ESPN Men's Basketball

Updated: May 2, 2006, 1:01 PM ET

Gators, Tar Heels top this preseason's bracket

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By Joe Lunardi
Special to ESPN Insider
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A year ago at this time, yours truly managed to post a bracket that included neither the defending NCAA champion (North Carolina) nor its upcoming winner (Florida). It's that kind of incisive analysis one can only find on the pages of ESPN.com.

All kidding aside, there were perfectly defensible reasons for both omissions. The Tar Heels had lost the top seven players from their 2005 national championship team, not to mention well over half the band and dance team, the school mascot, as well as the program's official scorer and clock operator. No way Carolina was going back to the tournament, right?

That the Gators would capture the 2006 crown was even more unlikely. Their leading returning scorer -- Corey Brewer -- averaged a nondescript 7.5 points per game in 2004-05. Three other guys who would eventually start for Florida in 2005-06 -- Al Horford, Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green -- averaged 14.3 points combined.

And did we mention that the 2006 Final Four Most Outstanding Player -- Joakim Noah -- came into this season having never started a Division I game? His totals in 2004-05 were a scant 3.9 points, 1.0 rebounds and 9.4 minutes per game.

One thing's for sure, though: I learn from my mistakes. Florida and North Carolina are No. 1 and No. 1A in the 2006-07 bracket. The Gators are apparently going to return their championship nucleus, and the Tar Heels are adding another boatload of outstanding talent.

The rest of the bracket? Let's just say there are shifting assumptions almost daily with respect to who is coming back to school and who is turning pro. For now, in addition to those underclassmen who have already signed with an agent, here are my assumptions heading into the non-senior decision period:

Leaving: Kyle Lowry (Villanova), Jordan Farmar (UCLA), Josh Boone (UConn), Shawne Williams and Darius Washington (Memphis), Ron Brewer (Arkansas) and Patrick O'Bryant (Bradley).

Returning: P.J. Tucker and Daniel Gibson (Texas), Arron Afflalo (UCLA), Mustafa Shakur (Arizona), Aaron Gray (Pitt), Carl Elliott and J.R. Pinnock (George Washington), Nick Fazekas (Nevada), Leon Powe (Cal), Quincy Douby (Rutgers), Brandon Heath (San Diego State), Blake Schilb (Loyola-Chicago) and Renaldo Balkman (South Carolina).

Check back after June 18 -- the withdrawal date for underclassmen for the June 28 NBA draft -- for our next update.

Joe Lunardi is the resident bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. Comments may be sent to bracketology@comcast.net.