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A wise former NFL coach had an interesting theory on backup quarterbacks that holds up particularly well this season. His belief was a backup quarterback could win three games. He also believed those victories would quickly be balanced out with three losses.

Mark Brunell

Quarterback Washington Redskins Profile

2005 SEASON STATISTICS Att Comp Yds TD Int Rat 255 148 1638 12 3 90.3

It's more apparent than ever that quarterback is the most important acquisition in building a winning franchise. Look at the standings. The eight winning teams in the AFC all have good quarterbacks. Improvements in the NFC can clearly be linked to signal callers. Mark Brunell, who actually started the season as Washington's backup, Drew Bledsoe and Eli Manning helped three NFC East rivals to jump from 6-10 seasons to winning records and a slight edge over the Eagles in the division race.

For those lacking a solid passer, fortunately colleges are sending the NFL more pass-ready quarterbacks. Unfortunately, there still aren't enough to fill the starting lineups of 32 offenses. It's clearly created an environment of the "haves" and "have-nots."

As generally is the case, a few organizations that thought they were positioned well have suffered setbacks this season. Two playoff-caliber quarterbacks -- Daunte Culpepper in Minnesota and Chad Pennington with the New York Jets -- suffered season-ending injuries that put their 2006 campaigns in question. Pennington has had two rotator cuff operations and his career is in question to a point that the Jets will be in the market for a quarterback. Detroit's Joey Harrington and A.J. Feeley of Miami have struggled, and Baltimore's Kyle Boller has been sidelined, making the future of the position murky in those cities.

The quarterback theory, at least for me, has helped put some things in perspective. The Bills couldn't have been more timely in plugging Kelly Holcomb as the starter prior to a couple of AFC East home games last month. He won them both, but his record as a starter is now 2-2. The problem for the Bills is that they gave up a starting quarterback when their young replacement, J.P. Losman, was clearly not ready.

Bledsoe was 9-7 last year. No doubt, he struggled early in the season. He had difficulty getting 200-yard passing days. His sack number was high. Bills management thought Bledsoe wasn't good enough to get them into the playoffs and that was a feasible conclusion since he hadn't done it in the three seasons he was there. However, they were wrong in the big picture.

The Cowboys are making a playoff run with Bledsoe. He has the NFC's best quarterback rating (97.4) along with completing 63.9 percent of his passes and throwing 13 touchdown passes. And it can be argued the Bills have slightly more talent at wide receiver than the Cowboys. Maybe in the long run, they found the quarterback of the future in Losman. He is talented. He's just not ready now and it's important to recognize when the young quarterback can be ready.

The Jaguars and Bengals predictably are making playoff runs this season because they correctly gauged the development of their young quarterbacks -- Byron Leftwich and Carson Palmer. Both teams to win around 11 games and earn at least wild-card spots, and part of that is the byproduct of an easy schedule. Give a team an easy schedule and good quarterback play, and the playoffs are almost guaranteed.

Still, the Jaguars and Bengals have made the right moves and now are benefiting. Their quarterbacks will keep them in playoff contention next year under tougher schedules. Now and indefinitely, the Bengals and Jaguars are among the haves. With the Bills, we don't know, and only so much can be asked of Holcomb.

The Bills might have delayed a trip to the postseason by a year, but if Losman develops in the future, they can look past it. If he doesn't, it's another story.

Without there being 32 top level starting quarterbacks, it becomes vital to determine how good that backup is. Letting Bledsoe go to Dallas enchanced the playoff chances of the Cowboys and made the NFC East tougher.

Gus Frerotte is fine as backup, but a great deal shouldn't be expected with him as the full-time starter. He's 3-4 as Miami's starter with a chance to tie the Patriots for first in the AFC East, but he's barely holding onto his job. He has a 65.3 passer rating and 52.4 completion percentage.

Quarterbacks are competitive and proud and they hate to be labeled. Bledsoe entered Cowboys training camp bitter that the Bills didn't think he was good enough to be a starter and he was right. Brad Johnson will try to prove in Minnesota he's still good enough to be a winning starter after being let go by Tampa Bay. Brian Griese proved with last year's 5-5 finish and 5-1 start this season for the Bucs that he's still good enough to be a winning starter.

An interesting name to watch during the offseason is Bengals backup Jon Kitna. This is Palmer's franchise in Cincinnati and rightfully so. He's put together enough wins and enough 100 passer ratings to earn that right. Before Palmer, the Bengals' players believed in Kitna and he will be a free agent after the season that will intrigue some teams as a starter.

It's more apparent than ever that quarterback is the most important acquisition in building a winning franchise.

The Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Jets, Browns and Bucs will be among the main teams looking at the quarterback market next year. The Bucs could stay with Griese, but it's pretty clear he will be starting somewhere. Kitna will be in play, but the keys to the quarterback market during the offseason is who gets Matt Leinart of USC and whoever the Chargers surrender -- Drew Brees or Philip Rivers. Patrick Ramsey of the Redskins will get a job next year. Billy Volek is an interesting prospect to look at, too.

One of the most interesting decisions of the offseason will be what the Chargers will do for a backup quarterback if they let Brees or Rivers go. The Chargers know the value of a good backup and they have the cap room to keep both if necessary. But figuring if Brees is the one to go, they could franchise him and get a first-round draft choice in return.

Fans should remember what happened this season. If you go into the season with a backup quarterback, expect backup quarterback results. A few wins will eventually be followed by a few losses.

John Clayton is a senior writer for ESPN.com.