Week 17: Numbers Crunching
Each week, Football Outsiders takes a look at every game on the NFL schedule with a mix of interesting numbers and in-depth statistical analysis. Much of the analysis is based on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent. DVOA and Football Outsiders' other advanced stats are explained here.
All times Eastern.
Seahawks at Falcons (Sunday), 1:00 p.m.
• More Seahawks-Falcons: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Saints at Bears, 1:00 p.m.
• More Saints-Bears: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Bengals at Dolphins, 1:00 p.m.
• More Bengals-Dolphins: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Lions at Packers, 1:00 p.m.
• More Lions-Packers: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Jaguars at Texans, 1:00 p.m.
• More Jaguars-Texans: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Panthers at Buccaneers, 1:00 p.m.
• More Panthers-Buccaneers: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Bills at Eagles, 1:00 p.m.
• More Bills-Eagles: Intel Report | EA Simulation
49ers at Browns, 1:00 p.m.
Kellen Winslow has been called for 12 penalties this year, the most of any offensive "skill position" player. That includes five false starts and four calls for offensive pass interference.
• More 49ers-Browns: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Steelers at Ravens, 4:15 p.m.
Pittsburgh's offense has more running back carries than any other offense and its defense has faced fewer running back carries than any other defense.Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two of the league's four worst offenses on second-and-long.
Chargers at Raiders, 4:15 p.m.
The Chargers lead the NFL in value on punt returns and are eighth in value on net punts. The Raiders are last in the league in value on punt returns and are 28th in value on net punts.San Diego has blitzed only six or more defenders on 3.6 percent of plays, less often than any other defense. Oakland has faced only six or more defenders on 5.0 percent of plays, less often than any other offense.
Cowboys at Redskins, 4:15 p.m.
Washington runs 38 percent of the time when using three or more wide receivers, more often than any offense except for Indianapolis.Washington's defense ranks second in DVOA in the first half of games but 26th in DVOA in the second half. If we cut the field into five 20-yard chunks and analyze each one, Washington's offense and defense are both better between the 40s than in any other area.
• More Cowboys-Redskins: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Rams at Cardinals, 4:15 p.m.
St. Louis throws an interception on 14 percent of drives, more often than any other offense. Arizona throws an interception on 13 percent of drives, which ranks second behind St. Louis.St. Louis is the league's worst defense against the pass on third down. Arizona is the league's worst defense against the run on third down.
• More Rams-Cardinals: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Vikings at Broncos, 4:15 p.m.
Minnesota's offense is below-average on both first down and third down. But the Vikings are the fourth-best offense in the league on second down, primarily because of their running game. The Vikings average 7.1 yards per carry on second down. No other team averages more than 5.4 yards per carry on second down and only two other teams (Denver and Seattle) average more than 4.6 yards per carry on second down.In 58 runs on second-and-10 or longer, the Vikings are averaging 9.8 yards per carry. The Vikings have scored five rushing touchdowns on second-and-10 or longer. The other 31 NFL teams have combined for six rushing touchdowns on second-and-10 or longer. In the first eight games of the year, through his record-setting game against the Chargers in Week 9, Adrian Peterson averaged 6.4 yards per carry with a 50 percent success rate. Since Week 10, Peterson has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry with a 32 percent success rate. (This has less to do with Peterson hitting a "rookie wall" and more to do with Peterson hitting a "nine-men-in-the-box" wall.)
• More Vikings-Broncos: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Chiefs at Jets, 4:15 p.m.
The Jets have gained an estimated 16.0 points worth of field position from good kickoff returns, second in the league behind Cleveland. The Chiefs have lost an estimated 15.3 points worth of field position from bad kickoff returns, the worst figure in the league.The Chiefs have the league's worst offense on second-and-short (1-3 yards to go). The Jets have the league's worst defense in the same situation. Over the entire season, the Jets have been called for defensive offsides, neutral zone infraction or encroachment only once: Jonathan Vilma in Week 5 against the Giants.
• More Vikings-Broncos: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Titans at Colts, 8:15 p.m.
Tennessee's Rob Bironas leads all kickers in value on field goals, where he has scored 8.5 more points than the average kicker would if given the same opportunities. Indianapolis' Adam Vinatieri is in last place among all kickers, scoring 11.7 points less than the average kicker would if given the same opportunities. Bironas has hit 11 field goals of 40 yards or more this season, with only two misses. Vinatieri doesn't have a single field goal from 40 yards or more, but he has three misses.While the Titans have been great against the run this year, they struggle to stop opponents on short-yardage runs. They've allowed conversions on 77 percent of runs in power situations (third down, fourth down or the goal line with 1-2 yards to go), which ranks 29th in the NFL. The Colts have converted 77 percent of runs in power situations, better than any other offense.
• More Titans-Colts: Intel Report | EA Simulation
Aaron Schatz is president of Football Outsiders Inc. and the lead author of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 and 2008.
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