Garrett shows he's smarter than the system
Jason Garrett has the credentials to become a fine head coach, but he probably made the right decision to stay in Dallas for more seasoning, writes John Clayton.
The scary part of Jason Garrett's decision to stay in Dallas is not the $3 million annual salary he'll receive as an assistant coach. It's the fact he was offered the head coaching job by the Baltimore Ravens.
It's a good thing he was smart enough to decide to spend a few more years learning the coaching trade. In 2004, he was finishing his career as an NFL quarterback. In 2005 and 2006, he was quarterback coach for bad Miami Dolphins teams. Last season, he vaulted to offensive coordinator for a good Cowboys team and became a hot coaching property.
No one doubts Garrett will be a good head coach, but to think he was ready at 41 with only three years of coaching experience is dangerous. Only three years out of the league, he's still adjusting to not being a player. Head coaches have to distance themselves from the locker room and not be pushed around by players looking to push their agendas.
Garrett's not the problem, obviously. He's a rising star and the Cowboys are fortunate to keep him. The problem is the trend of NFL teams reaching for younger and younger coordinators when they might be better served to hire a veteran.
Three of the final four teams in the Super Bowl chase are coached by veterans. In baseball terms, they might be known as the retreads. Bill Belichick of the Patriots, Tom Coughlin of the Giants and Norv Turner of the Chargers have received pink slips from franchises before as head coaches. They learned from those bad experiences.
In fact, it's great to see Turner succeed with the Chargers. No coach was put in a more unfair position. It didn't matter what he did during the regular season. Turner was going to be judged on how he performed in the playoffs with one of the most talented teams in the league. In nine seasons with two franchises before joining San Diego, Turner had only one playoff team.
General manager A.J. Smith believed in Turner and took a chance. Players like him because he's a nice guy. And now the Chargers are only one victory away from a trip to the Super Bowl.
Owners too often rush to make changes at head coach for no logical reason. Football today consists of two constants: schedule and quarterback play. The better the quarterback, the better chance a team will go deep in the playoffs. Figuring that most teams are at that seven-to-nine win level as far as talent is concerned, the schedule can often make or break a team's playoff fortunes. The quality of the quarterback will determine whether a team will win a playoff game.
It's a simple league nowadays, and too many owners don't seem to get it. This trend of having quick triggers with coaches often sets them back. With so much money available in a $116 million salary cap, fewer starters are available through free agency or trades, and new coaches want roster overhauls.
Seven-win teams will turn into five-win teams because of too many changes. Change doesn't always bring success.
Since the salary cap era began in 1993, there has been an average of seven coaching changes a season. The occasional reach into the college ranks is temporarily on hold because of the failures of Butch Davis, Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino. Only three coaches were fired this season, but Joe Gibbs retired and Tony Dungy and Mike Holmgren might follow suit next week, bringing the total to six.
After next season, there will likely be a bloodletting of anywhere between eight to 10 coaches because if a coach doesn't make the playoffs in his first three years, he's on the way out. Where are these owners going to find the replacements?
The most fascinating study will involve what happens to the seven first-time coaches who were hired in 2006. Sean Payton (New Orleans) and Eric Mangini (New York Jets) made the playoffs in their first seasons, and dropped off this year. Mike McCarthy of the Packers -- considered the surprise choice of the seven -- will be the first to get a contract extension once he signs the four-year deal awaiting him after Sunday's NFC title game against the Giants.
Rod Marinelli (Detroit), Brad Childress (Minnesota), Scott Linehan (St. Louis) and Gary Kubiak (Houston) enter their third seasons with the pressure of making the playoffs. Kubiak might be the closest of the four, even though he's in the tough AFC South. Childress has a playoff team if Tarvaris Jackson takes the next step as a quarterback. Marinelli and Linehan have tough assignments.
Teams aren't going to get better until owners realize that first-time head coaches can only make so much of a difference, and their success is at the mercy of the schedule and the man behind center.
Since 2003, 17 former assistant coaches were given their first head coaching chances. From that group, Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati), Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville) and Lovie Smith (Chicago) received contract extensions. McCarthy and Romeo Crennel (Cleveland) will be the next to receive extensions.
From that group of 17, seven made the playoffs. Del Rio and Smith each made it twice and received contract extensions. Their jobs are secure. None of the others have made it a second time, but the scary trend is how one, Jim Mora of the Falcons, lost his job after three seasons. In his first season, he took the Falcons to the NFC title game.
Seasons ebb and flow based on schedules. Look at the situation in Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin was hired with only one year of coordinator experience in Minnesota and won the AFC North as a young, first-time coach. Two things helped. First, he had Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, one of the five or six best in football. Second, the Steelers played an easy schedule, against teams with a combined .453 winning percentage. Tomlin won 10 games.
Next season, the Steelers play the AFC South and NFC East, adding eight teams with .500 or better records, including six playoff teams. Fortunately for Tomlin, the Steelers' ownership understands the difficulties that come with first-place finishes, and won't turn on Tomlin if the team struggles. Other owners would, wondering why the drop-off took place.
For those who think experienced head coaches are being unfairly overlooked, sit tight. The trend of hiring first-time coaches will eventually create a bigger pool of failed coaches with head coaching experience. Crazy.
John Clayton, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame writers' wing, is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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