ESPN Men's Basketball

Originally Published: November 11, 2003

Annual preseason hits and misses

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By Joe Lunardi
ESPN Insider
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Just for fun, I recently took a look at last year's preseason bracket. It was done for Midnight Madness, not the start of the regular season (like this one), and the results were predictably mixed.

Six of the projected No. 1 and No. 2 seeds -- Kansas, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Florida and Texas -- ended up where we thought. We missed a little on UConn (No. 5 seed) and a lot on Alabama (No. 10).

Other "hits" included Duke (projected and actual No. 3 seed, Final Four preseason by many), Marquette (projected No. 4 seed, finished No. 3 on their way to New Orleans) and LSU (projected and actual No. 8, not ranked preseason). And let's not forget being the only one to leave North Carolina out of the tourney altogether.

There were some big "misses," too.

We slotted Syracuse, the eventual national champions, as a No. 10 seed. We were also pretty high on Southern Cal, Mississippi and Villanova, all of whom finished with sub-.500 records. And let's not even discuss UCLA, which went from a projected No. 4 seed to nearly missing the Pac-10 tournament -- never mind the NCAAs.

The point of the exercise is simple: Take these projections not with a grain of salt, but with an entire shaker. Injuries, momentum and impact newcomers will all play a part in taking these projections, well, apart. And sometimes I'll just be flat-out wrong.

But there are at least two things you can take to the bank. Every year there are teams that are dramatically overrated because of a hot spell the previous March. And every year someone's season-long excellence is overlooked because of an unlucky bounce or a bad day in the tournament.

Consider the case of Michigan State and Florida. Long-time readers know I love the Spartans, mainly because any team that defends and rebounds with such zeal is rarely out of a game. And State really came on at the end of last year, marching to the Elite Eight despite double-digit losses.

So which is it? The Michigan State that waxed the Gators (and also edged Colorado and Maryland) in the NCAAs? Or the Spartans who were just 10-6 in a so-so Big Ten? The same Spartans who lose 19.3 points and 11.6 rebounds per game from a frontcourt-oriented system? Doesn't anyone remember that the inside savior, the admittedly skilled Paul Davis, played just 17.8 minutes per game? Or that Chris Hill is an ordinary (at best, 1.5 apg) point guard?

History strongly suggests that the 13 losses are a much better barometer for this season than State's three wins in March. I could be very wrong, of course, and Tom Izzo knows his club a whole lot better than I do. But the Spartans being an obvious preseason Final Four pick, much less reaching San Antonio, flies in the face of any truly objective analysis.

On the other hand, we humbly present Florida. Yes, the Gators were dreadful (in their own state, no less) against Michigan State in the NCAA second round. And, yes, the Gators lost all-around contributor Matt Bonner to the pros. But does anyone really think their 25 wins and sizzling 14.9 ASM (Adjusted Scoring Margin) are less meaningful than one 40-minute blowout?

If Christian Drejer is half of what everyone said last year, Florida is loaded. The Brett Nelson mystery is over, Matt Walsh is Duke's Mike Dunleavy reincarnated and the young talent is, as usual, overflowing.

Florida's 2002-03 losses were unbeaten Kentucky (twice), Stanford (Pre-NIT), at Tennessee, at Georgia and LSU in the SEC tournament. The only other defeat, at West Virginia, was by a bucket. No Toledo's in the bunch.

You don't have to believe me, but the numbers are the numbers. And that's what makes Bracketology great. Welcome back!

Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He may be reached at bracketology@comcast.net. Also, click here to send Joe a question for possible use on ESPNEWS.