Successful runs can't last forever
As teams such as the Titans and Bucs have found out, winning runs in the NFL can't last forever.
Nothing lasts forever in the NFL, and sometimes the end can be unpredictable.
The Tennessee Titans, for example, thought they had another year left on a championship run that started in 1999 with a trip to the Super Bowl. Cap problems had been building for years as they do with any team loaded with talented players. But coming off a 12-4 season in 2003, the Titans thought they had another year, and gave it a run.
General manager Floyd Reese restructured the contracts of seven starters to free up salary cap room and found enough room to do long-term deals with linebacker Keith Bulluck and quarterback Billy Volek. But this was the sixth year of the Titans' run. That's a long time in this league, and because of the salary cap, they had to make some trade offs. They drafted young defensive ends and let Jevon Kearse go to Philadelphia in free agency. They hoped Tyrone Calico could step in as a threat at receiver, so they traded Justin McCareins to the Jets. The tight cap cost them the leadership of halfback Eddie George.
In the end, injuries killed the Titans and they finished 5-11. Now, $25.7 million over the 2005 cap and their run virtually complete, Reese and Jeff Fisher have to do what the Ravens did a couple of years ago. Veterans such as Brad Hopkins, Fred Miller and other longtime starters might go unless they're willing to forego their big salaries. They hope Steve McNair doesn't retire and that some of the young players they've drafted over the last two years can fill some voids.
Six years seems to be the benchmark for playoff runs, although great cap management and stable front offices can extend that. Look at the Green Bay Packers. Retired general manager Ron Wolf and former coach Mike Holmgren put together a seven-year run from 1993 to 1998 that produced six trips to the playoffs, including two Super Bowl visits. Holmgren left for Seattle and Wolf retired. In came Mike Sherman, who put together four straight playoffs seasons and two NFC North titles the last three years.
Now, the Packers cycle could be nearing an end. Brett Favre is 35. Though he probably won't retire, the Packers are at a crossroads. Sherman is giving up his general manager duties. The defense has had some shaky drafts of late and is getting worse instead of better. A young Vikings franchise has pushed the Packers to the limit in the NFC North the past two years and may be ready to surpass them. Next season, unless the defense gets better, the Packers might not be able to hold Minnesota off.
And if Favre retires, the run is completely over.
So how long are runs in the salary cap and free agency era? Four to six years is the benchmark, but improved cap management and the new stadiums and television contracts offer teams the chance to extend them a few years longer.
"It's hard to say how long a run can be, but if there is a new collective bargaining agreement, you might be able to go for a long time," Colts general manager Bill Polian said. "If there isn't a new agreement this spring, then it's going to be a guessing game."
Polian, like most general managers, is banking on a new deal soon. The projected cap for 2005 is $85.5 million, close to a $5 million increase from 2004. A CBA extension would eventually lead to salary caps in the $100-million range, but even more importantly, a new CBA would also build in long-term planning. For example, cap projections for the future will be spelled out unlike the current year-to-year guessing game. Knowing the future caps will help teams better prepare and remain competitive for longer stretches of time.
The Colts are in their fifth year of their current run. They've had four trips to the playoffs, including one to the AFC title game. Peyton Manning is only 28, so he has the youth to extend a Colts' playoff run for close to a decade if Polian continues to draft well on defense and manage the cap effectively.
Quarterback play should also have an impact on how long teams stay competitvie. This is a new golden age for signal callers. The final eight playoffs teams all have quarterbacks 28 years or younger, and several are in the middle of successful runs. Donovan McNabb, 28, is in his fifth year of a run that has included three NFC title appearances. Michael Vick, 24, is making his second trip to the playoffs in three seasons. Chad Pennington, 28, has three playoff appearances in four years. Ben Roethlisberger has had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever and is only 22. An incredible run could be ahead for him.
Polian is already locking in plans for future playoff runs. He reached long-term extensions with wide receivers Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley. Halfback Edgerrin James will be kept either by the franchise tag or a long-term deal. While 70 percent of the cap might be on the offensive side, the Colts continue to get closer to the type of players on defense that Tony Dungy needs to resurrect the "Cover 2" dominance he built in Tampa Bay.
Some of the pieces are already there. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are the perfect rush ends to drive opposing quarterbacks crazy. Bob Sanders is Dungy's John Lynch-type slugger at strong safety. Young corners such as Joseph Jefferson and Donald Strickland need to stay healthy and step up to handle those positions.
The problem for franchises is accepting when the run is over. It happened in Tennessee this season, and in Tampa Bay and Oakland in 2003. Bucs coach Jon Gruden has been taking unfair criticism for the Bucs 5-11 season because the Bucs' run had been on borrowed time for years. From 1997 to 2002, the Bucs missed the playoffs only once, and Gruden earned a rock star persona by capping off the run with a Super Bowl victory over the Raiders.
But the Bucs demise wasn't surprising, and there really wasn't a lot Gruden could do. It took a lot of draft choices for the Bucs to pull Gruden from the Raiders and with free agency growing less effective each offseason as a means to retool a team, draft choices are vital. Only one Buc draft choice from 2002, fifth-round safety Jermaine Phillips, remains on the roster. Defensive end Dewayne White and offensive lineman Sean Mahan are the only current starters from the five remaining 2003 draft choices. Though wide receiver Michael Clayton was a big hit this year, Gruden had to fill in the cracks with veteran free agents.
The Patriots have been a model of how to do things the right way after trying the veteran free agent route at the start of their run in 2001. Since then, they have focused on quality draft choices. Since 2001, they have filled almost half of their starting jobs with draft choices. They also had the luxury of trading for a Pro Bowl halfback (Corey Dillon).
But they, too, are entering an interesting era. Some of their linebackers and stars in their secondary are getting older. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is leaving after the playoffs to go to Notre Dame and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel could be the next Cleveland coach. Though they have the quarterback in Tom Brady to keep their run going for a long time, Bill Belichick has to make the right decisions to maintain the high level the Patriots are on.
A new collective bargaining agreement may be able to add a few years to a good run, but nothing is forever in the NFL.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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