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If there is one thing I dread about this time of year, it's predicting how teams will do in the coming season. There are just too many factors that can affect a team's destiny to know how it will wind up after 16 games.

Picking the success of individual players, on the other hand, is far easier. You can measure more variables -- such as level of experience, supporting casts and the effectiveness of schemes -- and reliably determine whether they'll meet expectations or eventually disappoint.

That's why I'm going to pick a breakout player on offense and defense for this coming season. Hey, I'm going to have to do it eventually, so I might as well get it over with now. On offense, I'm going with Pittsburgh tight end Heath Miller. I keep hearing about how much new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians wants to use the tight end, and Miller has been a Pro Bowler waiting to happen. He has the size (6-foot-5, 256 pounds) and athleticism, plus a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger who could use another big-play target.

On defense, Denver outside linebacker D.J. Williams finally is going to take his place among the game's top players at his position. One reason for that is the absence of middle linebacker Al Wilson, whom the Broncos cut earlier this offseason.

One scout told me Williams would be a star already if he hadn't played in the shadow of Wilson and other Pro Bowlers, such as Champ Bailey and John Lynch. Now that Williams will assume a more prominent role in that defense -- he's supposed to be playing more on passing downs now that Wilson is gone -- he'll become the player people can't stop talking about.

Now that I'm through with predictions, let's get to this week's version of Three and Out.

As much as I like the 49ers' offseason moves, the one thing that concerns me is how much third-year quarterback Alex Smith will develop without former offensive coordinator Norv Turner. After all, Turner's presence helped Smith make huge leaps of improvement last season.

The quarterback became more aware of the little things that affect a quarterback's success -- such as dropping back quicker and understanding subtle defensive adjustments before a snap -- and his confidence grew with each passing week. He also liked the downfield passing game Turner instituted after the 49ers used the West Coast offense in Smith's rookie year.

The upside here is that Smith is still working with his quarterbacks coach, Jim Hostler, who took over Turner's job as coordinator. The 49ers also will run a system that fuses Turner's offense with some West Coast concepts. So although Smith will be learning his third offense in three seasons -- which can be a recipe for disaster -- at least he'll be doing it with familiar faces. But if he takes a step back in a year when the 49ers should be brimming with optimism, the absence of Turner will have plenty to do with that.

Despite all the scrutiny still placed on the Cincinnati Bengals and their off-the-field issues -- for those who have lost count, they've had 10 players arrested in the past 14 months -- there is hope for their future.

A team source says the team was very encouraged by its recent draft, especially the fact that so many high-character players came out of it. This source emphasizes that coach Marvin Lewis has reached a point at which he's aware that there isn't much need to gamble on talented players with checkered pasts anymore. The problem, however, is that not all the bad seeds can be eliminated immediately.

As this source says, "It takes time to get rid of some of these bad-character guys. You can't get rid of them all at once because you still have to replace these players."

One such player Lewis already has dumped is linebacker A.J. Nicholson, who was released three days after police arrested him on a domestic violence charge in May. However, it will be interesting to see how much patience Lewis has with wide receiver Chris Henry, who's serving an eight-game suspension handed down by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. Henry's deep speed is such a key factor in the success of Cincinnati's wide-open passing attack that Lewis likely will keep him as long as possible.

It's a tough offseason for aging safeties. Robert Griffith, formerly of the Arizona Cardinals, is hoping to latch onto a team at age 36. Troy Vincent, who spent last season with the Washington Redskins, also is looking for a team that will take him on despite the fact that he's 36, as well.

Former Jaguars safety Donovin Darius isn't as old as those two -- he turns 32 on Aug. 12 -- but he's facing similar problems. After suffering season-ending injuries in each of the last two seasons -- a torn ACL in 2005 and a broken leg in 2006 -- Darius is trying to prove he still can be a fierce run defender. The Oakland Raiders didn't sign him after a visit last week, but Darius has met with Buffalo and hopes to find other suitors.

"What I want most is stability," Darius says. "I'm looking for an organization that is about winning and loyalty."

What he also needs is a team that will look past his limited coverage skills. Apparently, that was a big factor in the Raiders' decision to pass on him.

Jeffri Chadiha is a senior writer for ESPN.com.