ESPN College Football

I'm excited for a new season. Two years ago, I was well over .500 picking games against the line. Last year, um, not so much. Obviously, there are more than 15 games below. I went for any game involving a ranked team as well as TV games I know I'll be watching, such as Rice-SMU, NC State-South Carolina and Oregon State-Stanford. So having said that, here are this week's guesses:

Thursday, Aug. 28

Wake Forest 27, Baylor 17
Even though BU owns the series history (4-0), that's stuff from a long time ago. The Bears' slow starts -- they've lost five of their past six season openers -- are not. Wake has a good backfield and a lot of experience on defense. I also like that Jim Grobe's team is 4-1 against out-of-conference BCS opponents in the regular season the past two years.

South Carolina 17, NC State 6
I like the Carolina defense to be improved this year and I also like Steve Spurrier's team on Thursday nights. Carolina is 3-1 in the past three years in the "Thursday night special" games. (Last year, they beat eighth-ranked Kentucky at home 38-23 on a Thursday night prime-time stage.) NC State has lost two of its past three season openers.

Stanford 23, Oregon State 17
The Cardinal have one of the nation's best group of linebackers, and the Stanford defense could be very salty this year. I also think this is the best O-line Stanford has had in years, and it will be able to outmuscle an inexperienced OSU defense in its first road test. The Beavers have lost their past five road openers, and the past three have been blowouts.

Friday, Aug. 29

Rice 38, SMU 20
It takes June Jones' QBs at least a year to get comfortable in his system. Meanwhile, Rice has a really good signal-caller in Chase Clement and a star WR in Jarrett Dillard. Clement ran all over SMU last season, and even though SMU piled up 320 rushing yards against Rice, I just don't see Jones leaning on the ground game like that. I also like that Rice has won nine straight at home in this series.

Saturday, Aug. 30

Ohio State 49, Youngstown State 3
I know Jim Tressel doesn't want to run it up against his old school, but with the talent his team has, it'll be almost hard not to. Last year OSU won this game 38-6, and this is a far more advanced OSU offense thanks to the experience at the skill positions.

Wisconsin 35, Akron 6
The Zips, who have a recent history of getting pounded in road openers, might be the worst team in the MAC. They also will be going against a very experienced defense. On the bright side, they are pretty good on special teams and their kicker has good range.

Virginia Tech 24, East Carolina 10
Lots of questions in the Tech backfield, but ECU has had its own issues replacing RB Chris Johnson and will miss one of its best D-linemen. I see Tech's improved O-line taking control of this game in the second half.

Penn State 51, Coastal Carolina 0
This is the Chanticleers' first game against a major college opponent. Not good. Penn State is pretty adept at hammering the little guys. Last year the Nittany Lions drilled FIU 59-0 in the opener. My hunch is PSU will just be way too physical on both lines for Coastal Carolina.

Pittsburgh 34, Bowling Green 17
Bowling Green is a good MAC team, but they give up a ton of rushing yards -- and that's a problem if you're facing someone as slick as LeSean McCoy. But don't underestimate the Falcons as they've been very tough in road openers and have four wins over schools from BCS conferences in the past decade.

Georgia 48, Georgia-Southern 10
Southern has talent, but Georgia can come at them in waves. In 2004, Georgia-Southern hung tough for the first half until the Dawgs mauled them in the second half. I like Georgia's D-line to dominate this game.

Florida 68, Hawaii 14
Three things scare me about this if I'm a Hawaii fan: (1) Hawaii has really struggled in its road opener and this game is super-early in Hawaii time; (2) Hawaii is very green in the D-line and secondary; (3) Florida is absolutely loaded on offense. Maybe that's actually five things. Not sure. But I'm expecting a big rout, Percy Harvin or not.

USC 28, Virginia 3
If Al Groh's team still had Chris Long and its formidable D-line along with its old mobile QB, I could see the Cavaliers giving the Trojans some trouble, but I doubt Virginia has the horses to challenge USC's young O-line. I expect the Cavs to work in more of an up-tempo passing game, a la their bowl foe from last season, Texas Tech. It won't do much against a punishing secondary with talent at all three levels, though.

West Virginia 55, Villanova 14
Nova's a good I-AA team, but the Mountaineers have a history of thumping opponents in their openers. Expect more of the same. WVU has too much speed on offense for Nova to keep up with.

Michigan 20, Utah 10
The Wolverines will be sky-high for this one. Rich Rodriguez also has a few more playmakers on offense than people are giving him credit for. The defense also should be tough. The Utes are good, but they don't have a ton of experience in their front seven and they have been drilled by unranked opponents in their past two season openers.

LSU 38, Appalachian State 17
Armanti Edwards is a blast to watch, but this LSU defense is better up front than the Michigan group he lit up last year. Worse still for the Mountaineers is all the experience they lost from last year's team. Plus, LSU's home setting is a lot nastier than The Big House.

BYU 48, Northern Iowa 20
The Cougars have a terrific O-line and can outmuscle a lot of teams, but don't overlook Northern Iowa, which is a powerhouse at its level. Corey Lewis should be a handful for an unproven BYU defense. Last season, Lewis ran for 130 yards in a 24-13 upset at Iowa State.

Oklahoma 65, Chattanooga 0
The Mocs scrapped a little bit with Arkansas last year. This one won't be anywhere near as close. Oklahoma hung 79 on North Texas in last year's opener and could probably score more than that in this one.

Auburn 31, Louisiana-Monroe 7
The Warhawks are the same team that knocked off Alabama last year. They also held new Auburn offensive coordinator Tony Franklin's Troy offense to 24 points last season. But the Tigers have been dominant in this series and will be fueled by the Tide loss to make a statement.

Texas 45, Florida Atlantic 28
Howard Schnellenberger challenged the Longhorns. And whether he intended to or not, he riled them up. Last year, Texas was similarly chafed by Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter, and the Horns' defense took over that bowl game. I suspect more of the same, although FAU QB Rusty Smith is sharp enough to win some battles against a very young Texas secondary.

Texas Tech 69, Eastern Washington 14
The Eagles are a strong I-AA team, although they did get crushed by BYU last year. This Tech offense is a lot more explosive than the Cougars. Expect some big stats from QB Graham Harrell to kick off the season.

Kansas 45, Florida International 13
Kansas blistered FIU 55-3 last year. I suspect FIU should be quite a bit better from last year as they have more experience and have upgraded their speed a lot, but QB Todd Reesing will be too good for the Panthers.

South Florida 48, Tennessee-Martin 3
The Bulls have almost everybody back on offense and also have history on their side, having gone 11-0 in home openers (winning by an average of 29 ppg).

Clemson 31, Alabama 23
Nick Saban has had a long time to come up with a plan to contain the Tigers' potent backfield. I just don't know whether the young Tide defense will be able to implement it and stay on top of it for an entire game. I'll go with Clemson's more seasoned playmakers over Bama's rookies.

Missouri 35, Illinois 20
I know Regis Benn is going to be great, but I suspect the Illini will miss Rashard Mendenhall a lot more than people think. The Tigers have a lot of firepower on offense, and their D (10 starters back) is underrated. They ran out of gas in this game last year. I don't see that happening again.

Arizona State 49, Northern Arizona 20
The Lumberjacks best hope is to get a lot of heat on QB Rudy Carpenter. I doubt that will happen. ASU has made a lot of adjustments on offense and I think the quick passing game will burn NAU, although I could see the Lumberjacks' passing game doing a little damage, too.

Oregon 31, Washington 28
Mike Bellotti has had to shuffle his offense to rely on new QB Justin Roper, but Roper has some big-game experience and should be fine. The Ducks have a great secondary, but QB Jake Locker presents a different kind of problem. I think he'll keep this one interesting.

Sunday, Aug. 31

Louisville 20, Kentucky 7
The Cards have won five consecutive openers, and I think Kentucky will miss Andre' Woodson even more than Louisville will miss Brian Brohm.

Monday, Sept. 1

Tennessee 21, UCLA 9
On the bright side: The Bruins should be very good on special teams. The bad news for UCLA fans: The patchwork O-line is a mess, and they're facing a team with some NFL talent up front. Tennessee did struggle on its last big road trip to California, losing to the Golden Bears, but this UCLA team is still a few years away.

Bruce Feldman is a senior writer with ESPN The Magazine. His new book, "Meat Market: Inside the Smash-Mouth World of College Football Recruiting," is on sale now.