It's seems only fitting that on the 20th anniversary of North Carolina State's magical run to the 1983 national championship, a record seven first-timers are in this year's Dance.

Now comes the obvious question: Can Troy State, IUPUI, Sam Houston State, Wisconsin-Mlwaukee, Wagner, UNC-Asheville or Vermont become a 2003 Cinderella story?

You bet.

Win the national champions? Well, that's a different story.

Remember, Jim Valvano's boys were a No. 6 seed when they knocked off No. 1 Houston in Albuquerque. And while the upset is among college basketball's biggest -- if not the biggest -- ACC teams with a single-digit seed these days aren't what we're watching.

As for any Cinderella story ending in New Orleans? Since the Wolfpack's run, only eight teams seeded eighth or higher have even reached the Final Four. LSU, as an 11th seed in 1986 is the highest seed, while just one -- the 8th-seeded Villanova Wildcats -- won the title, in 1985.

While the Watch is all for Cinderella stories lasting as long as possible, we're more about those little schools that could send the big boys home in the first two rounds. Teams like Gonzaga, Kent State and Southern Illinois in recent years that have made the mid-majors so much a part of March Madness.

As anyone who fills out a bracket knows, double-digit seeds pull yearly upsets. And it's not just happening in the always dangerous 5-12 games, where at least one 12 seed has won in 14 of 16 tournaments since the field was expanded in 1985 to 64 teams.

• No. 15 Hampton upset No. 2 Iowa State in 2001.
• No. 14 Weber State upset No. 3 North Carolina in 1999.
• No. 13 UNC-Wilmington upset No. 4 USC in 2002.
• Both Tulsa and Creighton pulled off upsets in last year's 5-12 games.
• As 11 seeds the past two tournaments, Southern Illinois and Temple have reached the Sweet 16.
• And didn't this all start five years ago? That's when Gonzaga started going to Sweet 16s as a 10 seed in both 1999 and 2000.

So much for the NCAA Tournament history lesson. What does it mean for this year's bracket? That's where the Cinderella Watch comes into play.

All year, the Watch has been tracking potential Cinderellas in the NCAA Tournament and the teams below made ESPN.com's final cut. How reliable is this Watch -- we'll like a broken one, we were right twice last year. Hey, but we did have Kent State on the list and all the Golden Flashes did was reach the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed.

The Watch has singled out a potential Cinderella in each region, along with two more teams to keep an eye on. But, whether you agree or not with our choices below, be sure to pencil in a few upsets in those first-round games.

	CENTRAL MICHIGAN
	Record 24-6 Overall Seed: 11 Region: West First-Round Victim: Creighton Site: Thursday, Salt Lake City

For those who followed the Watch all year, the Chippewas didn't get much love. Well, we're trying to make amends for that, but with good reason. It's tournament time and that means watch out for the MAC. Last year's Elite Eight run by Kent State was the just the latest in a series of impressive performances by MAC teams. The conference has sent a team to the Sweet 16 four times since 1990, and eight MAC teams have won first-round games over the past 12 tournaments. As for Central Michigan, the Chips won the MAC tournament as the No. 1 seed. Facing Creighton won't leave the Chips in awe. The MVC and MAC are both rising mid-majors and these were clearly the two best teams in each conference. The best player on the court may not be Kyle Korver, either. Central's junior center Chris Kaman just may be the best big man in the tournament -- at least in the eyes of NBA scouts. The 7-footer averaged 22.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. He finished the regular season with 39 points against Ball State (he dropped 43 on the Cardinals earlier in the year) and then poured in 25, 23 and 25 in the Chips' three MAC tourney wins. CMU isn't a one-man team, either. Mike Manciel and J.R. Wallace each average over 15 points a game. Central could face Duke in the second round, where the potential for a second upset exists. But first things first, and that's proving the Chips belong on the Watch long before now.

	MANHATTAN
	Record 23-6 Overall Seed: 14 Region: East First-Round Victim: Syracuse Site: Friday, Boston

Picking a 14 seed to win is always a reach. It hasn't happened since Weber State's victory over North Carolina in 1999 (more on that below). But this long shot comes with a trend worth paying attention to in the first round. Manhattan has owned NYC, beating every New York team its faced at least once. Syracuse, for those out west, plays in upstate New York. Can the city kids take out the Orange in Boston? It's not impossible, considering Manhattan has road wins over Big East schools St. John's and Seton Hall and finished the year with 16 wins in neutral-court and road games -- the most of any team in the country. While Syracuse's Carmelo Anthony has NBA scouts drooling, Manhattan's Luis Flores has fans thinking upset. Check out the NCAA Tournament scoring leaders and you'll find Flores at the top of the list (24.8 ppg). The 6-2 senior transfer from Rutgers also pulls down nearly six rebounds a game and has six games of 30 or more points this year -- including 44 against Fairfield. At one point this season, Manhattan owned the nation's longest winning streak (for a day), winning 15 straight from Dec. 23 to Feb. 8. It stumbled a bit down the stretch, losing three of four heading into the MAAC tournament. But the Jaspers backed up their regular season title with three straight wins in the MAAC tournament. Get past the Orange and the Jaspers just may be playing ...

	PENNSYLVANIA
	Record 22-5 Overall Seed: 11 Region: East First-Round Victim: Oklahoma State Site: Friday, Boston

... Pennsylvania, which is one of two teams on the Watch -- and along with Kentucky -- that went undefeated within their conferences. The Quakers were 14-0 in the Ivy League, enter the tournament on a 15-game winning streak, and have won 19 of their last 20 games. But don't judge this Penn team with the same eye as past Ivy League teams in the NCAAs. These Quakers will run, dunk and shoot without even noticing the shot clock. Just ask USC, which saw Penn nearly hit the century mark in a 99-61 rout out in California. The Quakers averaged 70 points a game, while allowing just 59. And when Ugonna Onyekwe or Koko Archibong aren't flying to the rim, junior Jeff Schiffner is nailing 49 percent of his 3-pointers to help the Quakers hit 41 percent of their 3s as a team. The first-round matchup with Oklahoma State is favorable, if for not other reason, the Cowboys haven't had the best recent first-round results. OSU was ousted by Kent State a year ago and hasn't gotten out of the first round since 2001.

	SAN DIEGO
	Record 18-11 Overall Seed: 13 Region: South First-Round Victim: Stanford Site: Thursday, Spokane, Wa.

Take a 6-foot-10, 290-pounder and surround him with shooters. That's what San Diego did to get to the Dance. Now, it's up to Jason Keep and company to translate its late WCC run into an NCAA victory. It can happen, especially with Stanford as the Toreros' first-round foe. While beating UCLA became vogue this season, San Diego didn't know so back in November when it beat a Bruins' squad ranked 14th in the country -- in Pauley, no less. San Diego then wrapped up the season with a victory over Gonzaga in the WCC title game. Keep, who you may remember from his rim-shattering days at Oklahoma State, led San Diego's late-season surge that saw it win seven of their final nine WCC games heading into the postseason. But 6-7 Jason Blair compliments him both down low and helps outside with 40-percent 3-point shooting. As a team, the Toreros hit 39 percent of their 3s, which means Stanford can't expect to just pack its defense around Keep. It's been 15 years since San Diego danced. It could be another 15 until we see 'em again. Why not let the Toreros hang around for more than one song?

	WEBER STATE
	Record 26-5 Overall Seed: 12 Region: Midwest First-Round Victim: Wisconsin Site: Thursday, Spokane, Wa.

The Wildcats are the other team on the Watch to go unbeaten during the regular season, and like their namesakes in Kentucky, these 'Cats also backed up their perfection with the conference tournament title. It's pretty safe to say the Badgers weren't happy to see "Weber State" show up next to them on Selection Sunday. The Wildcats are as dangerous a 12th seed as their is this year, winners of 17 straight heading into the Dance, not to mention a program that knocked off North Carolina back in 1999 as a No. 14 seed (Weber State also upset No. 3 Michigan State in '95). This year's Weber State squad certainly can following tradition with a talent like Jermaine Boyette, who led the Big Sky in scoring (20.1) and has eclipsed 20 points in five straight games. The Wildcats drew the Big Ten's regular season champion, but a Wisconsin team that lost in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. The Badgers can't afford another off-shooting day and expect to get past Weber State.

	WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE
	Record 24-7 Overall Seed: 12 Region: West First-Round Victim: Notre Dame Site: Thursday, Indianapolis

In what could be the highest-scoring game of the first two days of the tournament, the Panthers certainly are capable of scoring more than the Irish. The Panthers score 77 per game, while Notre Dame averaged 80 points in 40 minutes. And, neither team plays much defense, which means a missed 3-pointer or free throw late in the game could be the difference. As one of the seven first-timers, Wisconsin-Milwaukee has the best shot to move into the second round. Notre Dame lost six of its last 10 games, and while those setbacks came against Big East teams, it's a trend that can't be ignored this time of year -- especially in a 5-12 setting. Wisconsin-Milwaukee, meanwhile, got in the tournament by winning the Horizon League tournament, capping off its run with a 17-point rout of Butler.