ESPN Men's Basketball

These guys are that important. And even if just one of the three teams above doesn't make the NCAA Tournament next season, that's one more than teams in a similar predicament a year ago.

Losing high school All-Americans to the draft isn't new. But every school that lost a signed high school senior to the 2003 draft still made the 2004 NCAA Tournament.

Memphis danced without Kendrick Perkins, and Mississippi State won the SEC West without Travis Outlaw. And while Arizona stumbled a few more times than expected, the Wildcats were still NCAA-worthy without Ndudi Ebi.

Sure, there were extenuating circumstances in each case. And, no, it wasn't easy. Memphis had to change its style of play. The Bulldogs got lucky when Baylor's Lawrence Roberts was allowed to transfer without sitting out a season. Arizona didn't have a backup to Channing Frye after Isaiah Fox went out with a season-ending knee injury.

Robert Swift's stock has risen to the point USC can't count on him honoring his signature this summer.

But they still made the tournament.

Would they have all been better off with these players? Probably.

But they're ultimately judged on first getting to the NCAAs. Each did. Period.

What makes this spring's group of high school seniors entering the draft different is the long-lasting effect each could have on the schools they shunned.

Dwight Howard has already declared for the draft and could be one of the top two picks on June 24. But the high school senior never committed, let alone signed with a Division I school.

Josh Smith has also declared, but was once the headliner of Indiana's recruiting class. The Hoosiers still have name recruits in Robert Vaden and D.J. White, and just added big man Robert Rothbart to offset the loss of Smith. But Rothbart is more project then projected lottery.

Indiana returns Bracey Wright in the backcourt and Patrick Ewing Jr. up front. But might not have enough -- without Smith -- to get the Hoosiers back to the NCAAs after finishing 14-15 last season.

Swift, who shined in several recent all-star games to see his draft stock soar, is being bandied about as a potential lottery pick. If that's the case, the Trojans know they'll likely lose the 7-foot center to the NBA before he ever plays a minute for them.

Underclassmen, which includes high school seniors, have until May 10 to declare for the draft. And as long as they don't sign with an agent, can return to school by withdrawing their names by June 17 -- a week before the draft. High school seniors can also go through the draft, get selected and still go to school unlike college underclassmen. But if they do that then the NBA team owns their rights at their draft position until a year after their eligibility expires. Of course, they can't sign with an agent and still retain their amateur status.

USC finished 13-15 last season, but the Trojans return the core of their team and all but their top scorer in Desmon Farmer. The Trojans still return Jeff McMillan, Nick Curtis, Rory O'Neil, Errick and Derrick Craven, Rodrick and Lodrick Stewart and Greg Guenther Jr. But they need a big man like Swift.

"We're thinking that we're not going to have him," USC coach Henry Bibby said. "He's a 'program turner.' He would make a difference. But we're going about our business. We're not bad if we don't get him, but if we do, then he takes you to another level.

"He's a seven-footer who can block shots, score inside and outside. That's something you can't teach and that's why he's an NBA prospect."

The Trojans find themselves in something of a postseason rut after missing out on the NCAAs the past two seasons. This is a program, remember, that appeared on the rise and ready to challege for Pac-10 supremecy after reaching the Elite Eight in 2001 and dancing again in 2002.

Those two seasons put Bibby in a position to court a player like Swift, who has remained loyal to the Trojans throughout the past year. Bibby said Swift wanted to play for USC for years and he hopes he gets a chance to coach him. But he knows that each day that goes by without a decision means Swift could be thinking more about leaving than playing for USC.

"He's going back and forth," Bibby said. "He wants to play in the NBA. If he comes here, we'll build everything around him. We'll do whatever it takes to get him to the next level."

It's hard for the Trojans to prepare for 2004-05 without Swift, even though USC never actually had the Bakersfield, Calif., recruit in the fold. USC won't find many 7-footers this spring, let alone those with the skills Swift brings to the court. Bibby expects signee power forward Emanuel Willis to have an impact, but not as much as Swift.

Arkansas is doing its best while dealing with losing Jefferson. The Razorbacks signed three other big men in this recruiting class, hoping that they would add Jefferson to class. It may still happen, but with Jefferson declaring for the draft Monday and not hiring an agent, the Hogs still just don't know.

Stan Heath's third year in Fayetteville should be the turn season for the Razorbacks' head coach. He still could make a run to the NCAAs without Jefferson, but he also could be a difference-maker because of his ability to score with relative ease inside.

Heath visited Jefferson last week and said Jefferson is extremely torn on what to do. Jefferson expressed that same feeling at the Jordan Capital Classic at Maryland two weeks ago.

"With Al we jump to another level," Heath said. "We have the ingredients to be a postseason team and be one of the 65 teams. We have a chance for that."

Arkansas signed forwards Charles Thomas, Darian Townes and Steven Hill for this season and the Hogs also return top scorers Jonathon Modica, Ronnie Brewer, Eric Ferguson and Olu Famutimi. But the Razorbacks still won only four games in the SEC, finishing 12-16 overall. The Razorbacks need that special player, something Jefferson could become next season.

"Al has the ability to give us a monumental jump in our conference and in our season," Heath said. "He's strong, explosive and he wants to win. He said that he believes we can go to the Final Four next year."

There are now six signed high school seniors who will likely wind up in the draft. But while each could make their college choice a championship contender, none dictate the NCAA futures of the teams they aren't likely to play for next season.

If North Carolina doesn't get J.R. Smith on campus (he too declared Monday for the draft without hiring an agent), the Tar Heels will be short a backup guard entering the season. UNC was more concerned about keeping current Heels on campus, rather than adding the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game. The return of Raymond Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Jawad Williams, Jackie Manuel, Melvin Scott and David Noel made UNC a top 10 team. The addition of signees Marvin Williams and Quentin Thomas make next year's team a Final Four contender.

And don't weep for Louisville when Sebastian Telfair declares for the draft on Tuesday. Barring injuries, the Cardinals will be a factor in Conference USA and an NCAA Tournament team. Louisville has its key guys returning in Francisco Garcia and Taquan Dean. Yes, Rick Pitino lost out on Rajon Rondo (Kentucky) while waiting for Telfair, but he's actively going after point Churchill Odia, who once committed to Xavier, now that Telfair is likely gone.

"It's a foregone conclusion that he's going to go pro," Louisville assistant Vince Taylor said of Telfair. "We're prepared not to have him."

But, again, the Louisville program won't be devastated by that loss.

Duke, meanwhile, could still be a Final Four team without point guard Shaun Livingston, who declared for the draft Monday. Sure, the 6-7 point guard would have given the Blue Devils an elite player. But if Livingston is a lottery pick -- and there's a good chance he will be -- the Blue Devils know he won't come to Durham.

So, with both Livingston and Luol Deng in the draft, Duke is down to eight scholarship players. But it's not a bad eight: Shelden Williams, Shavlik Randolph, J.J. Redick, Sean Dockery and Daniel Ewing as the starting five, with Lee Melchionni, and incoming freshmen DeMarcus Nelson and David McClure coming off the bench.

"We'll still be good whether we get Shaun or not, but he could be one of those guys who pushes us over the top," Duke assistant coach Chris Collins said before Livingston's declaration. "The one thing high majors have had to do recently is prepare not to get a player, or to not have him for more than a year."

Duke had two seniors -- Chris Duhon and Nick Horvath -- on this year's Final Four team. Losing Deng is a big dent, but the Blue Devils can recover enough to remain not only a threat in a outrageously deep ACC, but on the national scene.

And one thing Duke isn't going to do this spring is rush out and sign someone else now that Livingston has said he's not coming. Collins said Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski isn't a fan of handing out the full allotment of 13 scholarships.

"You can't build a team like you used to," Collins said. "You've got to get players but still be prepared that they'll go pro."

DePaul coach Dave Leitao did just that when he signed Dorell Wright, who said he'll declare for the draft but will only stay in if he's a top 20 pick. If he remains true to his word, expect Wright to be on campus in the fall. The 6-8 forward out of South Kent Prep (Conn.) is considered a borderline first-round pick.

But even if the high-flying Wright passes on DePaul, the Blue Demons have a nucleus that could make another trip to the NCAAs. DePaul returns three of its top five scorers (Drake Diener, Quemont Greer and Sammy Mejia) off a second-round NCAA Tournament team that also adds point guard Aking Elting.

Leitao seems prepared to lose Wright and still be left standing as an NCAA team. The only team since 2001 to miss the NCAAs after losing a signed player was DePaul, who under former coach Pat Kennedy signed Eddy Curry, who declared in 2001. DePaul didn't make the NCAAs in 2002.

Sure Duke could use singee Shaun Livingston, but the Blue Devils will remain a national title contender with or without the 6-7 point guard.

"If he had come, I still may be coaching there," said Kennedy, now the coach at Montana. "If he had come, maybe Bobby Simmons would have stayed too (instead of declaring for the draft). We would have been very, very good."

The longterm effect of a signee declaring and never matriculating is the question that haunts Arizona. The Wildcats weren't ready to lose Ebi after Dennis Latimore had already transferred to Notre Dame.

"It killed us," Arizona associate head coach Jim Rosborough said. "It was devastating. We went out and signed Ivan Radenovic during the season because we were caught without depth. We would have been 50 percent better with Ebi. We don't feel Fox's injury (a meniscal tear in his knee) as much if he were here."

But the Wildcats still made the NCAAs, albeit after finishing third behind Stanford and Washington in the Pac-10, and then losing to Seton Hall in the first round of the NCAAs.

"Winning 20 games and just getting to the tournament isn't what we want to do," Rosborough said. "We recruit every kid telling him he'll have a chance to go to the Final Four. When we lose a signee in the spring to the draft, the effects run much deeper -- even if you make the tournament the following year."

Arizona's depth took another hit last month when sophomore Andre Iguodala declared for the draft and closed the door on a possible return by saying he'd sign with an agent. But, even with the sophomore's departure, the Wildcats are expected to be in the NCAAs again -- two seasons removed from Ebi's decision out of high school.

Memphis coach John Calipari would have played bigger with Perkins this past season, but he adapted to a smaller lineup and made the NCAAs.

"Sometimes these players don't have the affect you think they will because they are freshmen," Calipari said. "There are very few Carmelo Anthonys. We had no time to recover from Kendrick going because it happened so late. We were told he was coming and then he wasn't."

That same thing happened to Florida when Kwame Brown's stock rose during all-star games. He declared and was the top pick in 2001. The Gators couldn't replace him in May but still made the NCAAs in 2002 as a No. 5 seed.

But, over the past five years, no team has felt the sting of singees saying thanks, but no thanks, than Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs lost Jonathan Bender without ever seeing him in a uniform in 1999. The following season, the Bulldogs suffered the only losing season under Rick Stansbury (14-16). Outlaw's decision to leave could have had a major impact on the Bulldogs, but getting Roberts made it moot. Mississippi State was a much better team with Roberts than it ever would have been with Outlaw as the Bulldogs won the SEC West, were a No. 2 seed and Roberts became a Wooden first-team all-American.

Still, Stansbury empathizes with coaches who will go through the angst of losing a signee to the draft this spring.

"We found out about Jonathan right at the end (of the spring) so there was no way to recover that year," Stansbury said. "We wouldn't have recovered as well last season if Lawrence weren't eligible right away.

"It's a huge impact and can have a long-lasting effect. But you can't feel sorry for yourself. You've got to go out quickly and start recruiting again."

That's what USC, Indiana and Arkansas are doing this spring ... just in case.

Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.