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Thursday, March 27
Are Lobos poised for upset?
By Nancy Lieberman
Special to ESPN.com
Duke vs. Georgia | Texas Tech vs. New Mexico
The higher seeds are the favorites in the Midwest in the regional semifinals. But as we found out in the second round, there's always room for an upset. And in this region, New Mexico has definitely been making noise.
Here's how we see Saturday's Sweet 16 games shaking out in the Midwest:
  (1) Duke vs. (5) Georgia
Tipoff: 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Records: Duke 33-1, Georgia 21-9
Series history: Duke won the only meeting, an 81-69 victory in San Jose, Calif., on March 26, 1999, in the national semifinals. It marked the Blue Devils' first appearance in the Final Four.
How they got here: Duke struggled a bit in its first-round game against Georgia State, and didn't get its first double-digit lead until more than midway through the second half before pulling away for a 66-48 win. The Blue Devils then played stellar defense and shot 45 percent (the first time they had shot better than 40 percent in their last five games) en route to beating Utah 65-54 in the second round. Georgia beat Charlotte 80-61 in its opener, then ran over fourth-seeded Rutgers 74-64 in a second-round game in Athens, Ga. The Lady Bulldogs went 29-for-38 at the free-throw line (outscoring the Scarlet Knights 29-7 at the charity stripe) after Rutgers was whistled for 27 fouls.
The skinny: The Blue Devils are high energy, uptempo and a great defensive team. They have the best defender in the country in Alana Beard (who'll play her 100th game in a Duke uniform) and a great supporting cast both inside and outside. Iciss Tillis is very hard to play against -- she can play down on the block or take you away from the basket. Michele Matyasovsky has picked up the slack in Monique Curry's absence. The highly touted freshmen -- Lindsey Harding, Jessica Foley and Mistie Bass -- also are developing well.
This team is well-coached, very confident and versatile -- the Devils can play grind-it-out basketball, the half-court game, run and push tempo and make the extra pass. And one of the best things about Duke this season? The Blue Devils have some depth. Last year you couldn't use "Duke" and "deep" in the same sentence, so that is a major turnaround.
Georgia is one of the biggest surprises of the tournament, and coach Andy Landers has done an amazing job. If Alana Beard or Diana Taurasi had been lost for the season in mid-February, there's a good chance we wouldn't be touting Duke and UConn as national-championship contenders. But despite losing Kara Braxton (Landers suspended her for the rest of the season after repeated violations of team policy), who was Georgia's best player statistically, the Lady Bulldogs have weathered the storm and even excelled, despite countless injuries.
Right now, Christi Thomas is playing the best basketball of her career, and scored 31 points in Georgia's opener. The Lady Dogs' ever-athletic freshmen, especially Alexis Kendrick, also have come up big, which once again proves what an incredible recruiter Landers is. However, freshmen guard Sherrill Baker left Georgia's game against Rutgers early in the second half with a separated right shoulder, and is listed as day-to-day.
Edge: Andy Landers has done an amazing job this year, and once again proved he's one of the all-time greatest coaches in women's basketball. But Duke, making its sixth straight Sweet 16 appearance, has the advantage. The Blue Devils are more experienced, especially after last season's trip to the Final Four (which included six players from this year's active team members). They no longer are wondering what the trip to the national semifinals might be like. They've been there, they know what it takes to get there, and that counts for a lot at this time of the season.
  (2) Texas Tech vs. (6) New Mexico
Tipoff: 11:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Records: Texas Tech 28-5, New Mexico 24-8
Series history: Texas Tech leads the series with a 9-1 mark. Tech won nine straight before the Lobos got their first win on Nov. 30, 2001 in a 74-65 victory in Albuquerque, N.M. Jordan Adams overcame foul trouble to score 21 points and Mandi Moore added 18. Tech's Plenette Pierson scored eight points on 4-for-15 shooting and Jia Perkins had three points, sinking just 1 of 4 shots. It was Pierson's final game of the 2001-02 season before getting suspended for the rest of the year by coach Marsha Sharp.
How they got here: Second-seeded Texas Tech beat Southwest Missouri State 67-59 in the first round (coach Marsha Sharp said her team's backcourt play was "lazy"), and held off a rallying UC Santa Barbara for a 72-68 win in the second to make its fifth straight trip to the round of 16. New Mexico, which also hosted the subregional, beat Miami 91-85 in overtime in the first round, then hit 13 3-pointers in upsetting third-seeded Mississippi State 73-61 in the second.
The skinny: The Lady Raiders are good, experienced, and shoot, rebound and run the floor well. Jia Perkins, who had 23 points last time out, is silky smooth, a great slasher and excellent in attacking you and breaking down your defense. Freshman Erin Grant is the real deal and has given Tech a legitimate point guard. As she gets older, she'll need to expand her shot, but this season she has been fantastic.
Plenette Pierson, Tech's lone senior, is playing well and runs the floor as well as anyone. She has matured a lot since last season; her decision-making skills have vastly improved. Pierson gives the Lady Raiders a nice inside-outside presence, and also causes problems for opponents because she can go out and guard people on the perimeter or in the post. While she had a difficult time guarding players such as Texas' Heather Schreiber on the perimeter in the regular season. Pierson is much more comfortable guarding posts, even if they're bigger than her.
That could mean trouble for New Mexico's Jordan Adams, who also might have her hands full having to chase Pierson around the floor. But Tech's Cisti Greenwalt is probably the biggest X-factor in this game. She'll probably match up more often with Adams, but the question is whether Greenwalt leans on her or box her out. Greenwalt can be one of the more dominating players, but she needs to be consistent. If she's able to be aggressive and neutralize Adams a bit, bang on her inside, the Lobos could struggle.
Of course, no one's really counting out New Mexico. This is a hot team that's riding a lot of momentum and has some of the best fans in the nation cheering it on. Adams and Mandi Moore each scored 19 points in the second round, and Adams' added a great all-around game with 10 rebounds, five blocks and four assists. Against Miami, she blocked eight shots (and has a school-record 341 blocks), and there's everything to like about her game.
Tech needs to be wary of the Lobos' lethal 3-point shooting. Seven players sank at least one trey in the second-round game, and Moore went 5-for-8 from downtown. As a team, New Mexico shot 13-for-30 from beyond the arc. Half of the Lobos' made field goals (27), in fact, were 3-pointers.
New Mexico's defense also is dangerous, though its often underrated. The Lobos shoot 42.7 percent from the field, but New Mexico's opponents are making just 35.2 percent from the floor. They also sport a plus-5.8 rebounding margin.
Edge: Texas Tech. The Lady Raiders are seasoned, used to playing in front of big crowds and battle-tested after competing in the Big 12. However, it wouldn't be totally surprising to see New Mexico pull another upset. The Lobos have already shown us they have plenty of firepower and can overcome great individual performers (such as Tan White and LaToya Thomas) by playing great team ball. And playing at home is a huge boost at this point of the season, especially with these Lobos fans. Several people have told me I'm lucky to be the color commentator for the Midwest Region this weekend, and I can't wait to see how electrifying The Pit will be.
What they're saying about the Midwest
"Erin Grant is a fabulous point guard. She can dish the ball and can flat-out pass it on a dime. If you want to see a passing clinic, watch Erin Grant. She must develop more of a perimeter shot in the years to come, but she can hit that mid-range jumper and get to the rim." -- ESPN analyst Stacey Dales-Schuman
"Duke played great defense (against Utah), and that got (the Blue Devils) started on a good note. Alana Beard stepped up big time and gave her team confidence right off the bat." -- ESPN analyst Nell Fortner
Nancy Lieberman, an ESPN analyst and Hall of Famer, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com's women's basketball coverage. Contact her at www.nancylieberman.com.
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