ESPN Men's Basketball

Originally Published: December 17, 2004

What does a gaudy record mean?

Email Print Share

By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

There are plenty of teams with impressive records so far this season, but how do we know who's for real?

We're pretty sure Cincinnati, with its talented post duo, isn't a paper tiger. Arizona State? It will be in every game because of, perhaps, the best player in the country. New Mexico? The Lobos have a contend in the Mountain West for a similar reason -- they have one of the nation's most productive players at his position.

But what about teams that haven't been seen nationally, like Kansas State and Texas A&M? There, the gaudy records are probably somewhat transparent.

Sure, the Wildcats (6-0) won at Wyoming in their only game outside of Manhattan (the little one). And we do know that K-State is extremely athletic and one of the more improved teams in the Big 12 under Jim Wooldridge.

But home wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Oakland, Denver and North Dakota State (in addition to Washington State) aren't going to make people stand up and scream about this squad just yet. The Wildcats also play five more non-conference home games and then also play two of their first three in the Big 12 at home.

The result? We'll have to wait until February to see where Kansas State stands before we get too excited about the turnaround.

At Texas A&M, first-year coach Billy Gillispie did the right thing in downgrading the schedule for a rebuilding team. The Aggies didn't win a Big 12 game a year ago, so this team needed some confidence. Getting off to a 7-0 start by beating a host of bad teams, including Division-III Trinity College and NAIA Texas-Permian Basin, isn't such a horrible thing.

Reality will catch up with this squad soon enough.

That might not be the case, however, at Cincinnati, Arizona State and New Mexico.

The Bearcats did beat a very underrated Northern Iowa in double overtime (just ask Iowa State and Iowa how good the Panthers are on any court). The Bearcats blew out Purdue by 20 in Indianapolis, won at Dayton by 10, and crushed Vanderbilt by 16. OK, we know what you're saying, how could the Bearcats (6-0) be that impressive when none of these teams are NCAA locks and the best one might be a MVC team?

"We're a legit 6-0 because we've been guarding people," Cincinnati associate head coach Andy Kennedy said. "Take out our poor shooting (28.6 percent) against Northern Iowa and we're shooting a much higher percentage (it jumps from 42.1 to 46.3 percent). All of our wins are quality wins."

The reality is that Cincinnati has a great shot to enter a showdown against Illinois on Dec. 31 at 11-0. The game is in Las Vegas in a holiday tournament with a set round-robin. This is a matchup that should and could be in a dome at an NCAA Tournament venue, but will be at a high school gym in Sin City.

"At the end of the season, you'll see how many of these wins will be quality wins, because we still see Northern Iowa and Vanderbilt as NCAA teams and Dayton is still going to be good and so is Valparaiso."

The Bearcats still lack inside depth, but they do have some studs in the post in Jason Maxiell and Eric Hicks. And they could add a big-time scorer, according to Kennedy, if freshman Vincent Banks gets eligible in the coming weeks.

Cincinnati has been the afterthought in its final season of Conference USA, pushed aside in the preseason's hype for Louisville and Memphis. Yet, the Bearcats, now ranked No. 17, could still win the league over those two, Marquette, UAB and Charlotte.

No team was undersold in the Pac-10 as much as Arizona State. This squad was picked last by many, despite having not only the top scoring forward in the country, but maybe the national player of the year in junior forward Ike Diogu (24.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.8 bpg on 65.1 percent shooting and 90.1 percent free throws).

"He's the best player in the country," Arizona State coach Rob Evans said. "I've coached a long time and never had a player like this one. We're going to be in every game and have a shot because of him. We have a place to go to score and get key rebounds."

Arizona State's only loss was to UTEP in Las Vegas in a holiday tournament over Thanksgiving. Like Cincinnati, the Sun Devils own a win over Vanderbilt (also in Las Vegas) and won at Temple by three (just as close a game as Wake Forest had with the Owls). The rest of the wins aren't much to yell about, although a few were closer than they would have liked (one point over Cal-State Northridge and seven over Fairleigh Dickinson).

But the Pac-10 is showing considerable signs of weakness, making the Sun Devils a player throughout the season to get back to the Dance after a one-year hiatus.

"How good we are is still to be determined," Evans said. "We're going to step up the competition here soon. We're still young (a total of eight freshmen and sophomores)."

The Sun Devils are getting better balance with Steve Moore adding a dozen points a game, Bryson Krueger chipping in 8.5 and Kevin Kruger, the son of UNLV coach Lon Kruger, shooting 45.5 percent on 3s. Serge Angounou also is chipping in nearly seven points and six boards a game, but they need more out of JC guard Tyrone Jackson (3 points and 1.5 assists) to feel more comfortable.

The Sun Devils play five of their first seven Pac-10 games on the road, including three straight at Arizona, Stanford and Cal. We'll know if this team is a pretender or a contender by mid-January, but they should be in every game because of Diogu.

New Mexico won't just be in games because of Danny Granger. The Lobos will win games because of him. New Mexico's credibility nationally is up for review this week with home games against Tennessee on Saturday and Wake Forest on Wednesday.

"At home, we've got a chance to beat anybody," New Mexico coach Ritchie McKay said of the Lobos' 9-1 this season. The only loss was at Oregon, by a mere four points, in a game the Lobos led by two at the half. The Lobos won one road game, at New Mexico State on Dec. 4.

"We've won 21 of 23 at home," McKay said. "We've got a group that has a chance to be very good. We've got a chance to get New Mexico back."

As in back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999. In the Mountain West, Utah has had its impressive moments (like almost beating Arizona) but UNLV and Air Force have struggled lately, making the Lobos look like a serious contender to win the league.

The main reason is Granger. Sure, the Lobos have some pieces around him like Mark Walters (11.1 ppg, 41.1 percent on 3s), and David Chiotti (11 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Troy DeVries (9.7 ppg). But the team's chances rest solely on Granger, the 6-foot-8 Bradley transfer who is looking more and more like a first-round draft pick with his 18.7 points, 10.0 boards, 1.8 blocks and 2.7 steals on 56.1 percent shooting (50 percent from the arc).

"The most improved player on our team is Danny Granger," McKay said. "The supporting cast is better, but he's one of the best players in the country."

Granger got into foul trouble often last year, averaging 3.1 whistles a game. He's down to 1.7 a game this season. So, the more he's on the floor, the more likely the Lobos can win.

"His shot selection is better, too," McKay said. "He wants to leave here with a legacy, like Kenny Thomas or Michael Cooper. Lobo fans have endeared themselves to him."

They'll really love him if he can get the Lobos back to the tournament. The Lobos, like most of these teams with gaudy records, can find out if they're for real or fraudulent in the coming weeks.

Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. His Weekly Word on college basketball is updated Fridays throughout the year.