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More than anyone in San Diego would want to acknowledge, Bill Belichick has played a big role in the recent history of the Chargers.

Last year, the Patriots beat the Chargers in the playoffs after San Diego's 14-2 regular-season mark. Frustrated by two playoff losses in three years, the Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer. In came Norv Turner.

Two weeks into this season, the Patriots blew out the Chargers, 38-14, leading to a three-game losing streak and a 1-3 start. That planted the seeds of doubt in the Turner hire and his staff. (Of course, maybe we should've realized it might take a month or so for some of the changes instilled by the new coaches to take hold.)

On Sunday, the Patriots and Chargers meet for the AFC Championship and the chance to go to the Super Bowl. The Patriots are favored by two touchdowns because they are unbeaten, they are at home and they have the look of one of the greatest teams ever assembled in this league.

But the Chargers, considered perhaps the most talented team on paper, are starting to live up to their potential.

Can they pull the upset?

In many ways, facing this year's Patriots must feel like having to play the old Chicago Bulls back in the Michael Jordan era. Teams would gear up to make their best run, and Jordan would make some unbelievable jump shot or some long bomb from the outside to frustrate them. Like the Bulls, the Patriots are clearly a dynasty -- this is their fifth AFC Championship Game in seven years, and they are vying for their fourth Super Bowl.

But the Chargers aren't going to back down. Now that Turner has won two playoff games, they have some playoff confidence and momentum. They're becoming a beast that the Patriots, Colts and other teams must worry about for years. Their roster is young and just entering its prime. General manager A.J. Smith keeps backing up personnel who might leave in free agency with superior, young athletes.

Plus, the other teams in the AFC West have dropped down to a point that the Chargers should have no problem reaching the playoffs for the next few years.

The Chargers-Patriots rivalry isn't in the league of the Colts-Patriots, but it's becoming the next-best thing. These two teams really don't like each other.

LaDainian Tomlinson thought the Patriots lacked class in the way they celebrated during their playoff victory last season. That still probably brings smiles to the Patriots players. The Chargers want a little payback for the blowout loss in Foxborough in September.

The ultimate insult would be if the Chargers pull the upset and ruin the Patriots' undefeated season. That could send this rivalry over the edge because both teams will be back at it again next season. The Patriots and Chargers are blessed in 2008 with two of the easiest schedules in the AFC and have great chances to be No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.

The Patriots caused organizational problems with the Chargers by winning in San Diego last year. The Chargers would defy history if they can beat the Patriots on Sunday.

1. The Injury Factor: After seeing Chargers tight end Antonio Gates play an entire game despite a dislocated left toe, do you have any doubt Tomlinson and quarterback Philip Rivers will be on the field to start Sunday's game? If so, though, how long will they play?

Gates caught three passes but wasn't much of a factor in last week's victory over the Colts. Colts defenders gave him a free release from the line of scrimmage because they didn't think he would be much of a threat running. The Patriots might challenge him a little more to get him out of the game earlier.

Rivers has been playing with a bad knee for more than a month, so he's used to the pain and lack of mobility issues. The missed practice time might affect his timing with his receivers, though. Tomlinson won't have some of the explosiveness if he gets through the initial line of Patriots defenders, but believe it or not, the Chargers can still manage. Michael Turner is a dangerous insurance policy. He's a big back with speed and could salvage the Chargers' running game if Tomlinson wears down.

2. The Randy Moss Distraction: The Patriots wide receiver was pretty open about revelations he allegedly injured a longtime friend who has a restraining order out against him.

Moss had tried his best to be on good behavior since getting to New England. Once he realized the situation was going public, he went to head coach Bill Belichick and gained his support. Then he went public with the notion he was being pushed to pay $500,000 to keep the story quiet.

Though this is a distraction, this shouldn't affect him in Sunday's game. Moss has been focused all season, setting an NFL record with 23 touchdown receptions.

The bigger question is what the Chargers will allow him to do. The Jaguars double-covered him last week and limited him to one catch. That just allowed Tom Brady to set a playoff completion percentage record.

3. Slowing Down The Brady Bunch: It's hard to believe the Chargers will copy the defensive strategy used by the Jaguars. The Jags tried to play it safe and still got burned by Brady. They blitzed just eight times. Most of their defenses were to drop more defenders into coverage and try to force Brady to pass short.

At first, they confused Brady. Once Brady figured out what they were doing after a couple of series, he burned them with underneath passes.

The Chargers will probably be more aggressive. They have corners who can play more man coverages. They have a better, more aggressive pass rush than the Jaguars.

Brady is having a magical season, throwing a record 50 touchdown passes and operating the highest-scoring offense in the history of the league. So he should be able to master any defense. Because the Chargers will be playing loose and aggressive, they might as well try to get to him with pressure instead of trying to drop everyone into coverage.

4. The Former Charger Factor: The Chargers gave up on safety Rodney Harrison and linebacker Junior Seau years ago. Now, they give the Patriots age and experience at inside linebacker and safety, respectively. How each team handles their presence could be fascinating.

The Chargers will try to exploit them, figuring they're too old. Seau and Harrison will naturally be playing with chips on their shoulders. Something has to give.

5. Forgetting The First Game: Bill Belichick can make his team forget how easy it was for the Patriots to win their September meeting against the Chargers. They jumped to a 24-0 lead and kept attacking.

By jumping to the early lead, the Patriots eliminated the Chargers' running game. Tomlinson had only 18 carries and 43 yards. No team can concentrate on the run when it is down 24 points. The biggest difference in the Chargers since that game is how much better the defense has come together.

The Chargers were adjusting to changes from a Wade Phillips defense to a Ted Cottrell defense. The secondary in that game allowed Moss and Wes Welker to combine for 16 catches for 196 yards. Antonio Cromartie has come on as a starter and offers some man-to-man shutdown ability at cornerback. Eric Weddle has helped at safety. The Chargers have a better idea of what to do in this system.

6. The Ice Bowl Effect: Brett Favre has been legendary in the cold weather. He had his first true snow game in Green Bay last week against the Seahawks and had the best playoff quarterback rating of his career. The key is how the cold weather will affect Giants quarterback Eli Manning, who doesn't have a good track record in the cold.

Though Manning had a decent game against the Bills in a cold, windy day in Buffalo, Manning has had six regular-season cold-weather games in which the temperatures were below 40 degrees. He was cold in most of those games.

In cold-weather games, Manning has completed 48.7 percent of his passes for 1,254 yards and a 5.5-yard per attempt average. He's had four touchdown passes and seven interceptions, and his passer rating is a frigid 58.6.

7. Cornering The Market: The Giants were able to survive against the Cowboys despite injuries to three cornerbacks. Sam Madison and

Kevin Dockery were out because of injuries. Cornerback Aaron Ross missed time because of a shoulder injury. Ross expects to play, and Madison has only an outside chance of being on the field. But the depleted cornerback position will be in tougher shape against the Packers.

The Cowboys have three decent wide receivers, but two of them -- Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn -- were playing hurt. The Cowboys really didn't have the ability to spread them out and test all of the Giants' cornerback depth. The Packers can do that with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Koren Robinson. If Madison can't play, the Packers might try more spread sets to challenge the Giants' corners.

8. The Giants' Cup Runneth Over: In training camp, Tom Coughlin looked in a backfield that was five to six players deep with quality running backs. Remember, this is a backfield that lost Tiki Barber to retirement during the offseason. The Giants were so deep they were able to get a draft choice from the Packers for Ryan Grant, who might not have made the Giants' roster.

Now, Grant is a running star who could come back to burn them in the NFC title game. Grant is good friends with many of the Giants. The team believed in him enough to keep him last year after he missed the season in an off-the-field incident in which he cut his forearm. Brandon Jacobs and emerging backup Ahmad Bradshaw are going to be big worries for the Packers' defense, but Grant could be the star of the game. He's coming off a 201-yard game against the Seahawks.

9. The Field Conditions: The Giants have had an aggressive front four defense all season. One of their best approaches is to put four defensive ends on the field and rush the quarterback.

The field conditions could be a problem for the Giants. Lambeau Field is one of the best in football because of some of the underground heating, but any moisture will freeze with below-zero wind-chill temperatures for a night game. A slick field is an advantage for the Packers' offensive line. It can gain leverage on blocks against a lighter defense; Giants pass rushers might have a tougher time with footing.

Last week, the Packers' line was so good that Pro Bowl defensive end Patrick Kerney of the Seahawks didn't have a tackle.

10. Improvements From The First Meeting: The Packers blew out the Giants, 35-13, Sept. 16 in Giants Stadium to get the Giants off to an 0-2 start. Favre burned the Giants for 29 completions in 38 attempts for 286 yards and three touchdowns. But the Giants were adjusting to a new defensive system at the time.

Since then, the Giants have become sound on defense, Eli Manning has grown and the running game has been consistent. This is a better team than the one the Packers blew out in September. The Giants play better on the road, where they are 9-1 this season.

John Clayton, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame writers' wing, is a senior writer for ESPN.com.