ESPN College Football

I had a shaky week, going one under .500 against the line to put me eight over for the season. To recap: The good of last week's predictions was picking Cal to beat Oregon. The bad: picking Minnesota to handle Northwestern. The ugly: picking USF to beat Cincinnati. This week's guesses:

Virginia Tech 16, Maryland 10: History is on Tech's side. The Hokies pounded Maryland 83-15 in their previous two meetings. This Tech offense, though, doesn't have the firepower to put up points like that. And Tech does have big injury problems at quarterback. Still, expect the Hokies' defense to rally. Plus, Maryland has had issues playing at night (0-2) and isn't sure how much production it can get from ailing running back Da'Rel Scott.

TCU 20, Utah 17: Both teams have great defensive ends and can really harass the quarterback. TCU's Andy Dalton has been terrific (9 TDs, 0 INTs) since returning from a knee injury three weeks ago. I was tempted to pick the host Utes, but I like the improvement this Horned Frogs offense has made of late.

Fresno State 41, Nevada 34: Colin Kaepernick is a marvelous talent at QB for Nevada, and he will give the FSU defense some problems. The Bulldogs have surrendered a ton of points this season and gave up around 36 points per game in their past six games. But my hunch is that Bulldogs QB Tom Brandstater will respond with a big game.

Texas 48, Baylor 21: Robert Griffin has been dynamite for Baylor, but UT should be in an ornery mood after losing last week at Texas Tech. Colt McCoy threw six TD passes against Baylor the previous time the Bears came to Austin. He might get another half-dozen this week. (Baylor is 91st in pass-efficiency D.) UT will need to do a much better job tackling this week against Griffin than it did in the previous two games, when broken tackles have been a concern.

Ohio State 20, Northwestern 17: The Wildcats have a pretty good run defense (109 yards per game, 26th in the nation), and OSU can get very one-dimensional. Under Jim Tressel, the Buckeyes also have a history of sluggish performance immediately after bye weeks (to the tune of a 1-4 record). However, I think their D is strong enough to battle through that. I expect this one to be close in the fourth quarter.

Michigan State 35, Purdue 14: The Boilermakers have been atrocious on the road this season and have lost all three of their games by double digits. An even worse sign: They're ranked 91st against the run (176 ypg). Spartans RB Javon Ringer, who has recoverd a virus and back at full strength, hasn't rushed for more than 200 yards in a Big Ten game, but that will change this week.

UNC 17, Georgia Tech 13: The Yellow Jackets may be incredibly young (Paul Johnson boasts that 16 of his 22 starters are freshmen or sophomores), but they are very talented. But as great as Tech's D-line is, UNC just handled a team with a very good front (Boston College), and I expect it to manage well enough here. The Tar Heels also have been very tough against the run of late, and that bodes well facing Jon Dwyer & Co.

UGA 42, Kentucky 17: Georgia's offense hasn't been sharp in the red zone, but the Dawgs should be in a bad mood after last week's rout by Florida. Kentucky's offense is struggling too much (313 ypg, 99th in total offense) to keep up with UGA.

Boise State 48, Utah State 7: USU has a porous line and is ripe to be picked apart by an outstanding Boise State D-line, which is the nation's seventh-ranked pass-rush unit. Kellen Moore should have another big day against an undermanned defense.

BYU 58, San Diego State 10: The Cougars really struggle away from home, but this game isn't on the road, so expect a BYU rout. Meanwhile, the only home team that hasn't pounded State is Notre Dame, which beat the Aztecs 21-13 in the Irish's opener.

Alabama 13, LSU 9: Nick Saban's return to the Bayou will be a hard-hitting event. Getting the mammoth Terrence Cody back in the center of the Tide defense is huge for Alabama. It also brings more energy back to the team. Look for Bama to outrush the Tigers and make fewer mistakes.

Penn State 17, Iowa 13: The Nittany Lions' run defense has been very solid all season (99 ypg, 11th in the country). PSU has been especially stout against quality big backs such as Beanie Wells and P.J. Hill, but Shonn Greene will provide a good challenge. The Hawkeyes' run defense is pretty tough, too, and Iowa just did a nice job containing Juice Williams and Illinois' spread attack, so look for it to keep the game close throughout.

Oklahoma 55, Texas A&M 27: The Aggies are very young, but QB Jerrod Johnson is strong in the pocket and has some tall, athletic receivers to rely on. OU still is suspect on D, but the Sooners have way too much firepower on offense for A&M to compete with.

Florida State 24, Clemson 13: Cullen Harper was sloppy in last week's game against BC. That's a bad sign heading into a game against a much faster defense such as the Noles' D. The Tigers' O-line also figures to have its hands full with the aggressive FSU front seven.

Mizzou 62, K-State 17: Even if Mizzou's star tight end Chase Coffman can't play (sprained toe), the Tigers are too precise and too dynamic for a Wildcats team that is in disarray. K-State's defense is ranked 107th in scoring D (34 ppg), and the Cats also don't have the kind of pass rush to rattle Chase Daniel.

WVU 23, Cincy 14: The young Bearcats receivers have begun to emerge, and Cincy has a very strong D-line, which should pose some problems for Pat White. However, WVU has too many weapons for the Bearcats to handle for four quarters.

Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 27: The Cowboys are too tough to be labeled as anyone's trap game, but this is a tricky spot for Tech coming off the huge emotional win over UT. Mike Leach said his team had some of its best practices this week, and the home crowd should keep the Red Raiders fresh. Tech's D-line, which has played great during the past month, should do enough to slow down OSU's outstanding running attack.

Florida 38, Vandy 7: Don't count on much of a letdown from the Gators. UF has won eight straight at Vandy. Percy Harvin ran wild against the Commodores last year, and the Gators' speedsters should be poised for another big day.

USC 23, Cal 3: No one's defense is playing better than USC's right now. Meanwhile, the Golden Bears might be forced to rely on Nate Longshore behind a suspect O-line. That doesn't bode well against a fierce Trojans front seven.

Bruce Feldman is a senior writer with ESPN The Magazine. His new book, "Meat Market: Inside the Smash-Mouth World of College Football Recruiting," is on sale now.