ESPN Men's Basketball

Originally Published: December 20, 2007

Texas has maintained offensive efficiency even without the high-scoring Durant

Comment Email Print Share

By Andy Glockner
ESPN.com
Archive

Could Texas actually be better without Kevin Durant?

It sounds like basketball blasphemy, considering Durant's 25.8 points and 11.1 rebounds per game last season redefined what is possible for any major conference player, let alone a freshman. He destroyed the Big 12 scoring record. He was the runaway national player of the year. His combination of perimeter skill, length and relentlessness made him the most uniquely dominant college player in ages.

[+] Enlarge

AP Photo/Deborah CannonD.J. Augustin has been amazingly efficient on offense and is creating for his teammates.

Now, he's chasing NBA rookie of the year honors with the Seattle SuperSonics, and you're supposed to believe the Longhorns might be improved? As crazy as it sounds, it's possible, even if Texas coach Rick Barnes isn't willing to go there quite yet.

"I wouldn't say we are better," he said. "I don't think you can say, when you take 25 points out of your lineup, that you've gotten better. But it goes back to what we've been talking about all year. All of the players are better. If Kevin was back, he would be better than he was last year. We have more balance in some ways. I don't know what the statistics say, but we're a year older and more mature."

The statistics say they are better at this point. That has less to do with Durant than it does with the age and development of those he left behind. Remember, Durant led a team that started three other freshmen and a sophomore. That made his achievements even more impressive, but that also meant it was reasonable to think the returning starters could improve with experience. Almost uniformly, they have, and a better bench is providing Barnes with different options.

This preseason, Barnes thought it was possible the Horns could be better defensively and on the glass with a more traditional lineup that didn't feature a 6-foot-9 forward roaming the perimeter. So far, both parts of that assessment have been marginally true. The surprise is how potent and balanced the offense is without Durant.

It's particularly impressive because Texas was a statistically elite offense last season when Durant was one of the most deserving "high-usage" players in recent memory. According to kenpom.com, Durant took more than 34 percent of all Texas shots while he was on the floor, the 13th-highest rate in Division I. He did so while shooting 47 percent from the field, 82 percent from the free-throw line and 40 percent from the arc. Combine the extremely high usage with the excellent percentages, and colleague Kyle Whelliston's Basketball State efficiency rating system judged Durant to be the nation's most productive player last season.

His individual success, though, clearly limited some of his teammates. Here is a snapshot of Durant's team, sorted by the percentage of the Horns' shots by a player while he was on the floor.

(Stats taken from kenpom.com and bbstate.com. Points Per Weighted Shot accounts for free-throw attempts and the value of 3s. %Poss is the percentage of a team's possessions used by a player when he was on the floor. It differs from %Shots in that it includes the impact of turnovers, free throws, assists and offensive rebounds.)

While Durant took shots and used possessions at a rate rarely seen at the college level, it's worth noting that Abrams and Augustin were statistically comparable overall shooters based on PPWS. Yes, Abrams was a much less consistent scorer who relied heavily on 3s, and Augustin's shot rate was more in line with that of a complementary player, but the efficiency was there.

The big questions entering this season were whether their rates would hold up with a greater share of the shots, and whether the supporting cast could improve its pedestrian production. The answer to both of those questions, so far, has been yes.

Essentially, Texas has gone from one of the more glamorous one-man shows in D-I to a model that, on paper, very strongly resembles Butler, the new-age paragon for team offense. And much like the Bulldogs' backcourt of A.J. Graves and Mike Green, Abrams has evolved into the lead shot-taker, but Augustin is the guy who controls the ball the most (and gets to the foul line much more often). That's a crucial difference from last season, when Durant overwhelmingly used the most possessions and took the most shots.

The big key to Texas' success so far has been Augustin's play, which is at a Naismith Award level. With so many more possessions in his hands, Augustin's elite scoring/passing threat is that much more dangerous for opponents. He is scoring close to 20 points a game, and his 1.8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is a large part of why the Horns' overall assists are up, turnovers are down and offensive efficiency is higher than last season's terrific rate.

"When you have a point like like D.J., it makes life easier on the court, because he knows what he wants and determines our offensive flow," said Atchley, a junior forward who is having a breakout season of his own. "When you have a flow and the chemistry we have as a team, it makes it hard to guard."

[+] Enlarge

AP Photo/Rich SchultzConnor Atchley's surprising improvement this season has helped make up for the loss of Kevin Durant.

Indeed, with Augustin now heavily on the ball, Atchley has made a rather unusual leap from fringe guy to incredibly productive starter, while Abrams has blossomed as a full-purpose scorer. Not only is Abrams still knocking down 3s at an excellent clip ( 41.4 percent), but his 2-point shooting -- an area in which Abrams said he worked extensively during the offseason -- has improved from 30 percent to almost 50 percent this season.

While the two other key players from last season -- Mason and James -- are about the same statistically, having frontcourt players such as Alexis Wangmene and Dexter Pittman in the rotation creates more flexibility. James, who was buried inside by necessity last season, showed in Texas' 63-61 win Dec. 2 at then-No. 1 UCLA that he can step out and make key mid-range jumpers.

Is there any reason to think this won't continue? Maybe not quite at this level, but Texas' offense has utterly shredded all but two opponents this season, and the Longhorns still were above average in those other two games (which included that road trip to UCLA). The Horns also are holding out hope that heralded freshman big man Gary Johnson will be medically cleared to play this season; he would be another formidable frontcourt option.

So what is Texas' upside? Will the Longhorns be able to make it further than the second round to which Durant led them last season? It's at least worth pondering.

Andy Glockner is a regular contributor to ESPN.com's college basketball coverage and is the host of the ESPNU College Basketball Insider podcast. He can be reached at bubblewatch@gmail.com.