Sack numbers continue to decline

Updated: September 17, 2004, 7:26 PM ET

Defensive ends might see their sack numbers go down, but that doesn't mean they aren't doing their job.

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By John Clayton
ESPN.com
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Dwight Freeney appeared to be everywhere. He worked inside moves. He worked outside moves. He opened the NFL season on a Thursday night in constant pursuit of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

Yet his numbers appeared to be a little light. The Colts' No. 93 had two tackles and one sack for his efforts in a 27-24 loss to the Patriots. Welcome to the NFL of 2004. Pass-rushing defensive ends may have their uniform numbers sprinkled among the fans in the stadiums, but they are entering perhaps their most difficult season for numbers in NFL history.

Unless a team publicizes the quarterback pressure stats, the only way those outside the organization will know the value of their pass-rushing defensive ends is by breaking down game tape. But that's obviously not something the average fan is going to be able to do.

Sacks might be the most overrated stat in sports because they define perception more than reality. The perception is that great pass-rushers are the ones who average a sack a game. In the grand scheme of things, that's not a lot, one play out of 62.7 snaps a defender is on the field.

But those players who get the sacks also get the big money. Jason Taylor of the Dolphins, Trevor Pryce of the Broncos, Jevon Kearse of the Eagles, Simeon Rice of the Bucs, Michael Strahan of the Giants, Adewale Ogunleye of the Bears all make more than $6 million a year. Grant Wistrom wasn't a true pass rusher but the Seahawks handed him a $14 million signing bonus to try.

This year they may face some undeserved criticism if their individual success doesn't show in their sack numbers. Sackers are judged by their ability to get into double digits. Fourteen ends made it last season. But it won't be out of the question if less than 10 achieve that goal this season. The game has evolved to take away the stat that makes defensive ends household names and gets them the big-money contracts.

While the good pass rushers retain their value in their ability to disrupt a play, the changing blocking schemes make it more difficult for them to get sacks.

Look at Week 1. There were 59 sacks in 16 games, 3.6875 per game or less than two per team. That's more than half a sack less than last year's average of 4.265 a game. Defensive ends had only 19 of those sacks.

Sure, Kenard Lang of the Browns had a field day on Ethan Brooks of the Ravens, who was filling in for injured Jonathan Ogden.

The result was the only three-sack day of the week for Lang, who's never had more than eight sacks in any season.

Seventeen teams didn't have a defensive end who registered a sack. To determine which ends had good days or bad days comes down to the fine art of studying tape and not just looking at the box score to see who recorded sacks.

"I think part of the reason for the lack of sacks is that in the first week teams have come out running the ball better," Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome said. "You see a lot more running in the AFC."

Twelve teams had 100-yard rushers in Week 1. But a lot of things are designed to neutralize the effectiveness of the great defensive ends.

Quarterbacks have a better understanding of the internal clock needed to throw a pass. Drew Bledsoe is one of the few still adjusting. Bills coach Mike Mularkey put up a clock in offseason workouts in order to get Bledsoe to release the ball quicker. The good news for the Bills is he followed his league-high 49 sack season by being pulled down only once by the Jaguars in Week 1. The bad news is he didn't get the ball downfield, the Bills had only 147 net yards passing and they lost to the Jaguars, 13-10.

Blocking schemes can take away the great defensive ends. Quarterbacks can slide the protection to Strahan or Kearse on the left side of the line or to Freeney, Rice or Taylor on the right side. They can double them with a tackle and a tight end. To mix it up, they can match them up against one blocker and then have a back hanging in the backfield to take out his legs.

To make it even tougher, more teams such as the Texans and Vikings are creating moving pockets and going to the other side of the good defensive ends. Now, an end has to avoid two levels of blockers and then try to run 20 yards to get a sack.

Sacks, in general, have been in free-fall for the past five years. In 1999, there was a 4.65 percent chance of a sack on every play. It dropped from 3.9 in 2000 and 2001 to 3.6 in 2002 and 3.4 last season. There's a great chance it could fall below the modern-era record of 3.3 in 1994 this season.

Defensive tackles have been neutralized for sacks in the past couple of years by zone blocking. Teams focus three blockers to shut down the two tackles. Last year, the only defensive tackle to have double-digit sacks were Kevin Williams of the Vikings, and he spent a considerable amount of time at end. The sack numbers of defensive tackles like Warren Sapp and La'Roi Glover have fallen and a lot of it isn't because of declining skills. It's the blocking schemes and the quick releases of quarterbacks.

Week 1 showed how teams are adjusting, and some of the changes are dramatic. More teams are blitzing to get pressure on the quarterback. Safety Matt Bowen of the Redskins and linebacker Clark Haggans of the Steelers were the only players other than Lang who had multiple sack games.

The Dolphins tried a new trick. They had ends drop into coverage on the tight ends and they rushed two linebackers. Expect funky things like this to be visible all season. It's the only way to confuse blockers and get teams out of three- and five-step drops.

You're already seeing more defenses jumping between 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. That means more blitzing linebackers and safeties and more zone blitzes. Other than the Panthers, who are good enough on the front four to rush four, there aren't many teams that can get to the quarterback without mixing in funky strategies.

But while sacks could be down, it would be a mistake to devalue what speed rushing ends can do to an offense. Teams that don't have a pass-rushing threat will get carved up this season. Cornerbacks can't grab or make contact after five yards, so pass rush is more important.

Ends who have the ability to pressure the quarterback may be worth more than $6 million a year. Unfortunately, it may be hard to verify it by looking at their sack totals.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.