Defense has Patriots in attack mode

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Having secured a third straight AFC East title with Saturday's shutout victory over the Tampa Bay Bucs, the New England Patriots can now begin looking seriously, and with a renewed degree of optimism as well, at defending a far more important championship.

Game ball
Barber Tiki Barber, Giants RB During the recent seven-game hot streak by Larry Johnson (100-plus yards every game, an average of 29 carries and 145.6 yards, and a total of 12 rushing scores), it's been hard to one-up the Kansas City running back. But with a club-record 220 yards on 29 carries, and two touchdowns, New York Giants tailback Tiki Barber did just that in Saturday's big 27-17 victory. In a game in which everyone figured the Giants would spread the field against the Chiefs and try to create advantageous skill-position matchups, Barber broke a ton of tackles. And running behind a makeshift line missing both starting tackles because of injuries, and with just two starters in their regular positions, he broke the franchise single-season rushing record in addition to the single-game mark. Barber had five runs of 18 yards or more and two rushes of 40-plus yards. Not bad, given that he had just 12 yards on nine carries in the first quarter, with five carries for 1 yard or less. Barber became the first Giants player to compile two 1,500-yard seasons. With 1,577 yards, he is now the NFL's second-leading rusher this season, trailing Seattle's Shaun Alexander by 91 yards with two games remaining.
Scout's take
Observations on the Week 15 action from a college scout, a retired defensive coordinator, and one former personnel director: • "Remember the old TV show 'The Fugitive?' Well, if Dr. Richard Kimble is still looking for the one-armed man who murdered his wife, he might want to arrange a police lineup with all the guys who played on the Kansas City defense on Saturday, because they're all suspects. They tackled like a whole team of one-armed men. How pathetic was that to watch? You can't play that way in a game that was as important as that one was. I can't wait to see the totals on how many yards the Giants had after initial contact. It's going to be a mind-boggling total, I'll bet." Wells • "Some team looking for a good backup tailback, a more than serviceable guy who can do a lot of things and gives a lot of effort, would do well to look at Jonathan Wells of Houston as a free agent next spring. Wells isn't going to cost much money and he's not bad. When he plays, he's pretty productive, and he's as good as a lot of No. 2 tailbacks in the league." • "I watched [Cardinals first-round cornerback] Antrel Rolle on Sunday and he's a lot more physical than I thought when I graded him in the draft last spring. He comes up and supports the run pretty nicely and he's definitely got ball skills. Too bad he missed all that time with a knee [injury], because it looks like he's going to be a good player, and you like to see your young guys who are going to be core players for you get some experience as a rookie, if they can." • "The Jets might have found their stopgap [quarterback] in Brooks Bollinger. The staff has done a nice job the last couple weeks doing things that play to his strengths, letting him run around a little bit, getting him outside the pocket, and he's played pretty well. I think he's thrown just one interception the last three or four games and he's made some plays. I mean, if the approach of the Jets is going to be that they'll be cautious with Chad Pennington and his shoulder, and not bring him back until maybe October or so, maybe they're better off going into the season with Bollinger, who knows the offense, than in spending to get some other journeyman guy." • "Hard to believe that the Eagles got no sacks against the Rams on Sunday, and have so few for the year. That's one of the big things [coordinator] Jim Johnson has to fix in the offseason. They let Derrick Burgess get away in free agency this spring and the guy is leading the league in sacks. Sometimes the scheme just isn't good enough when you don't have the players. Everyone looks at the Eagles and says, 'Well, they blitz so much, it's going to create [sack] opportunities.' But they haven't blitzed as much this season and their guys just don't compress the pocket. That needs to be addressed." • "Can we [dispense] with the talk about [Minnesota] quarterback Brad Johnson as a most valuable player candidate now, please? He finally played a good defense [against Pittsburgh] and it ate him up and forced him into the kind of mistakes he hadn't made against [inferior] teams." • "Yeah, I'll give it to you since you've bragged on him so much this year: Nick Saban [of Miami] can coach. Getting that bunch to .500 is a pretty incredible job. He's got it going in the right direction. The big thing for Nick now, because he's basically not a very patient guy, is to realize there still isn't a quantum-leap thing in this league. You still have to put the blocks in place and keep building, because there aren't a lot of quick fixes out there. But if he can somehow get himself a quarterback, that team could be pretty decent [in 2006]." • "[Cleveland rookie quarterback] Charlie Frye doesn't have great arm strength, but he's got pocket presence and feel, and he's going to be a pretty good player for the Browns. He seems to be the kind of guy whose teammates rally up around him, and you can never take that quality for granted in this league. It's a good thing to have, especially for such a young guy. You want the people around you to want to play for you, and it looks like his teammates definitely try hard for him." • "Look out for [Tennessee tight end] Ben Troupe. The guy is really starting to come on. With [starter] Erron Kinney injured, he's been getting more playing time and has emerged nicely. They've got a nice group of tight ends there, one of the best in the league, and [offensive coordinator] Norm Chow knows how to get the ball to those guys." • "Speaking of tight ends, Chris Cooley from the Redskins is a pretty good one. I mean, I know he's an H-back, really, but the kid has a feel for uncovering in the red zone and he had three [touchdowns] Sunday. That's 12 in two seasons for him and he's just a very clever young receiver." • "Jacksonville just scares [the heck] out of me, because they keep playing to the level of the competition. How can you let the 49ers hang around in a game the way they did? Their offense is so sporadic right now. It might sound ridiculous, but I won't be shocked if they go to Houston [on Saturday] and get beat. Houston always plays them tough and beat them twice a year ago." • "I'll bet Carolina gets [second-year wideout] Drew Carter on the field more in the final two games. He made a big play Sunday and with the Panthers' cutting Rod Gardner last week, he moved up the depth chart. That team has to figure a way to get the ball to someone other than Steve Smith in the passing game and Carter is a talented guy. Raw but talented." • "[San Diego first-round linebacker] Shawne Merriman really did a number on the Indianapolis offensive line. He went around them, over them, through them, you name it. Amazing what a pass rush can do, isn't it? That San Diego secondary isn't very good, but pressuring Peyton Manning up front made it a lot better unit on Sunday. Even [cornerback] Quentin Jammer played pretty well. The guy had five or six [breakups] and an interception. One of the better games he's played all year, even if he gave up some balls to Marvin Harrison."
Heard in the press box (in Indianapolis)
This may have changed now that Dan Reeves has been brought in as a consultant, but one prominent name that was said to be on Houston Texans owner Bob McNair's preliminary list of possible replacements for Dom Capers was Bob Stoops of Oklahoma. In the past, Stoops has demonstrated no interest in the NFL, but this was a relatively disappointing year for the Sooners, and at some point, most college guys are tempted to at least listen when the NFL comes calling. … Despite reports to the contrary, Dallas owner Jerry Jones has not formally offered coach Bill Parcells a contract extension, although he has made it clear he wants "The Tuna" around for more than his original four-year deal. The two sides will discuss options after the season. Parcells has one more season remaining at a salary of about $4.6 million. … Rumors of his impending demise aside, it looks like Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick and his staff will be back for the 2006 season. … University of Pittsburgh junior wide receiver Greg Lee, arguably Dave Wannstedt's best player on offense, will bypass his remaining eligibility and enter the 2005 draft, even though most NFL scouts feel he is only a middle-round prospect. Some school officials are not happy with what they feel is outside influence on Lee and will begin looking into the role an out-of-state agent might have had on his decision. … In addition to talks with defensive end Orpheus Roye about an extension that would keep him off the unrestricted market, Cleveland officials would like to get cornerback Leigh Bodden re-signed to a longer-term deal, even though he is eligible for only restricted free agency. An undrafted college free agent in 2003, Bodden has size and speed, and in extended playing time this season, has performed well. … He's keeping his mouth shut for now, but Oakland wide receiver Randy Moss (just 48 catches, 817 yards and six touchdowns) is not a very happy camper right now. Problem for him is, even if he airs his laundry, he won't be able to talk his way out of Oakland. … San Diego quarterback Drew Brees likes the no-huddle offense the Chargers have incorporated because it is similar to the one in which he played at Purdue. … All the rhetoric and adverse publicity aside, the Vikings aren't likely to trade quarterback Daunte Culpepper in the offseason. … Falcons owner Arthur Blank might kick the tires a little, but in the end, probably won't make a run at buying the Atlanta Braves, who went on the market last week. Blank, by the way, isn't thrilled by the performance of the Falcons this year. Even before the Sunday night loss at Chicago, the team had taken a step backward after going to the NFC title game in 2004.

Winners of three straight December games now and five of their last six outings, the Patriots are showing signs that they are back. And that's in large part because the New England linebackers, and not just the spiritual leader and medical miracle man Tedy Bruschi, are back. And back in a very big way.

If you know anything about Bill Belichick defenses, you understand the importance of linebackers to his brilliant scheming. Linebackers, and particularly the kind of hybrid, edge athletes whose versatility has always been the hallmark of Belichick defenses of the past, are essentially the most critical chess pieces in his 3-4 scheme. They are the defenders Belichick most loves to tinker with, the guys that he most uses to create confusion and wreak havoc, the players whom his intricacies revolve around, the players who give headaches to opposing quarterbacks.

Sure, down linemen are always important to any defense, and that was demonstrated this season during the extended absence of Richard Seymour to injury. But if you really want to plumb the depths of Belichick's genius, to get dizzy just trying to predict who is lining up where, watch his linebackers.

On Saturday afternoon, you couldn't miss them, that's for sure.

The starting quartet of Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin and Willie McGinest combined for 30 tackles, six sacks, two forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and, just for good measure, one pass defensed in the 28-0 whitewashing of a good Tampa Bay team that led the NFC South entering the contest. But truth be told, Saturday really was no fluke.

Ever since the return of Bruschi for the Oct. 30 game against Buffalo, and the shuffling of the unit that accompanied his comeback, the New England linebackers have performed admirably. In the last eight games, the starting linebackers have combined for 132 tackles, 13 sacks, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, one interception and 17 passes defensed. Those are monster numbers under any circumstances, but especially so when one considers that the return of Bruschi to the starting lineup was but one of the linebacker moves enacted by Belichick and first-year coordinator Eric Mangini.

In addition to inserting Bruschi in the lineup, the Pats' brain trust moved Vrabel to one of the inside spots in the 3-4, after he had played most of his New England tenure outside. At the same time, Colvin, who played lights-out in the team's Super Bowl XXXIV win against Philadelphia last season, aligning mostly at end, became a full-time starter. The only holdover from the four linebackers who started in the season opener -- at least lined up in the same spot as he did against Oakland on Sept. 8 -- was McGinest.

But sometimes change can be good, and for the struggling New England defense, the wholesale revamping of the linebacker corps has been one of several factors that rescued the Patriots' season. In the first six games, with Vrabel and McGinest flanking the newcomer inside tandem of Chad Brown and Monty Beisel, the Patriots surrendered an average of 27.3 points, 355.5 yards and 3.2 offensive touchdowns, while posting a 3-3 record. Over the eight games since the extreme linebacker makeover, New England has allowed 15.6 points, 326.8 yards and 1.6 touchdowns, and is 6-2 in that stretch.

Not that the changeover was all that facile. In fact, in the first five games after all of the linebacker tinkering, the Patriots were actually worse than in the first six outings of the season. The painful breaking-in period for four guys who had to become reacquainted with each other, and with their new roles, included averages of 23.0 points, 425.8 yards and 2.4 touchdowns surrendered. But look at what the New England defense has done in its last three victories: The Pats have permitted just 10 points, allowed one touchdown and limited their victims to a microscopic 161.7 yards per game.

Colvin has sacks in four straight games and five for the season. McGinest has four sacks in the last eight outings. Despite playing with less freedom on the inside, Vrabel remains a big-play defender. And Bruschi, well, what more can be said about him? It has been a matter of getting the right people in the right places, finally, and letting them play.

Belichick and vice president of personnel Scott Pioli, the premier talent evaluation duo in the league, can be forgiven for their mistakes with Beisel and Brown, who don't get on the field very much anymore. No one could have predicted that Bruschi, who suffered a stroke and then underwent a surgical procedure to repair a small hole in his heart, would have returned ever to the field, much less in 2005. And the retirement of solid run-stuffer Ted Johnson just before camp commenced in the summer, simply added to the crisis situation at linebacker. And so the Patriots gambled a bit, and uncharacteristically missed on Brown (old and brittle) and Beisel (a career special teams guy New England brass was convinced it could turn into a starter). Everybody in the league whiffs on player moves at times, and the Brown-Beisel errors were among the few the Patriots have made under Belichick's stewardship.

With the recent standout performances by the Pats' linebackers, though, not many people remember how poor the team's inside starters in the 3-4 were at the outset of the season.

Notable, too, was what the return of Seymour to the lineup has meant to the defense. The veteran down lineman is a player feared by opponents, not just because he can play end in the 3-4 and slide inside to tackle in the 4-3, but because Seymour can dominate for long stretches of games no matter where he is aligned. Getting Seymour back from injury has allowed New England to start the same front seven now for six straight weeks. And more important, it has allowed the Patriots to begin shutting down their opponents' run games, and in rather dramatic fashion.

In the first eight games, the Patriots gave up 128.9 rushing yards per game, and 4.0 yards per carry, and ranked 27th in the league in defense versus the run. With an intact starting front seven in the last six contests, New England has allowed just 60.1 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt, and statistically now ranks No. 6 versus the run (the Pats were No. 11 going into the Tampa Bay matchup). In that six-game stretch, only one opponent has rushed for 100 yards, four were held under 80 yards and the last three totaled a paltry 85 yards.

The Pats remain somewhat suspect on defense -- only four players have started every game in the same spot -- particularly against the pass. After all, the Pats, remarkably, have used seven different starters at strong safety. And ever since Rodney Harrison went down with a catastrophic, season-ending knee injury on Sept. 25, no Patriots strong safety has started more than two consecutive games. New England has lined up with journeymen such as Michael Stone (released by St. Louis in the preseason), Arturo Freeman (cut by Green Bay in camp) and Artrell Hawkins (a lifetime cornerback who had never played safety until three weeks ago) at strong safety, and so the secondary remains an area of concern, and rightly so.

Still, in the big picture, the Pats, whose offense will always be competitive as long as Tom Brady is perpendicular, have gotten much better. A defense that surrendered seven games of 400 yards or more in the first 11 outings, all of them in an eight-game stretch, has tightened up considerably. And when AFC opponents look over their shoulders now, their throats may constrict a little, because that emerging specter on the horizon is the shadow of the Patriots gaining ground on them.

Here's why the Patriots were interested couch potatoes: Because they've got visions of a second, redemptive shot at the Colts in the playoffs. Even, of course, if they're not looking ahead. And here's what they saw: The Colts' offense struggling to move the ball against an active, athletic Chargers 3-4 defense. The Indianapolis line flummoxed by a 3-4 pass rush. The Colts scoring just twice, both when provided short-field situations on takeaways, against a basic, three-man front. Yep, the same kind of 3-4 front the Pats play, and have used so successfully in the past against the Colts.

Sneaking a peek at the projected playoff brackets, something Belichick-coached players would never do, it is more than reasonable to think that, on the weekend of Jan. 14-15, the Patriots will be in the RCA Dome for a divisional-round matchup against the Colts, who walloped them 40-21 on Nov. 7 at Gillette Stadium. In that game, Peyton Manning threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns and shredded the New England defense. But there have been times in 2005, and Sunday's loss to the Chargers was hardly the lone notable occasion, in which the Colts' offense has experienced problems against a 3-4. Let's get this straight: No defense ever completely baffles Manning, and the Colts star has a 100.1 passer rating this season in the seven games in which he faced a 3-4 defense, not appreciably lower than his overall efficiency mark of 104.3 for the season. Until Sunday's loss, he had a 6-0 record versus 3-4 defenses in 2005. But eight of Manning's 10 interceptions this year, and 10 of 16 sacks, have come against 3-4 defenses. And the outings against New England and San Diego represented his only 300-yard performances against 3-4 fronts.

Of course, it is a bit unfair to categorize those games, because most 3-4 teams don't play three-man fronts in passing situations, right? But Manning will throw on any down, and on Sunday afternoon, the Chargers were bringing heat no matter the down and distance. Not all of this should be focused on Manning, because his line looked like a bunch of human turnstiles Sunday, and he had defenders in his face all day.

Against the Steelers, even in a victory on Nov. 28, the Colts' receivers had problems reading the Pittsburgh coverages, made faulty route adjustments, and had their quarterback frustrated. So, more than just confusing Manning at times, 3-4 defenses have more accurately addled the Indianapolis offense as a whole in some instances this season. That's not to suggest that San Diego on Sunday provided the rest of the AFC a blueprint for dispatching the Colts in the playoffs. Give him time and Manning will figure out a solution, pass it on to his teammates, and make things work.

It is notable, though, that the Chargers have sacked Manning four times in each of their last two meetings: last year and Sunday afternoon. In 126 starts, Manning has been sacked more than three times in just seven games, and only two times, both versus San Diego, in his last 38 outings. Colts offensive line coach Howard Mudd had better get the situation rectified in the next four weeks or so. Because the Patriots are coming on, and in mid-January, they're probably coming to the RCA Dome with vengeance in their hearts. And with visions of how San Diego overwhelmed the Colts' pass protections schemes in their memories.

Rex Grossman

Quarterback Chicago Bears Profile

2005 SEASON STATISTICS Att Comp Yds TD Int Rat 16 9 93 0 1 47.1

OK, we agree that as frustrating as it is for we media types, there simply are some things that not even the discerning eye of an experienced coach can ascertain before flipping on the video machine the morning after a game. But in the case of the Bears' play at the quarterback position, well, Smith would have to be Mr. Magoo (or worse) to have not concluded that Grossman gave the offense a rhythm, a precision, a balance, for gosh sakes, that had been lacking under Kyle Orton over the last several weeks.

In replacing Orton for the second half, Grossman completed 9 of 16 passes for 93 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception, which he fortunately got back when Atlanta safety Keion Carpenter fumbled the pickoff at the Falcons' 1-yard line. Not exactly scintillating numbers, agreed, but better than Orton has managed in some games. Orton had fewer than nine completions and less than 93 passing yards in three of his 14 starts, including Sunday night. Against the Falcons, he completed just 2 of 10 passes for 10 yards.

The rookie fourth-rounder from Purdue has won 10 games (in the convoluted logic of the NFL system, Orton gets a win for Sunday night, because he was the starter) and performed beyond the Bears' wildest expectations. But judging from the newfound spring in the step of the Chicago offensive players when Grossman went into the game, and the tempo with which the unit operated with him in the contest, it's time to end the Orton Era. At least until next summer in training camp, when Smith and his staff can throw open the competition and let the two quarterbacks battle for the No. 1 job, provided the star-crossed Grossman doesn't fall down an open manhole between now and next July.

Smith can peruse the tape all he wants. He'd be wise to remember, while doing so, this old coaching adage: "The tape doesn't lie." Only if he has lying eyes, or dozes off watching Orton throw the ball everywhere but to open receivers wearing a giant "C" on the side of their helmets, will Smith keep the rookie quarterback in the lineup. The smart money says that Smith, a smart man, makes the quarterback switch a permanent one.

Here's an interesting statistic: In the 75 wild-card round, divisional round and conference title games played in the NFC since 1990, the year the league adopted the current playoff format, the winning teams averaged 29.2 points. But losing teams in those games averaged 14.7 points. Essentially, those numbers mean that, to have won a playoff game in the NFC over the previous 15 seasons, you basically had to score about 15 points. Through the first 14 games of this season, all of them started by Orton, the Bears have averaged 16.1 points. Yeah, that's more than 15, but not much more. The skinny differential doesn't leave much room for error, and Orton is an error-prone quarterback that Chicago can't afford to have leading it into postseason play. Even with the league's most suffocating defense, the Bears will need points in the playoffs, and Grossman seems to be the guy who can provide them.

The most lopsided Redskins victory in the 45-year history of the heated series, the 35-7 shellacking improved Washington to 8-6. It was the Redskins' third win in a row, following an ugly three-game losing streak, and if the season ended now, the Skins would own the NFC's final wild-card berth. But the season doesn't end yet, and that just adds to the rivalry intrigue for Washington, which faces two NFC East rivals -- the New York Giants on Saturday and the Philadelphia Eagles on New Year's Day -- in the final two games of a roller-coaster season.

Win those two contests, the first at home and the season finale at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Redskins are into the Super Bowl derby, somewhat improbably. Almost as improbable as a struggling Mark Brunell throwing four touchdown passes in just 20 attempts. Or of defensive end Phillip Daniels, who had only 5½ sacks in his previous 34 games dating back to the 2003 season, notching four sacks against the Cowboys Sunday afternoon. But both those things happened, and now, courtesy of a late-season surge, the Redskins could be back in the playoffs for the first time since 1999. And maybe back in the rivalry business again, too.

Then again, if you are a Texans fan who was hoping to see Southern Cal tailback and playmaker nonpareil Reggie Bush in a Houston uniform, you might not be too thrilled with Sunday's 30-19 victory over Arizona, which lost quarterback Kurt Warner for the rest of the year with a knee injury. The victory sets up the season finale against San Francisco as a real "Bush Bowl," which it had not been before Sunday's events. You see, head-to-head results don't enter into the tiebreaker when it comes to draft position. So if the Texans were 1-14 entering the finale, and San Francisco was 2-13, and the Texans won to finish the year at 2-14, it wouldn't have mattered in the draft-slot tiebreaker. Ties in the draft are broken by strength of schedule, with the team that has the weakest aggregate opponents' record getting the top spot.

At this point, Houston's opponents have a .544 winning mark, and San Francisco's are at .587. It would have been difficult for the Texans to catch the 49ers in terms of winning percentage of opponents, so if both teams finished 2-14, Houston almost certainly would have gotten the top choice, and most likely Bush.

But now the teams will go into the finale with two victories apiece, and the loser gets the rights to Bush, since there are no other two-victory franchises. Notable, among several things, in the Houston victory: Linebacker Jason Babin, a 2004 first-round pick for whom the Texans surrendered three draft choices to get into position to select, had two sacks. Those were the first two sacks of the season for Babin, who has been an abysmal flop as an edge rusher, and now has all of six sacks in two seasons.

Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

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