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The Broncos, blown out by the lowly Raiders in Week 13, were no match for the surging Jets, right? Wrong. Jay Cutler (357 passing yards, two TDs) outdueled Brett Favre as Denver left the Meadowlands with an impressive 34-17 victory and solidified its hold of first place in the AFC West. ZOOM GALLERY

Week 13 analysis: Short story

By John Clayton, ESPN.com

SAN DIEGO -- Fourth-and-1 decisions are tricky. Momentum is gained or lost by the outcome of these plays. On Sunday, fourth-and-1 decisions and how teams handled the negative outcomes of those decisions separated the contenders from the pretenders in the NFL playoff race.

Longtime Penn State coach Joe Paterno always preached to his defensive players that an early goal-line stop on fourth-and-1 can propel a team to victory. That wasn't the case Sunday, as many first-half failures turned into second-half successes.

Take the Colts-Browns game for example. Trailing 6-3 with 1:09 left in the first half, the Colts were thwarted on back-to-back plays. On third-and-1, RB Joseph Addai was stopped for no gain. Then on fourth down, Colts QB Peyton Manning fumbled on a sneak.

Those who follow the Browns called it the team's best goal-line stand since re-entering the league as an expansion team. The only problem for Cleveland was that the Colts' defense was even better. Thanks to a spirited defensive effort against the Browns' feeble offense, Indianapolis was able to sneak out of town with a 10-6 victory, solidifying its status as the leading wild-card contender in the AFC. The Colts are now 8-4, and their closing schedule is the second-easiest in the league.

Leading 15-7 toward the end of the first half in San Diego, Falcons coach Mike Smith could have put the dagger into the floundering Chargers by kicking a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 1. But Smith didn't spend $34.5 million of Arthur Blank's money on 244-pound RB Michael Turner to play it safe. Smith went for the touchdown, but linebackers Tim Dobbins and Brandon Siler stopped Turner for no gain.

"I think the one thing that helped us was that it was right before halftime,'' Smith said. "We were able to get in the locker room and talk about it and we were also going to get the ball back with the first possession there in the second half. This is a resilient football team.''

Falcons QB Matt Ryan said the key is staying positive. At halftime, he went around the locker room and tried to encourage his skill players and blockers. The Falcons came out in the second half and drove to the Chargers' 20. Then, Falcons WR Brian Finneran had the ball stripped by Quentin Jammer. Safety Eric Weddle picked up the ball and ran 86 yards to pull the Chargers within two, 15-13.

The confident Falcons never panicked. San Diego's two-point conversion failed, and Atlanta regained control of the game and won 22-16.

Heading into Sunday's action, teams were successful on fourth-and-1 71.4 percent of the time. But fourth-and-goal at the 1 had only a 45.4 percent success rate. Tied at 28 with two minutes left against the Panthers, Packers coach Mike McCarthy elected to kick a field goal, but it ended up costing him the game. A long return on the ensuing kickoff and Jake Delhomme's 54-yard heave to Steve Smith set up a 1-yard touchdown, giving the Panthers a 35-31 win.

Some questioned McCarthy for giving the ball to fullback John Kuhn on third-and-goal from the 1. After Kuhn was stopped, McCarthy took the points, but gave the Panthers time to move the ball.

The Giants survived a failed fourth-and-1 conversion late in the first half against the Redskins. Rams coach Jim Haslett was booed for not going for a fourth-and-1 at his own 40 with 4:43 left. The Rams punted, and after the Dolphins ate up three minutes of clock, St. Louis didn't have enough time to overcome a 16-12 deficit.

Fourth-and-1 was a huge play Sunday.

Five things I learned in Week 13

By John Clayton, ESPN.com

After four weeks of false starts and poor first-quarter performances, the Panthers' offense finally got off on the right foot. On Carolina's third possession against the Packers, QB Jake Delhomme executed a six-play, 42-yard drive that resulted in the first of four DeAngelo Williams touchdown runs. That 7-0 lead may not seem like a lot, but it was cause for celebration for the Panthers. In four previous first quarters, the Panthers generated only seven points and 76 total yards of offense, posting as many three-and-outs (five) as first downs.

What the Panthers learned in Sunday's 35-31 victory is that a good start can allow for a good finish. The Panthers jumped to a 21-10 first-half lead, which is important on the road. With the lead, Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers, who had two sacks, was able to rush quarterback Aaron Rodgers without having to worry too much about the run. They were also able to wear down the Packers' defense with conservative but safe running plays.

Entering Sunday, 21 teams had a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. At least five teams all but killed their chances. The Chargers, outplayed and outclassed by the Atlanta Falcons in a 22-16 loss, dropped to 4-8, three games behind the Broncos.

"I think [the postseason] is in jeopardy," Chargers QB Philip Rivers said. "But we're scratching and clawing and trying to get going.''

Face it, Philip: It never got going this year. Without LB Shawne Merriman, the Chargers haven't had much of a pass rush, and that exposed holes in the pass defense. Of late, the Chargers' offense has been spotty and inconsistent.

Like the Chargers in recent weeks, the Packers can't win key games. They've lost four of five and need to win their last four to get a shot at the NFC North title. The Bills, who lost 10-3 to the 49ers, are also pretenders. The Redskins dropped to 3-4 at home, losing to the Giants 23-7. Of the 21 teams that entered Sunday with hope, the Skins are averaging the fewest points per game (17.3). Finally, scoring isn't a problem for the Saints. Winning is. At 6-6, the Saints are all but done. In the NFC, it's going to take at least 10 wins to get a wild-card berth, and the Saints aren't consistent enough to win four in a row.

Thanksgiving is a weekend for homecomings, and a few players proved they can ruin a Thanksgiving party for their former fans. San Francisco 49ers cornerback Nate Clements and linebacker Takeo Spikes returned to Buffalo and kicked the stuffing out of the Bills' offense. Spikes was second on the Niners (behind linebacker Patrick Willis) in tackles with nine. He also had a forced fumble. Clements, who was burned for more than 200 yards by Terrell Owens in Week 12, played a solid game. Bills quarterbacks threw at him only three times, completing those underneath passes for only 23 yards. Clements was never tested downfield.

In San Diego, Michael Turner was a popular backup to LaDainian Tomlinson, but everyone knew he was going to leave. He was the top back in free agency and received a five-year, $34.5 million contract from Atlanta. Turner had 120 yards on 31 carries against the Chargers, while Tomlinson had 24 yards on 14 carries.

The Steelers exposed the limitations of Patriots QB Matt Cassel. Coming off back-to-back 400-yard games, Cassel's stock was soaring. But on Sunday he showed he's at the level of Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards and others. That might get him an $8 million-a-year contract, but it won't get him $10 million-plus. Cassel was 19-of-39 for 169 yards, with two interceptions and two lost fumbles. The result was a 33-10 loss at home.

The Steelers sacked Cassel five times and limited the effectiveness of WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker with their physicality. Welker suffered a minor injury, and Moss had two drops in the end zone. The Patriots have won four games against teams with records of .500 or better, but three of those teams are in the AFC East. It's going to be hard for New England to make it as a wild-card team and win a game against a good defensive team like the Steelers.

Say what you want about the Broncos' defense, but coach Mike Shanahan deserves a lot of credit for essentially clinching the AFC West. Sunday's victory over the Jets may not have been pretty, but the Broncos now have a three-game lead in the division and can clinch a playoff spot in the next two weeks.

Of course, the Broncos have issues, especially on defense. Cornerback Champ Bailey, safety Marlon McCree and linebackers D.J. Williams and Nate Webster were inactive Sunday. Shanahan was using undrafted rookies and guys off the street at linebacker and safety. Yet the Broncos beat Brett Favre on the road.

It helped that Favre had an off day. He completed 23 of 43 passes for 247 yards, but was only 4-of-11 for 59 yards on throws of more than 10 yards. On third down, Favre was 3-for-9 for 36 yards. Before the season, Shanahan kept telling people the Broncos would make playoffs. Experts looked at their bad defense and said, "No way." Well, Shanahan was right, even though teams are completing 68.1 percent of their passes against Denver. Here's the bad news: They will probably host the Colts in the first round.