Stanford's big step shakes things up (a bit) at the top
Stanford and Tennessee gave us the game of the season to date three days before Christmas. The entertainment value and intensity probably hasn't been met anywhere else so far in 2007-08, and it might turn out to be the regular season's most important game -- for the Cardinal, at least.
The Cardinal are now a strong favorite to be on the top line, having navigated through a challenging nonconference schedule with just one loss (vs. Connecticut) and wins over the Lady Vols and Rutgers, two other schools which would have to be considered contenders for the honor.
Keeping in mind that none of the jockeying for seeding or tournament berths happens in a singular vacuum (outcomes happening outside Stanford's control will also play a role), the facts are pretty clear:
• The Tennessee win gave Stanford a 10-1 record, which was compiled against what was rated as the nation's toughest schedule at the time. • Victories over Rutgers, Baylor and Tennessee don't go away, no matter how many weeks have passed. • The Pac-10, a place where Stanford went 17-1 in 2007, is weaker this season (the Cardinal, now 12-1 overall, are off to a 2-0 start in league play). Arizona State is struggling mightily, USC hasn't played to expectations and UCLA is sub-.500. Seemingly, the only threats to Stanford's unbeaten conference season are Jan. 26 and Feb. 23 when it meets Cal. Unless …That is, unless Stanford remembers the Tennessee win for too long. With so much of the season left, the biggest threat to Tara VanDerveer's most successful season in a decade would be mentally celebrating with a feeling of accomplishment for too long (Friday's pummeling of Washington State would indicate that hasn't happened). That's for us to do. We analyze. We look ahead. The Stanford players cannot. Finish the regular season successfully and the Cardinal should be a No. 1 seed.
As monumental as the upset might have been for Stanford, it's hardly too detrimental to Tennessee. In fact, it doesn't hurt the Lady Vols much at all with regard to earning a top seed, and it could ultimately help them if they use it as a blueprint for areas that need addressing. Tennessee gets the opponent's A-game each time out. Matching that intensity for an entire 40 minutes, most notably on the glass, is something this group should now realize it has to do.
If the season ended today, Tennessee would still be a No. 1 seed. But who else? At this point, Connecticut would be the tournament's overall seed. The Huskies have been utterly dominant (Hartford and its seven second-half points would certainly concur) and are one of only three unbeatens (Arkansas and Georgia). Plug Stanford in at No. 2 overall on the S-curve. Tennessee and Maryland are the final two No. 1 seeds. In a theoretical sense, all four teams control their own destinies, with Stanford having the easier road the rest of the way.
Georgia, Rutgers, North Carolina and Baylor make up the No. 2 seeds at this point.
LSU likely would have been eighth overall in place of the Lady Bears, but Friday's loss at Middle Tennessee cost the Lady Tigers that spot. And with Sylvia Fowles out for at least another two weeks, LSU will have its work cut out trying to get back into the top eight.
Fowles' injury brings up the interesting point as to how will LSU be measured. Whatever losses Van Chancellor's club suffers without its star center will be viewed differently, assuming she returns healthy and LSU shows success with Fowles back in the lineup. The loss to Middle Tennessee won't be completely forgotten, but if LSU goes on to beat, say, Tennessee, with Fowles back, or goes on to win an SEC championship, the committee is not going to penalize LSU as much for anything that happened without Fowles on the floor.
How LSU plays in the next month with or without is best player will be one of the key stories to watch into 2008 and the start of conference play.
Charlie Creme can be reached at cwcreme@yahoo.com.
