Starting QBs, CBs found on first day
Research shows that starters from particular positions are generally selected on the draft's opening day.
One thing is certain now in the NFL: teams can't cheat on pedigree.
Next year, when teams begin to prepare for the draft, coaches and general managers will frequently state they're targeting the "best athlete available." On a lot of levels, the phrase is a misnomer.
The first rounds of drafts are geared for about seven main positions -- quarterback, defensive end, defensive tackle, left tackle, wide receiver, cornerback, and to a lesser degree, halfback. Conversely, guards, fullbacks, linebackers, safeties and place-kickers are, particularly in the cap era, devalued positions. The salary cap forces teams to focus on the value of a selection at a position as much as the athletic ability. It's not that those five positions aren't valuable because they are when it comes to filling out starting lineups. But to fit 53 players, including starters, into a salary cap, teams have to take some shortcuts, and it's easier to rob from the salaries of those five positions in order to overpay, if necessary, to keep players at the other seven spots.
| “ | We've always believed you have to get your starters from rounds one, two and three. I remember looking at a study that said 70 percent of the Pro Bowl comes from the early rounds of the draft.” | |
| —Steelers director of football operations Kevin Colbert |
But over the past two months, I've noticed a trend that is problematic for teams. Based on recent history, only one-third of first-round picks are going to get second contracts from their teams. After five or six years, teams are electing not to re-sign that player or he's already out of football. It's forced me to study depth charts closer to figure out where teams are getting that core group of players at quarterback, defensive end, left tackle, wide receiver and cornerback.
The results of two months of studying surprised me, in a sense. While there are few exceptions, it's become rarer and rarer each year to find teams starting anything other than players taken in the first day (opening three rounds) of the draft. Teams trying to beat the system generally find themselves in trouble.
Look at the breakdowns of each of those main positions, based on projected depth charts heading into next year.
• Left tackle: Alex Gibbs' blocking scheme with the Broncos and Falcons created starting jobs for two non-first day choices: Denver's Matt Lepsis, who was an undrafted tight end, and Atlanta's Kevin Schaffer, a seventh-round choice. Derrick Deese starts for the Bucs after years of being groomed in San Francisco. He was undrafted. The only other undrafted left tackle starting this fall is Barry Sims of the Raiders, who was projected to be a first-day draft choice before he injured his knee in the Hula Bowl coming off his final year at Utah. Jason Fabini, who starts at left tackle for the Jets, was a fourth-round choice.
Every other starting left tackle (27 in all) was selected in the first, second or third round. It proves two things: A left tackle needs the proven athletic numbers to rank in the top 10 of a draft to start, and the position requires one of the better tackle prospects to play it.
• Quarterbacks: Teams need first-round talent nowadays to compete. Fifteen first-rounders since 1998 are projected to start this fall, and that doesn't include Alex Smith of the 49ers. If Smith does start, 24 starters will have come from the first two rounds of the draft. The exceptions are Kurt Warner (Arizona), Jake Delhomme (Carolina), Trent Green (Kansas City), Tom Brady (New England), A.J. Feeley (Miami), Aaron Brooks (New Orleans), Marc Bulger (St. Louis) and Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle).
With approximately 14 drafted quarterbacks -- and three to four first-rounders -- coming into the league each year, the athletic demands of the position are escalating.
• Cornerbacks: Costs of the position keep soaring, so more corners are going in the first three rounds of drafts. If Antrel Rolle wins a starting job by opening day in Arizona, there will be only 11 projected starting cornerbacks not selected in the first two rounds. Two of those -- former fourth-rounders Anthony Henry of the Cowboys and David Barrett of the Jets -- benefited from the hysteria focused on free agent cornerbacks, who commanded much attention and signed several lucrative contracts the past two offseasons.
• Defensive ends: Teams tend to gamble more for those pass-rushers in the first round, but it's been interesting to watch teams scramble to sign them in free agency. What do Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor of the Cardinals have in common? They both received $5 million-a-year contracts, and both were taken in the third round. While there are a few exceptions, the starting defensive ends who are good come from the first day of drafts.
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"We've always believed you have to get your starters from rounds one, two and three," Steelers director of football operations Kevin Colbert said. "I remember looking at a study that said 70 percent of the Pro Bowl comes from the early rounds of the draft."
No wonder. Good organizations build through the draft, and the Steelers are one of the best. Half of their starters came from the first three rounds of their drafts, and five more came from the second day, but most of those picks were at safety, tight end and linebacker. Much is said about how New England's Bill Belichick coaches up undrafted overachievers, but his Patriots starting lineup has three first-round defensive linemen and four starting linebackers taken in the first three rounds.
It's an interesting age for scouting in the NFL, and teams can actually thank the fans. There's an information explosion when it comes to the draft. ESPN ratings for the two-day draft continue to grow. More and more Internet sites provide fans enough scouting reports and mock drafts that teams aren't letting those sleepers slip into the second day of the draft.
Former Cowboys general manager Gil Brandt annually charts the number of drafted players who weren't invited to the scouting combine. Those numbers have dropped from 48 in 2002 to 43 in 2003 to 37 in 2004 to 34 this year. The only player overlooked by the combine that went in the first three rounds this year was the Eagles' second-round choice, linebacker Matt McCoy from San Diego State.
That's pretty impressive to think that all of the workouts that followed the combine changed little. McCoy was the only player omitted from the combine who slipped into the top 100 of the draft. Kudos to National and Blesto, but it's part of an ever-changing landscape of drafts to come.
Thanks to the Internet and interest in the draft, more sites post 40-yard dash times, vertical jumps and lifting results minutes after the workouts are complete.
"There are times those numbers are out there before I get to the airport after I see the workout," Titans general manager Floyd Reese said.
Obviously great workouts don't necessarily produce great football players. Forty times and vertical jumps measure athletic ability, and those numbers are exposed to more people, meaning fewer and fewer surprises. Sure, teams will make mistakes in the first three rounds. Scouting isn't an exact science. For those mistakes, teams have to resort to free agency.
The second-day sleepers will make major impacts at positions such as safety, linebacker and even defensive tackle. But the days of finding the sleepers at left tackle, defensive end, quarterback, wide receiver and cornerback are fading.
Those teams relying on second-day talents at those positions are usually drafting in the first five picks of most drafts.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
