike and Antwain Barbour -- two players who must produce for this team to rise. Kentucky is a preseason top 10 team, so it's easy to see it sliding. No one is quite sure what to expect from the freshmen centers in Shagari Alleyne and Lukasz Obrzut. Kentucky won't drop too far, but expecting this team to get to the Final Four is probably a reach.
Missouri ESPN/USA Today: 6th AP: 5th	The Tigers have the NCAA cloud hanging over the program. That's enough for a potential downfall. But the other factor is that this team hasn't played as the favorite. Handling that moniker will be different for this squad. Missouri coach Quin Snyder has done a remarkable job of coaching the Tigers in March the past few seasons after getting beat up in the Big 12. But the pressure is on Missouri to be the top team in the Big 12 and a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. That's a lot to ask of a team that still has question marks, such as: Will it have the right chemistry when Jason Conley is eligible? Who backs up Jimmy McKinney at the point? Can Rickey Paulding and/or Arthur Johnson carry this team to a Final Four? Missouri isn't likely to fall out of the top 25, but there is the potential for a slide if there are distractions on and/or off the court.
North Carolina ESPN/USA Today: 10th AP: 9th	The Tar Heels are incredibly fragile. Roy Williams is trying to tone down the rhetoric of the Tar Heels being a top 10 preseason team. These Heels are essentially the same as last season's group, but with a new coaching staff. If everyone is healthy, and that's a big if, then this team has the talent to make a deep run in March. But there is no, repeat no backup, for Raymond Felton at the point and Sean May inside. David Noel's injury showed how vulnerable this team's depth is inside. The power wing could end up being a difference-maker, but he's on the bench for nearly two months with a thumb injury. Williams will make a difference, but this team may be too thin to make it to San Antonio, let alone stay in the top 10.
Oklahoma ESPN/USA Today: 15th AP: 14th	The Sooners are a trendy pick to stay in the top 15 because of their past history. But Oklahoma is relying heavily on young players like point guard Drew Lavender, and wings Brandon Foust and Jimmy Tobias, to lead them back to the NCAAs. Sure, Kevin Bookout, Jabahri Brown, Jason Detrick, DeAngelo Alexander and Johnnie Gilbert are a nice returning nucleus, but this team can't easily replace the leadership of Hollis Price, Quannas White and Ebi Ere. There will be a transition period. And there is also no obvious 3-point threat. Alexander is the first option behind the arc, but shot 35 percent on 3s last season. The Sooners could go through some scoring droughts, and if that becomes too common, expecting them to get to the Final Four isn't wise.
Louisville ESPN/USA Today: 16th AP: 16th	The Cardinals will find out how much they relied on Reece Gaines to bail them out if and when a defender locks up Francisco Garcia. Garcia had a solid freshman season in part because of the attention drawn by Gaines. But he's gone, leaving Garcia to create more on his own. The Cardinals will defend, that much is certain. But this team may be too much of a work in progress to make a significant run and stay in the top 16. Taquan Dean has to be a leader at the point and Rick Pitino must get significant production out of newcomers like Nate Daniels and Brandon Jenkins. The Cardinals will be a factor, but they may have a tough time fending off Memphis and Marquette for second place behind Cincinnati in Conference USA.