ESPN College Football

I'm coming off a solid week, when I was three games better than .500 against the line. That puts me one game under for the season thus far. The recap: The good was picking Florida to thump Tennessee, the bad was picking USF to pound FIU and the ugly was touting Oregon to cruise by Boise State. Here are this week's guesses:

Thursday, Sept. 25

USC 38, Oregon State 7
The Trojans lost in their previous trip up to Corvallis in 2006, but this OSU defense is too green to hang with USC. Look for the Trojans to dominate on both lines and for their secondary to force some turnovers. USC's skill talent should hit big plays just as Penn State did against the Beavers.

Friday, Sept. 26

Louisville 24, UConn 14
Expect the Cards to try to exploit the middle of the field as the improving young U of L receivers take another step forward. Baylor had some success with a similar plan in last week's loss to the Huskies. This also will be a good challenge for UConn's terrific TB Donald Brown, whom Randy Edsall would love not to have to lean on so much. The Cards' D, which is tops in the Big East against the run (42 ypg), should be up to the task.

Saturday, Sept. 27

Ohio State 31, Minnesota 10
Tim Brewster's team is improved, especially on D, but Ohio State is such a step up in competition that Minnesota won't be able to handle it. I don't like the chances of the Gophers' young backs against James Laurinaitis & Co. The Buckeyes are 17-1 against the Gophers in Columbus.

Clemson 35, Maryland 27
It's tough to read a matchup that pits two of the country's most inconsistent programs against each other. Both teams have great speed at the skill positions. Look for the Tigers to put a lot of pressure on the Terps, who have had problems protecting their quarterbacks (nine sacks allowed). The Tigers also should force QB Chris Turner into making a few big mistakes.

Florida 35, Ole Miss 17
Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead enters Gainesville after having two shaky performances, and his line could really struggle in the Swamp. The Rebels' D-line is getting healthier and will make some big plays. But their secondary is the biggest weak spot on the team, and that's not good when you're facing Tim Tebow and those receivers.

Miami 21, North Carolina 9
Miami QB Robert Marve faces a physical UNC defense, but it's a D that is last in the ACC in sacks (three). Look for the young QB to continue to impress by spreading the ball around. Also look for the Canes to come after the inexperienced UNC QBs in waves with too much speed.

Texas 38, Arkansas 7
The Hogs' penchant for slow starting isn't a good thing against Texas QB Colt McCoy and a team that is averaging 26 first-half points this year. Texas also has been pretty good in its third-down D and has way too many athletes for the young Arkansas defense to handle. The Hogs' defense is by far the worst statistically in the SEC.

Wisconsin 20, Michigan 17
The Badgers are trying to beat Michigan in consecutive seasons for the first time in 14 years. They have a big edge in experience, although their problems tackling may flare up against running back Sam McGuffie and some promising skill players in Ann Arbor. Still, look for the underrated Wisconsin D-line to handle the green Wolverines front.

Auburn 17, Tennessee 7
The Vols are reeling. They make too many mistakes both at home and away. That mounting pressure isn't good, especially because they're coming into a very hostile environment with a punishing defense waiting for QB Jonathan Crompton.

East Carolina 35, Houston 24
How much of an effect will the upset loss to NC State have on ECU? I expect coach Skip Holtz to refocus and the Pirates to be too physical for Houston.

Fresno State 17, UCLA 16
This time, the Bruins might be able to generate a decent ground game. Getting back RB Kahlil Bell helps, as does the fact that the Bulldogs will be without two standout DTs and will replace them with youngsters. Still, Fresno's edge at QB will be enough for it to sneak out with a W.

Wake Forest 34, Navy 10
The Middies love to run the ball and are very one-dimensional. Fortunately for Demon Deacons head coach Jim Grobe, his team is very good at bottling up the run (3.2 ypc, 100.5 yards per game). Expect Riley Skinner to pick apart a Navy defense that has been horrible, especially on third downs (surrendering a 57 percent conversion rate).

Cal 45, Colorado State 14
A big bounce back is due for the Golden Bears, who have been off a week since their flat performance at Maryland. CSU's D has given up a ton of yardage to less-explosive offenses than this one. Expect a big day for the Cal offense.

Oklahoma 35, TCU 10
The Horned Frogs' defense has been outstanding so far, but quarterback Sam Bradford and the Sooners' O-line are a major upgrade from the competition TCU has seen. TCU won the previous two times it had ventured into Norman, but my hunch is that it just won't happen again this time. I expect that OU won't let the Horned Frogs run the ball very much at all.

LSU 31, Mississippi State 3
The Tigers' offense really matured last week in a tough spot against a nasty defense at Auburn. MSU doesn't have that kind of talent, and its floundering offense will get swarmed by the Tigers' speed. LSU has won eight straight against the Bulldogs and is averaging almost a 40-point victory margin in their past five meetings.

South Florida 20, NC State 6
Just when the Pack started to show signs of stepping up, two of their better players sustained injuries. The loss of promising QB Russell Wilson will be a major blow against the fast Bulls defense.

Georgia 13, Alabama 7
Alabama head coach Nick Saban is a whiz at coming up with pressure packages to rattle an offense, and I expect his defense to keep things interesting all night. Still, look for the Dawgs to make a few more plays on offense and to capitalize on some Bama mistakes in the second half.

Penn State 34, Illinois 24
JoePa's new spread offense will provide plenty of fireworks, but the Illinois' D-line is getting healthy and having DT Josh Brent back will make a difference against the nation's No. 8 running attack. My hunch is that Penn State's home-field boost will pressure the Illini offense to keep up, but it won't be able to.

Utah 40, Weber State 10
Former Utes coach Ron McBride gets a crack at his old team, and I don't think that's a good thing for WSU. Utah is 30-0 all-time against Big Sky opponents. The Utes will be too physical for Weber.

Bruce Feldman is a senior writer with ESPN The Magazine. His new book, "Meat Market: Inside the Smash-Mouth World of College Football Recruiting," is on sale now.