Joke is on Browns, Bills, Raiders
The winners are already in the losers' heads, of course. The Raiders, Bills and Browns don't know if they can beat these teams because they haven't; not for a while, at least. So how exactly did this ownership of one team happen? And what are the chances of the streak ending this year?
Browns and Steelers
Why the Steelers always win: Pittsburgh has a defense that's harder to read than an Augusta green. Browns quarterbacks -- Tim Couch, Kelly Holcomb, Jeff Garcia, Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson and Bruce Gradkowski -- have completed only 51 percent of their passes during the losing streak and have been sacked once every 11.4 drop-backs. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger and other Steelers QBs have hit 60.2 percent, getting sacked almost half as often, once per 19.6 passing plays.
The Steelers "blitz almost every down and get to the quarterback," said a former Brown. "Zone blitzes from everywhere, every down so they confuse you. The Browns run basic coverages and barely go get the quarterback. Not really any pressure at all. So the quarterback can sit back there all day and make his reads."
Chances of the streak ending in 2009: Not good. The Browns' schemes will be better under Eric Mangini, but not enough to faze or frighten the defending champs.
Raiders and Chargers
Why the Chargers always win: San Diego's blitz packages take advantage of Oakland's constantly reshuffled pass protection. Oakland has used 11 different starting offensive line combinations in the 11 losses. Couple that with an offensive playbook that forces quarterbacks to drop deep and hold the ball behind a line that can't protect them in the first place, and you see why Chargers players say privately that the Raiders are a "pad your stats" game. San Diego's substitution packages -- pulling two defensive linemen for linebackers, adding speed -- have accounted for 46 sacks during the winning streak. "The Raiders quarterbacks drop deep, hold the ball, and that always slows them down," said former Chargers DE Igor Olshansky, now a Cowboy. "That's why we had success against them."
Chances of the streak ending in 2009: Better than it appears. The Chargers open against the Raiders, and the past two years have taught us that San Diego is capable of anything during the regular season.
Bills and Patriots
Why the Patriots always win: Nobody adjusts like New England, and the Patriots have beaten the Bills 11 times by a combined score of 321-96 with a variety of schemes and players. In 2007, Tom Brady topped 300 yards in both games. Before last season's finale, the Pats designed a bevy of route combinations to expose backup CB Leodis McKelvin, subbing for injured Jabari Greer. But 30 mph winds and 65 mph gusts changed that plan, and the Pats won with 168 yards rushing, with quarterback Matt Cassel attempting only eight passes. "I played the Bills seven times," said former Patriots fullback Heath Evans, now a Saint, "and every single game plan was drastically different."
Chances of the streak ending in 2009: In theory, the Bills should have the offensive talent to surprise the Patriots, like the Dolphins did last year. But with Brady back, Buffalo might have to surprise the Patriots to the tune of 35-plus points, which would be a little too surprising.
Seth Wickersham is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and a columnist for ESPN.com.
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