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Close wins don't forecast future success

The 2007 Broncos are specializing in winning nail-biters, but their luck might run out over the course of the season.

Originally Published: October 26, 2007
By Aaron Schatz | FootballOutsiders.com

From 1996 to 2006, Denver Broncos kicker Jason Elam averaged one "clutch" field goal per year. A clutch field goal is defined as a field goal that ties or wins a game in the final minute or overtime. This year, Elam already has had three in just six games. Those three field goals gave Denver all three of its wins.

How rare is it for a team to have three close wins this early in the season? Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only 24 other teams have won three times by a field goal or less in their ...

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