Wednesday, March 19, 2003 Updated: March 15, 6:53 PM ET
CSI Bristol: Breaking down the bracket
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
The NCAA Tournament bracket has been in the Bristol evidence room for 48 hours. It's gone through a complete Common Sense Index examination. And, hammer the selection committee all you want for the BYU fiasco, but in the minds of CSI investigators, they did get something right.
Here is Andy Katz's briefing on the CSI Bristol findings heading into the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament:
No. 1 seeds
All four No. 1 seeds are deserving and should be in New Orleans. Here are his reasons:
Midwest: Kentucky
Best team, especially defensively, in the field of 64. On a roll and showing no signs of slowing down.
South: Texas
The Longhorns have the top player in the field in T.J. Ford and he could carry the Longhorns to the Final Four.
West: Arizona
Still the most talented team in the field, and is now playing with a chip on its shoulder after feeling slighted with a strong region, not to mention Kentucky being tabbed the favorite.
East: Oklahoma
Banged up, but has the toughest player in the field in Hollis Price. He's this season's Juan Dixon and could lead the Sooners back to the Final Four (remember they were ESPN.com's preseason No. 1).
Dangerous Draws
While not on CSI Bristol's top 10 list to reach New Orleans, these teams could pave the way for others by knocking off No. 1 seeds.
Dayton: The Flyers got a tremendous draw as a No. 4 seed in the Midwest, with winnable games against Tulsa and either Wisconsin or Weber State in the second round.
Illinois: Bill Self has these Illini playing well at the right time yet again. The Big Ten tournament title wasn't a fluke and as a No. 4 seed out West, Illinois could be big trouble for Arizona in the regional semifinals.
Missouri: Quin Snyder has this team playing well at the right time for the second consecutive season. Travon Bryant and Arthur Johnson are a formidable frontline and the sixth-seeded Tigers could be trouble in the Midwest.
Duke: Winning the much-maligned ACC tourney should account for something. and J.J. Redick is a sharp enough shooter to get hot for a few rounds.
Kansas: The easy thing to do would be dump on the Jayhawks for their Big 12 tourney loss, but this team is too experienced to fall early.
Something To Prove?
It's time for these teams to put up or shut up.
|  | | A No. 2 seed in the East, Josh Howard and Wake haven't gotten out of the second round the past two years. |
Gonzaga: The Bulldogs banked on their WCC regular season title and non-conference schedule as being a reason they should have received a bid. The committee agreed, and if the Zags can get past Cincinnati in the most intriguing 8-9 game, it may just return to its Cinderella roots against Arizona out West.
Southern Illinois: The Salukis were protected by the committee after winning their regular-season title, but losing to Creighton in the MVC title game. It doesn't mean much if this Sweet 16 team of a year ago loses in the first round to Missouri.
Creighton: Speaking of the Bluejays, the burden is on this year's marquee mid-major to live up to its No. 6 seed. They got a potentially great draw in MAC champion Central Michigan. But like Gonzaga last season, when it was a No. 6 and drew Wyoming, Creighton can't blow this chance to advance in the Dance.
Butler: The Bulldogs were rewarded for their Horizon League championship. But they can't squander the goodwill by bowing out badly as they did in the Horizon title game. The committee didn't do Butler any favors with a tough matchup against a surging Mississippi State out of the SEC.
Wake Forest: Josh Howard was the easy choice for ACC player of the year. But the pressure is on Howard and the Demon Deacons for a good showing. Teams are judged by the NCAAs, not conference play. Wake hasn't been past the second round in two years, and a No. 2 seed can't be bounced in the second round.
Marquette: See above, but replace the ACC with Conference USA. An early flame out in the Midwest for the No. 3 seed Eagles (who lost to Tulsa in last year's first round) could make for a long offseason.
Florida: The mental makeup of this team wasn't good heading into the SEC tournament. The Gators have lost three straight games, but as the No. 2 seed in the South, need to redeem their season with a deep run in the NCAAs.
Notre Dame: The Irish looked like a Final Four team a month ago. Now, losers of five of seven, they skid into the dance. The NCAAs can go two ways for Notre Dame -- really good, or really bad -- as the No. 5 seed in the West.
N.C. State: Boston College can gripe all it wants after beating the Wolfpack in the regular season, but getting sent to the NIT. It's up to N.C. State to prove it deserved its bid (No. 9 in the East) with a win over California in the first round.
Usual Suspects
Like returning to the scene of the crime, it happens every year, so here's where at least one upset will happen again in the 12-5 games.
|  | | Milwaukee-Wisconsin's first NCAA Tournament may last longer than one game. |
Midwest: Weber State over Wisconsin
The Badgers were a disappointment in the Big Ten tourney, bowing out in the first round to Ohio State. Wisconsin can find redemption in the NCAAs, but Weber State has history on its side (see: North Carolina in 1999; Michigan State in '95) and the team this year again that can upset the Badgers. Combine a big-time scorer, Jermaine Boyette, and a friendly audience in Spokane, and the scene is set for an upset.
West: Wisconsin-Milwaukee over Notre Dame
The Panthers will run with the Irish and can score with the Irish. Can they beat the Irish? You bet, if the Panthers defend the 3-point shot and Notre Dame doesn't turn its late-season slump around in Indianapolis.
South: BYU over Connecticut
The crime of the NCAAs isn't where BYU was scheduled to play, but the No. 12 seed the Cougars received as the co-champions of the MWC -- a league ranked higher than the Pac-10. BYU's seeding is lower than the Ivy League (Penn) and Colonial (UNC-Wilmington) champions. If both teams are playing their best, UConn wins. The talent difference is definitely in favor of Connecticut. But the whole BYU mess makes this game more than interesting. And, if the Cougars win in Spokane, the selection committee will be sweating big time Saturday.
Likely Suspects
The clues may not be as obvious, but these games also could produce stunning outcomes.
No. 14 Manhattan vs. No. 3 Syracuse, Boston
The Jaspers have no business winning this game. But it's a game certainly worth watching. Manhattan has the kind of wild team that just might do some damage against the Syracuse zone. Luis Flores is the tournament's leading scorer and could flourish in this game. If it happens, this would be a bigger upset than Manhattan's win over Oklahoma in 1995.
No. 13 San Diego vs. No. 4 Stanford, Spokane
The Toreros have a big man in 6-10, 290-pound Jason Keep who could cause havoc for the Cardinal. Stanford isn't playing nearly as well heading into the Dance as it had in finishing second to Arizona in the Pac-10. Losses to California and USC in the first round of the Pac-10 tourney make this game tantalizing. San Diego is on a roll and its coach Brad Holland is auditioning for the UCLA job.
No. 11 Penn vs. No. 6 Oklahoma State, Boston
The Quakers shoot the 3-pointer as well as any team in the field and can match the Cowboys' athleticism with forwards. It would not be a shock to see Penn in the second round if OSU doesn't defend the Quakers' outside shooters.
No. 11 Central Michigan vs. No. 6 Creighton, Salt Lake City
The Chippewas received little national attention but they've got the best true center in the tournament in Chris Kaman. The Bluejays' weakness is in the middle and Kaman could exploit it throughout the game.
Crazy 8s
|  | | Once again, Luke Ridnour has the Ducks playing their best basketball at tournament time. |
LSU: The Tigers could be the first team to upset a No. 1 seed in the second round down South. LSU is shooting the ball well, can defend, and is as tough as Texas. Look for LSU to punish Purdue in Birmingham.
Oregon: The Ducks are on a roll heading to the Midwest after winning the Pac-10 tournament. Oregon has the Pac-10 player of the year in point Luke Ridnour, who is playing his best basketball. Don't be surprised to see Oregon cruise past Utah in Spokane.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats have the potential to win a game ... when they're on. When this team is off, it can look really bad. The matchup with Gonzaga in Salt Lake City should be one of the toughest games on the slate.
California: If the Bears have Amit Tamir, Richard Midgley, Joe Shipp and Brian Wethers all hitting shots then N.C. State loses in Oklahoma City. Cal can defend the Princeton offense.
Perfect 10?
Look closely at the 7-10 games. There really isn't a difference between the eight teams.
Michigan State vs. Colorado in the South; Saint Joseph's vs. Auburn in the East; Memphis vs. Arizona State in the West; and Indiana vs. Alabama in the Midwest. No one in CSI Bristol will be surprised if the 10s win every game. Don't call these upsets. The seeds in these games are a wash, possibly closer than any other grouping.
Something's Not Right
Two teams with major issues heading into the first week.
Utah: Britton Johnsen's health (mono) is a major concern for Utah. If he were able to go, then the No. 9 Utes' chances of taking out Oregon in the Midwest would have increased dramatically. Instead, Utah will need exceptional play from its freshmen and center Tim Frost.
Pittsburgh: This is a team with Final Four potential. But nagging injuries to Chevy Troutman and Brandin Knight could prevent the Panthers from reaching their true potential. Don't be surprised to see UCLA athletic director Dan Guererro in the Gaylord Center or Metrodome stands, watching Ben Howland throughout the tourney.
Eliminated Early
From first-timers to familiar NCAA teams, some had no chance of moving on as soon as the bracket was announced.
Utah State: Stew Morrill is the best coach in the tournament who won't last past the first round. The Aggies drew Kansas in round one as a No. 15 seed. Morrill is one of the best coaches in the country, but coaches one of the least covered teams. Morrill's true talents won't be on display because he didn't get a game the Aggies could win like he did when Utah State beat Ohio State in a 12-5 game two years ago.
Tulsa: Three WAC tourney wins on their own court, without regular season champion Fresno State in town, says the No. 13 seed Golden Hurricane isn't ready for primetime against Dayton.
Vermont: Maybe the best story of the tournament, but Catamounts first appearance in 103 years means playing Arizona. Ouch.
Wagner: Once again, good copy. Dereck Whittenburg coaches Wagner into the tournament 20 years after winning the title with N.C. State. But Pittsburgh will make it a short stay for the 15th-seeded Seahawks.
Purdue: Drawing LSU in the first round was probably the worst matchup the Boilermakers could have hoped for as a No. 9 seed.
Colorado State: Great MWC tourney run to the NCAAs. But drawing Duke out West means no chance.
Western Kentucky: Dennis Felton has done a tremendous coaching job, but the No. 13 seed Hilltoppers don't have the quickness to match Illinois in Indy.
IUPUI: Ron Hunter created a SportsCenter moment for the ages by winning the Mid-Con tourney title. But beating Kentucky just simply won't happen.
Sam Houston State: Florida will get healthy, in a hurry, against this squad.
Troy State: A tempting darkhorse? We say no way the Trojans hang with David West and his X Men in round one.
East Tennessee State: Ed DeChellis is a legit candidate to coach Penn State next season, despite what happens in the matchup with Wake Forest.
Austin Peay: Beating Memphis to open the season won't mean much against Louisville in what will be the Governors' last game.
South Carolina State: The Sooners may be banged up, but not badly enough to lose to Cy Alexander's crew.
A Peek At Round Two
Here are the prime tickets to grab for the second round.
|  | | Royal Ivey will have his work cut out for him guarding Carmelo Anthony. |
South: LSU vs. Texas, Birmingham
This could be the best second-round game simply because of the physical style of both teams and LSU's ability to pull off a major upset. The Tigers have senior leaders and a coach who is as hungry as any in this field.
South: Maryland vs. Xavier, Nashville: We stay in the same region, but a different town, to see if the Terps' size inside can deal with David West. Maryland has to also defend Romain Sato on the perimeter to pull off this win. Xavier goes into this potential game as the favorite in seed only. Maryland has the experience.
West: Kansas vs. Arizona State/Memphis, Oklahoma City: Whichever team the Jayhawks play will give them a tough game. Both the Tigers and Sun Devils have the monster in the middle to compete with Nick Collison and Jeff Graves. ASU's Ike Diogu and Memphis' Chris Massie are immovable in the post. Don't be surprised to see this game go down to the final shot, regardless of the matchup.
West: Gonzaga/Cincinnati vs. Arizona, Salt Lake City: The Wildcats could have trouble with either team. Cincinnati can play physical. Gonzaga is hungry for its shot at the Wildcats. Remember, the Zags thought they would get Arizona last season, but Wyoming had other ideas.
Midwest: Oregon vs. Kentucky, Nashville: The Ducks have one great player in Ridnour who could cause problems for Kentucky. Keeping track of Luke Jackson will test the Wildcats' defense. The problem for Oregon is the Ducks don't have anyone who can defend Marquis Estill, Chuck Hayes or Jules Camara in the post.
East: Louisville vs. Mississippi State: Is Don Jackson sponsoring this potential second-round game? The Birmingham attorney represented Louisville's Marvin Stone and Mississippi State's Mario Austin in their respective eligibility fights against the NCAA. Wonder who he would cheer for?
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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