Veteran backs losing bargaining power
The wealth of impressive RBs has provided teams several options on the field ... and created a buyers' market in negotiations.
What's fantasy to some equates to headaches for others.
Touring around the NFL training camp practices this summer, I can't remember a year in which I've seen so many good running backs. This year's NFL draft certainly played a role. The impressive cast wasn't limited to high-profile choices Ronnie Brown of the Dolphins, Cedric Benson of the Bears, Carnell Williams of the Bucs and J.J. Arrington of the Cardinals. Guys up and down the draft board displayed promise.
| “ | You can become a pretty good football team if you run the ball and play good defense. Look what the Steelers did last year with Ben Roethlisberger. They made the game easier for him by running the ball.” | |
| —Titans GM Floyd Reese |
Lower drafted backs such as Dallas' Marion Barber, Houston's Vernand Morency, Jacksonville's Alvin Pearman, San Francisco's Frank Gore and Ryan Moats in Philadelphia look good. Also standing out were big, specialty backs such as Brandon Jacobs of the Giants and Nehemiah Broughton of the Redskins to quick, electric runners such as Darren Sproles of the Chargers.
The Cowboys even look as though they hit on a non-drafted prospect in Tyson Thompson.
All of this is good for fantasy football players. Those who had their recent drafts chose from a list that included 18 1,000-yard rushers from last season, 12 of which rushed for at least 1,200 yards. To call 2005 the Year of the Running Back is an understatement.
While the abundance of running backs is great for fantasy players, it has its downside in the "real world." Defenses have to scheme for more power football. That means starters are more likely to be worn down, affecting both the defensive line rotations and depth.
The bigger headache is those who become free agents next season. By my count, 45 backs hit the streets in free agency, including a number of veterans who were hoping to work out new deals this offseason. Seattle's Shaun Alexander, Baltimore's Jamal Lewis, Indianapolis' Edgerrin James, and Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook have gotten nowhere in their negotiations for long-term contracts.
From the teams' standpoint, it has become good business to wait. So many good backs make it a buyers' market. Backs in their late 20s have struggled to get long-term deals with big signing bonuses because teams are fearful of declining production. That said, even some younger backs are feeling the pressure.
Westbrook, 26, is frustrated that negotiations with the Eagles are going nowhere. Talks broke down last week and aren't expected to resume until after the season.
The story became such a big deal that Eagles president Joe Banner had to have a press conference on Thursday. Banner was asked whether Westbrook is like the hundreds of other players who don't get long-term deals and hit free agency.
"No, I think that he is better off than those hundreds of guys," Banner said. "Probably 95 percent of those guys didn't get an offer from their respective teams. I think that most people know that it was not acceptable to him, but it was a significant offer … just look at the running back position alone and see who is going to be available next year and find out how many of those guys have gotten active, significant contract extension offers. You will see that number is very small."
James hasn't gotten an offer from the Colts. Alexander hasn't gotten an offer from the Seahawks. Lewis can't figure out why he can't get the Ravens moving on his contract for 2005. The reason isn't disrespect. There are just a lot of very good running backs potentially on the market.
The business side may be a downer to the backs, but a glut of impressive runners is great for football. A good running back, or two, can change the complexion of a team's season.
"You can become a pretty good football team if you run the ball and play good defense," Titans general manager Floyd Reese said. "Look what the Steelers did last year with Ben Roethlisberger. They made the game easier for him by running the ball. They played good defense. Running made it easier for him. They ran the ball more than 70 percent of the downs except third-and-five or longer."
That's what the Titans will do this year. They traded a third-round choice for the luxury of having Travis Henry share time with Chris Brown, strengthening the running attack. The Panthers showed a couple of years ago that they could ride a power running game to the Super Bowl.
One interesting trend is whether teams will take the "using two backs is better than one" approach. The idea formula is using one back to wear down a team. Good backs get better as the game progresses. Stats bear out the value of a great running game.
However in 2004, 179 running backs gained at least 100 yards in 256 games. The records of the teams with those 100-yard backs was 135-44. That's a 75 percent winning percentage.
The old bench mark for good backs was 1,000 yards, but that no longer is a measure of success -- both individually and for the team. The 1,000-yard back who stays healthy for 16 weeks averages only 62.5 yards a game. The league rushing average is 116.65 per team.
The Vikings plan to use four backs, headed by Michael Bennett. The Browns are playing around with three backs -- Reuben Droughns, William Green and Lee Suggs.
Some egos might get bruised with the running back-by-committee approach. However, winning soothes egos. Jerome Bettis didn't particularly like letting Duce Staley handle the bulk of the carries early in 2004, but taking over for an injured Staley and a 15-win season eventually lifted his spirits.
Jeff Fisher plans to have Henry and Brown share the load because good teams need fresher backs in November and December when the weather turns cold and passing attacks are tougher to operate. But nothing succeeds better than success, and no coach is going to stop feeding a hot back for the sake of a philosophy. That's what's so interesting about this season. There are so many backs who have the ability to gain 100 yards on most Sundays.
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"Any more, [and] you almost have to use 1,600 yards as the bench mark for great backs," Colts general manager Bill Polian said.
Expect teams to top last year's total of 100-yard rushing games of 2004. In 2000, there were 117 100-yard games. The number increased to 124 in 2001, 136 in 2003 and 151 in 2003. Those increases suggest the number could go to 190 this year.
John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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