Open market not kind to Collins

Updated: May 12, 2004, 5:29 PM ET

With more depth at QB, veterans like Kerry Collins are having a hard time finding starting jobs.

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By John Clayton
ESPN.com
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Kerry Collins didn't study the numbers.

Collins came into the league in 1995 when the league was expanding and at a time when the quarterback position was at its thinnest. His entire career has operated around the notion that teams are desperate for starting quarterbacks.

Kerry Collins played five seasons for the Giants, starting 68 games.

After the Giants drafted Eli Manning, Collins naturally took it personal and turned down a chance to stay in New York at his $7 million salary and instead hit the streets looking for a job. What he is now starting to realize is that it's a different NFL for quarterbacks than it was when Collins last went looking for a job in 1999.

Collins will end up with something, but it's probably not going to be a starting job unless the Raiders unload Rich Gannon, which is unlikely. What Collins didn't realize during his starting days in New York is a league full of young QB prospects developed around him. While Collins was putting up good numbers for the Giants, here were the numbers of quarterbacks who were developing on other teams:

Since 1998, 21 teams found their starting quarterbacks in the draft. Thirteen were first-round choices, including Manning with the Giants and Phillip Rivers with the Chargers. Both are likely to start. Four other quarterbacks from that group -- Marc Bulger in St. Louis, A.J. Feeley in Miami, Aaron Brooks in New Orleans and Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle -- were drafted and ended up starting for other teams through trades or signings.

There have been 90 quarterbacks drafted since 1998, the year Peyton Manning went to Indianapolis. That's an average of 13 a year, much improved from the eight or so that were drafted annually in the mid-1990s. Teams that draft quarterbacks obviously feel compelled to play them when the opportunity presents itself. Quincy Carter (Dallas), Josh McCown (Arizona) and Tim Rattay (San Francisco) are getting their chances to start because their teams invested time and money developing them.

Collins' release leaves only nine starters who will open the season 30 or older. Gannon is the senior citizen at 38 but he's a different quarterback since shoulder surgery, throwing more over the top. Brad Johnson of the Bucs is next at 35. Then there's 34-year-olds Brett Favre (Green Bay), Jeff Garcia (Cleveland) and Trent Green (Kansas City). Mark Brunell acquired the Redskins job at age 33. Drew Bledsoe recognized the youth movement around the league and renegotiated his contract to buy time for J.P. Losman to eventually replace him in Buffalo. The Titans' Steve McNair is 31.

"I've never really seen a time like this in the league," Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome said. "There is no room for experienced starting quarterbacks who lose their job. Teams are getting their quarterbacks high in the draft, and when you do that you have to play them."

All this is great for pro football in general, but bad for quarterbacks like Collins and other veterans still looking for work. It's not as though this was 1983, when John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly came into the league, but colleges are putting out more pass-savvy prospects of late. Ten quarterbacks have been taken in the first round of the past three drafts.

The influx of quality arms is allowing teams to stockpile quarterbacks in ways similar to developing prospects in baseball. By averaging 13 draftable quarterbacks a season -- 17 were taken this year -- teams have depth at the position. When the 49ers cut Garcia, Rattay had been around the system long enough to step in and offer some hope of doing well. Backlogs on certain teams make former third-stringers worth bounties in trades. Hasselbeck, Feeley and Brooks all were traded and netted the teams that drafted them good draft choices in return.

"I remember six or seven years ago when we couldn't find quarterbacks," Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi said. "I was worried back then."

Worry no more. The past seven drafts have given teams more luxuries at the quarterback position. The Giants, for example, can let go a quality quarterback like Collins and go with a potential franchise quarterback who is 10 years younger. The Bills can have Bledsoe and Losman.

The job market for Collins may not be better after the season than it is now because of the quarterback surplus. Over the next couple of years, only five jobs involving older quarterbacks may open -- Oakland, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Kansas City and Cleveland. Five of the nine starters older than 30 are on these teams, but each of these teams except for the Browns are legitimate playoff contenders and a good season will likely mean no change at quarterback.

And there are young prospects on some of those teams -- Chris Simms (Tampa Bay), Marques Tuiasosopo (Oakland) and Luke McCown (Cleveland).

	“	I've never really seen at time like this in the league. There is no room for experienced starting quarterbacks who lose their job. Teams are getting their quarterbacks high in the draft, and when you do that you have to play them. ”
		— Ozzie Newsome, Ravens general manager

Teams shouldn't squander this surplus. More than half of the league's backups are in their 20s. Former high-paid starters Brian Griese (Tampa Bay) and Charlie Batch (Pittsburgh) are 29, but they have more than 46 career starts. The league can't let young quarterbacks completing their first contracts to slip through the cracks. That list includes Jesse Palmer (New York Giants) and Mike McMahon (Detroit).

For franchises that are three deep at quarterback, they have the opportunity to fully use NFL Europe even more than in the past. Over the next couple of years, it's going to be harder to get young non-starters into the lineup. The Saints and Patriots jumped ahead of the curve by sending J.T. O'Sullivan and Rohan Davey to NFL Europe. Both showed they are good enough to play. Davey is expected to be Tom Brady's backup in New England. If O'Sullivan, whose Frankfort team is battling Davey's Berlin squad for NFL Europe top honors, doesn't beat out Todd Bouman in a year for the Saints backup job, he could draw interest from other teams.

Ron Wolf, the former Packers general manager, tried to draft a quarterback every year because of the importance of developing talent at that position. Too bad he's only consulting now because he'd love this time in the quarterback cycle. Increasing the practice squad size from five to eight would allow every franchise to have four quarterbacks around on a daily basis.

The only downside to this seven-year quarterback bonanza is what happens when these young quarterbacks reach the end of their contracts. David Carr's contract ends in 2005. Tom Brady, Michael Vick and McNair have to renegotiated in 2006. Jake Plummer, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Plummer, Brooks and others are signed through 2007.

Re-signing them will be expensive. Signing bonuses already exceed $10 million for quarterbacks, and these will be quarterbacks in their prime. But that said, with such an influx of young quarterbacks, coaches should have time to groom potential replacements if the costs grow too much.

Still, you have to feel sorry for Collins' situation. He entered the league at a time when the NFL was starving for quarterbacks like him -- smart, strong-armed pocket passers who can take teams to the Super Bowl. He came into the league at a time when 10-to-12 teams needed quarterbacks annually.

Now, he's 31. He's should be in his prime. But there aren't many jobs. Though he will find a job and eventually get a chance to play, Collins may have suffered the toughest blindside hit of his career by hitting the open market.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.